A little fun speculation on Valby's strategy. She may have waited to declare until today in order to see who she would face in each race and also to see how fully she could recover in 5 days following a fairly hard effort. In this scenario, Rogers, Smith, and Schweizer are important b/c they also declared in both the 5 and 10. If Valby recovered well, she may believe that if she forces those runners into a hard effort in the 5 (around 14:45 - 48 if she can do that), they may be weakened in the 10, improving her chances of top 3 in the 10 even if she cannot hold top 3 in the 5. Of course, this assumes she believes she can beat all the others in the 10 except for Kelati and potentially Henes.
I would imagine that most runners in the 5k/10k are already prepping for a hard effort in the 5k, regardless of Valby. Last year Monson went out at 14:4x's pace and there were a lot of blow ups.
However if Valby takes off on the prelim a la Agate Caune at worlds last year, I could see a scenario where no one goes with her (especially if Cranny, Schweizer or ESP are in the same heat and decide not to follow).
In the final however I think the field will try to go with her, like they did with Monson last year. This would create a breakaway at some point with the top contenders.
I think Valby was trying to practice not leading at NCAAs, but that may backfire on her in the final.
A little fun speculation on Valby's strategy. She may have waited to declare until today in order to see who she would face in each race and also to see how fully she could recover in 5 days following a fairly hard effort. In this scenario, Rogers, Smith, and Schweizer are important b/c they also declared in both the 5 and 10. If Valby recovered well, she may believe that if she forces those runners into a hard effort in the 5 (around 14:45 - 48 if she can do that), they may be weakened in the 10, improving her chances of top 3 in the 10 even if she cannot hold top 3 in the 5. Of course, this assumes she believes she can beat all the others in the 10 except for Kelati and potentially Henes.
I would imagine that most runners in the 5k/10k are already prepping for a hard effort in the 5k, regardless of Valby. Last year Monson went out at 14:4x's pace and there were a lot of blow ups.
However if Valby takes off on the prelim a la Agate Caune at worlds last year, I could see a scenario where no one goes with her (especially if Cranny, Schweizer or ESP are in the same heat and decide not to follow).
In the final however I think the field will try to go with her, like they did with Monson last year. This would create a breakaway at some point with the top contenders.
I think Valby was trying to practice not leading at NCAAs, but that may backfire on her in the final.
It’ll be interesting to see who is in which heat, etc. Example: Just by chance, might all the favorites be in the same heat and some don’t make it to the final?
It’ll be interesting to see who is in which heat, etc. Example: Just by chance, might all the favorites be in the same heat and some don’t make it to the final?
I certainly doubt they’ll out Valby, ESP, Cranny amd Schweizer all in the same heat
if Valby takes off on the prelim a la Agate Caune at worlds last year, I could see a scenario where no one goes with her (especially if Cranny, Schweizer or ESP are in the same heat and decide not to follow).
In the final however I think the field will try to go with her, like they did with Monson last year. This would create a breakaway at some point with the top contenders.
I think Valby was trying to practice not leading at NCAAs, but that may backfire on her in the final.
(1) Why would Valby take off in the prelim? She ran very measured efforts in her Regionals race and in the 10000m at Natty’s before her hard effort in the 5000m.
(2) I don’t see how in any way what she did at Natty’s somehow “backfire’s” at the trials. Something that has gotten very little attention in Valby’s performances this year is how incredibly she can measure out her effort level. (For example, the string of consistent 71’s at Regionals was uncannily good.) Going clear back to cross-country, she seemed to know just how far she could push herself without blowing up, regardless of how close competitors were (or were not) behind her.
I expect we’ll see something similar in the Final: she’ll immediately start clicking off 70-71’s, and come what may.
if Valby takes off on the prelim a la Agate Caune at worlds last year, I could see a scenario where no one goes with her (especially if Cranny, Schweizer or ESP are in the same heat and decide not to follow).
In the final however I think the field will try to go with her, like they did with Monson last year. This would create a breakaway at some point with the top contenders.
I think Valby was trying to practice not leading at NCAAs, but that may backfire on her in the final.
(1) Why would Valby take off in the prelim? She ran very measured efforts in her Regionals race and in the 10000m at Natty’s before her hard effort in the 5000m.
(2) I don’t see how in any way what she did at Natty’s somehow “backfire’s” at the trials. Something that has gotten very little attention in Valby’s performances this year is how incredibly she can measure out her effort level. (For example, the string of consistent 71’s at Regionals was uncannily good.) Going clear back to cross-country, she seemed to know just how far she could push herself without blowing up, regardless of how close competitors were (or were not) behind her.
I expect we’ll see something similar in the Final: she’ll immediately start clicking off 70-71’s, and come what may.
One thing to note in that Regionals race was that she was using a watch, clicking off the 400m splits, and visually checking the splits. She was likely instructed to hit those splits. In the final, her coach may very well tell her to just meter it out and run by feel, and go as fast as can. She can check splits on the trackside clocks, and see where she is at relative to competitors on the big screen. Instead of towing Olemomoi, the rookie will likely be towing the seasoned pros in ESP, Cranny and Schweizer.
if Valby takes off on the prelim a la Agate Caune at worlds last year, I could see a scenario where no one goes with her (especially if Cranny, Schweizer or ESP are in the same heat and decide not to follow).
In the final however I think the field will try to go with her, like they did with Monson last year. This would create a breakaway at some point with the top contenders.
I think Valby was trying to practice not leading at NCAAs, but that may backfire on her in the final.
(1) Why would Valby take off in the prelim? She ran very measured efforts in her Regionals race and in the 10000m at Natty’s before her hard effort in the 5000m.
(2) I don’t see how in any way what she did at Natty’s somehow “backfire’s” at the trials. Something that has gotten very little attention in Valby’s performances this year is how incredibly she can measure out her effort level. (For example, the string of consistent 71’s at Regionals was uncannily good.) Going clear back to cross-country, she seemed to know just how far she could push herself without blowing up, regardless of how close competitors were (or were not) behind her.
I expect we’ll see something similar in the Final: she’ll immediately start clicking off 70-71’s, and come what may.
well we have to see how it will play out in the prelims. There are about 10 runners (maybe 5 per heat?) that can go about 15:00 or faster, plus others who might be there such as Morgan, Tuohy, Hertenstein. If it comes down to a kick off a slow pace that might not be in Valby's interest.
(1) Why would Valby take off in the prelim? She ran very measured efforts in her Regionals race and in the 10000m at Natty’s before her hard effort in the 5000m.
(2) I don’t see how in any way what she did at Natty’s somehow “backfire’s” at the trials. Something that has gotten very little attention in Valby’s performances this year is how incredibly she can measure out her effort level. (For example, the string of consistent 71’s at Regionals was uncannily good.) Going clear back to cross-country, she seemed to know just how far she could push herself without blowing up, regardless of how close competitors were (or were not) behind her.
I expect we’ll see something similar in the Final: she’ll immediately start clicking off 70-71’s, and come what may.
well we have to see how it will play out in the prelims. There are about 10 runners (maybe 5 per heat?) that can go about 15:00 or faster, plus others who might be there such as Morgan, Tuohy, Hertenstein. If it comes down to a kick off a slow pace that might not be in Valby's interest.
Correction to my earlier post, in the Regionals 5000m, Valby clicked off the last nine laps that were all within 1 second of each other! They were ~72’s, and I think she was wearing Vaporfly’s.
I suppose there is some gamble in the prelims, but for athletes with 15min+ PB’s, they may not have much of a kick left in a 15min race. How fast she runs will depend upon who is in her heat.
well we have to see how it will play out in the prelims. There are about 10 runners (maybe 5 per heat?) that can go about 15:00 or faster, plus others who might be there such as Morgan, Tuohy, Hertenstein. If it comes down to a kick off a slow pace that might not be in Valby's interest.
Correction to my earlier post, in the Regionals 5000m, Valby clicked off the last nine laps that were all within 1 second of each other! They were ~72’s, and I think she was wearing Vaporfly’s.
I suppose there is some gamble in the prelims, but for athletes with 15min+ PB’s, they may not have much of a kick left in a 15min race. How fast she runs will depend upon who is in her heat.
She can just start out following for a couple of laps, then click off 72-74’s for a while, then ratchet it down until there are only 3-4 max left that can threaten.
Correction to my earlier post, in the Regionals 5000m, Valby clicked off the last nine laps that were all within 1 second of each other! They were ~72’s, and I think she was wearing Vaporfly’s.
I suppose there is some gamble in the prelims, but for athletes with 15min+ PB’s, they may not have much of a kick left in a 15min race. How fast she runs will depend upon who is in her heat.
She can just start out following for a couple of laps, then click off 72-74’s for a while, then ratchet it down until there are only 3-4 max left that can threaten.
Or alternatively, as Blank suggested, get away early. 👍
Correction to my earlier post, in the Regionals 5000m, Valby clicked off the last nine laps that were all within 1 second of each other! They were ~72’s, and I think she was wearing Vaporfly’s.
I suppose there is some gamble in the prelims, but for athletes with 15min+ PB’s, they may not have much of a kick left in a 15min race. How fast she runs will depend upon who is in her heat.
She can just start out following for a couple of laps, then click off 72-74’s for a while, then ratchet it down until there are only 3-4 max left that can threaten.
well, for example Donaghu closed the 14:58 in 63, Buchalski and Nichols in 68 for 15:01 at the Grand Prix. Rogers (14:55) and Tuohy closed in 68 last July for the times.
She can just start out following for a couple of laps, then click off 72-74’s for a while, then ratchet it down until there are only 3-4 max left that can threaten.
well, for example Donaghu closed the 14:58 in 63, Buchalski and Nichols in 68 for 15:01 at the Grand Prix. Rogers (14:55) and Tuohy closed in 68 last July for the times.
We shall see how it plays out.
We have never seen Valby close a 3k and up race faster than 68s. That is really my point. We know that there are enough competitors in the field that can close faster than that. In the final it will be in her interest to take it our hot. I also don't see why she would hang out for a kick in the prelims either, since the fast even pace seems to work the best for her.
well, for example Donaghu closed the 14:58 in 63, Buchalski and Nichols in 68 for 15:01 at the Grand Prix. Rogers (14:55) and Tuohy closed in 68 last July for the times.
We shall see how it plays out.
We have never seen Valby close a 3k and up race faster than 68s. That is really my point. We know that there are enough competitors in the field that can close faster than that. In the final it will be in her interest to take it our hot. I also don't see why she would hang out for a kick in the prelims either, since the fast even pace seems to work the best for her.
But why wait until 400m to go? Going back to indoors, she has closed out some 5k’s with some decently fast 1600’s (without checking.)
Parker's new agent Kyle Valby keeping us in suspense til tomorrow.
Ha ha . . . see that.
From a fan looking to be entertained, PV is the gift that keeps on giving . . .
My thoughts, as a fan, is that I just want women to qualify that actually have a goal of competing at the Olmpics. I am tired of seeing our distance women show up big for the US national championships/trials, only to completely crap out when they get to the world stage. Even considering the gap between the US women and the fastest women in the world, our US qualifiers show up at the world championships often looking nothing like they did a month before (comparing them to their previous selves). I believe this is because the true goal for many of them is TO QUALIFY. It has been proven that when you are working toward a meaningful goal there is energy and motivation, and the minute that goal is met the energy dies. I believe this is why our US womens distance runners so often fall so far off their US championship performances. I am cheering hard for women who will actually be there to compete in Paris and not just have a personal experience of being there. Alicia Monson competed at worlds. Elise Cranny did not. She looked nothing like her US Championship self at worlds. Weini Kelati ran so well with the top group at worlds XC, I think she will bring it in Paris. I am also cheering for Parker Valby for this reason. The bit of arrogance that has been noted of late could be helpful if she makes it to the starting line in Paris. I could see her trying to run with the Kenyans and Ethiopians and I would love to see someone try. Our women are so grateful to get there and then either run so safe they don't even register or they are plagued with issues that keep them from running well. If ESP runs both the 1500 and the 5000 in Paris it could be the best thing ever for US women. She will bring the fire. I wish there was a factor that considered that in determining the team. Who has proven that they intend to compete on the world stage and not just qualify for the team.
Well, you need to consider that on the World Stage, the Americans are a minute or two slower than the East Africans in the 10000m, and it took Monson two or three years at altitude to get her 10000m time close to 30min. Kelati has been at altitude for at least six years, with a 10000m PB of 30:33.
Realistically, if Valby makes it to Paris, I’m interested to see what she can run with faster women pulling her along, and how she stacks up against the contemporary Scot, Megan Keith, the Finn Nathalie Blomqvist, the Aussie Lauren Ryan, etc.
My thoughts, as a fan, is that I just want women to qualify that actually have a goal of competing at the Olmpics. I am tired of seeing our distance women show up big for the US national championships/trials, only to completely crap out when they get to the world stage. Even considering the gap between the US women and the fastest women in the world, our US qualifiers show up at the world championships often looking nothing like they did a month before (comparing them to their previous selves). I believe this is because the true goal for many of them is TO QUALIFY. It has been proven that when you are working toward a meaningful goal there is energy and motivation, and the minute that goal is met the energy dies. I believe this is why our US womens distance runners so often fall so far off their US championship performances. I am cheering hard for women who will actually be there to compete in Paris and not just have a personal experience of being there. Alicia Monson competed at worlds. Elise Cranny did not. She looked nothing like her US Championship self at worlds. Weini Kelati ran so well with the top group at worlds XC, I think she will bring it in Paris. I am also cheering for Parker Valby for this reason. The bit of arrogance that has been noted of late could be helpful if she makes it to the starting line in Paris. I could see her trying to run with the Kenyans and Ethiopians and I would love to see someone try. Our women are so grateful to get there and then either run so safe they don't even register or they are plagued with issues that keep them from running well. If ESP runs both the 1500 and the 5000 in Paris it could be the best thing ever for US women. She will bring the fire. I wish there was a factor that considered that in determining the team. Who has proven that they intend to compete on the world stage and not just qualify for the team.
I fully agree. Most of these women ESP and maybe Cranny and Schweizer excluded have the mere goal of making the Olympic team so they can brag to everyone how they’re Olympians. (One 5K contender in particular I’m thinking of but won’t mention because I don’t feel liked getting cursed out but a certain poster). instead of taking the Olympics even more seriously to represent our country and actually race their heart out, some of them act like it’s party time and their job is done, ready for all the photo ops. Sad.
We have never seen Valby close a 3k and up race faster than 68s. That is really my point. We know that there are enough competitors in the field that can close faster than that. In the final it will be in her interest to take it our hot. I also don't see why she would hang out for a kick in the prelims either, since the fast even pace seems to work the best for her.
But why wait until 400m to go? Going back to indoors, she has closed out some 5k’s with some decently fast 1600’s (without checking.)
I don't disagree, to a point. I'm not sure she could win a 1600 race against this level of competition if the first 3400 is too slow either.
Well, you need to consider that on the World Stage, the Americans are a minute or two slower than the East Africans in the 10000m, and it took Monson two or three years at altitude to get her 10000m time close to 30min. Kelati has been at altitude for at least six years, with a 10000m PB of 30:33.
Realistically, if Valby makes it to Paris, I’m interested to see what she can run with faster women pulling her along, and how she stacks up against the contemporary Scot, Megan Keith, the Finn Nathalie Blomqvist, the Aussie Lauren Ryan, etc.
I also want you to consider the cultural, economic and training conditions that Westerners are faced with compared to the Ethiopians. The best young US distance athletes are toiling around in the NCAA, while the Ethiopians are sending teams of well-coached teenagers simply living at 7000ft, and going up sometimes weekly to 10000ft to train, in ideal weather.