I've always thought Colin was the greatest of the talents between the two sets of brothers. Not only does he have the most speed, but he is built like an ostrich. He's always flown over the ground in a way that looks effortless.
Bone density and speed usually peak around 24-25, which lines up with Oct. 28 2027 and 2028 for Colin. It's not at all out of the question he could be an American Record holder in the 1500 around the 2028 Olympics and then the 5000 and/or 10000 AR holder before the 2032 Olympics.
Really? I thought it was Aaron. He ran 1:48 as a junior then won NXN senior year. I think out of every NXN/FL/RL champ, he had the fastest 800pb going into it. He also ran an 8:01i 3k at 16 years old. My ideas about 'talent' have been shifting as of late though. Starting to think the Youngs and Sahlmans are pretty even talent-wise, with the Youngs probably tending towards longer stuff and the Sahlmans to shorter stuff.
In 2022, Nico's sophomore season, he ran 13:11, just off the 13:08 record (Nur ran 13:06 same race), and came 3rd at NCAAs behind 2 covid-seniors. Now, in Colin's sophomore season, he ran 3:33, just off the 3:33 record, and beat the NCAA 2022 1500m, 2023 mile, 2023 1500, 2023 3k, and 2024 champs in the process. Clear threat for the title. Surprisingly similar timing to Nico.
Still, I'm hesitant to say the Youngs are naturally gifted at longer stuff, and the Sahlmans are naturally gifted at shorter stuff, because I think it's a bit misleading. Even though Nico probably gets beat in an 800, in a fast mile, Nico is still beating Colin. He's fast enough at 800 that he could break 3:30 (given he had the fitness for it), and at that point, the difference in raw speed is negligible in a distance race. Also, Leo ran 4:00 as a junior in March running solo after 1k. If he hadn't gotten sick, he could've broken 4 as a junior, which Colin didn't do. He ran 3:39 a few times as a senior, which is only a bit slower than Colin's 3:56. Leo only ran 1:50, but again, it seems like that difference in speed is pretty negligible once you get to the mile, much less the 3k/5k. Also, Aaron ran 8:01 as a 16 year old, and won NXN at 17. I think he'll probably end up a 1500/3k type, but his 5k potential is underrated imo.
Yes, I absolutely stand by what I said. The 1:48.91 Aaron ran as a jr was a sort of gift from Colin, who led wire-to-wire in that race if memory serves me correctly, with the winning time of 1:48.84. I think that may still be Aaron's lifetime pr for 800? If Colin had the perfect rabbit in that race instead of being the perfect rabbit for his brother, it's not at all unreasonable to think he was in 1:47.xx shape that day.
Aaron has always looked more like an elite cyclist, just like the Young twins. Huge motors all three of them, but too much natural muscle mass. Michael Woods vibes.
Colin and Nico have always been the two biggest longterm talents among the 5 being built like birds. You have to factor in their physiques and be able to project out how they will mature when looking at their high school times.
Nico's already shown that he can run a very fast mile. He's a 1:48 flat guy with a hurdle, which is not great for a miler but for a 12:57/26:52 guy it is very good. Rupp was a 1:49 800m guy together with his 3:50 mile, pre-super shoes. The 3:50 mile would probably be 3:48-49 with the shoes, so we can start there for the estimate of Nico's current ability. Nico ran 3:57 for the mile at 7,000 feet, beating Sahlman by six seconds. Sahlman ran 3:53 at BU the next race. So, how is Nico not a 3:48 guy? At this point, that's only three seconds faster than Sahlman's equivalent. This doesn't mean that I'm endorsing Nico to race championship 1500s just yet. I don't know that he has the acceleration to beat milers at their own distance in championship races. But he can run a very fast paced mile.
Really? I thought it was Aaron. He ran 1:48 as a junior then won NXN senior year. I think out of every NXN/FL/RL champ, he had the fastest 800pb going into it. He also ran an 8:01i 3k at 16 years old. My ideas about 'talent' have been shifting as of late though. Starting to think the Youngs and Sahlmans are pretty even talent-wise, with the Youngs probably tending towards longer stuff and the Sahlmans to shorter stuff.
In 2022, Nico's sophomore season, he ran 13:11, just off the 13:08 record (Nur ran 13:06 same race), and came 3rd at NCAAs behind 2 covid-seniors. Now, in Colin's sophomore season, he ran 3:33, just off the 3:33 record, and beat the NCAA 2022 1500m, 2023 mile, 2023 1500, 2023 3k, and 2024 champs in the process. Clear threat for the title. Surprisingly similar timing to Nico.
Still, I'm hesitant to say the Youngs are naturally gifted at longer stuff, and the Sahlmans are naturally gifted at shorter stuff, because I think it's a bit misleading. Even though Nico probably gets beat in an 800, in a fast mile, Nico is still beating Colin. He's fast enough at 800 that he could break 3:30 (given he had the fitness for it), and at that point, the difference in raw speed is negligible in a distance race. Also, Leo ran 4:00 as a junior in March running solo after 1k. If he hadn't gotten sick, he could've broken 4 as a junior, which Colin didn't do. He ran 3:39 a few times as a senior, which is only a bit slower than Colin's 3:56. Leo only ran 1:50, but again, it seems like that difference in speed is pretty negligible once you get to the mile, much less the 3k/5k. Also, Aaron ran 8:01 as a 16 year old, and won NXN at 17. I think he'll probably end up a 1500/3k type, but his 5k potential is underrated imo.
Yes, I absolutely stand by what I said. The 1:48.91 Aaron ran as a jr was a sort of gift from Colin, who led wire-to-wire in that race if memory serves me correctly, with the winning time of 1:48.84. I think that may still be Aaron's lifetime pr for 800? If Colin had the perfect rabbit in that race instead of being the perfect rabbit for his brother, it's not at all unreasonable to think he was in 1:47.xx shape that day.
Aaron has always looked more like an elite cyclist, just like the Young twins. Huge motors all three of them, but too much natural muscle mass. Michael Woods vibes.
Colin and Nico have always been the two biggest longterm talents among the 5 being built like birds. You have to factor in their physiques and be able to project out how they will mature when looking at their high school times.
I'd agree that the Young twins do seem to have more muscle mass than optimal, but I've gotta disagree with Aaron, he's got a typical 800 meter runner's build.
What is the story on the pacer in the hat who took them through in 2:52. Pretty damn good pacing. LaSalle?
Pacer was Kieran Lumb, from Canada, and a year ago part of UW; made the world indoor 1500 final, likely motivated to provide optimal pace for his UW buddies.
I think he can go under every single one of these. I'm not shying away from that 800 either. He just PR'd 5s in the 1500. That is obviously going to do something to his 800 time. I do believe he can smash that 5000 will a little more focus on it. If Lex Young ran 13:34 last year, Colin can run well under that. It's all about when Mike Smith wants to get him ready for it. I'm still not convinced his best event is not the 5000 in the next Olympic cycle.
Highly underestimating his strength here. He ran that 13:38 in a relaxed win, the race was not fast but he dominated Hasty, Daschbach, Maier, and Young. That's a talented group. I would bet he's not too far off Quax and Las Heras aerobically. Since he ran that 7:48 he's dropped his 1500/mile another couple seconds and I'd bet his 3k has improved more than that. I'd say something like:
48.5
1:46.0
3:33.5
7:42.0
13:25.0
28:30.0
With potential to hit 1:45.x and 3:31 over the summer.
Highly underestimating his strength here. He ran that 13:38 in a relaxed win, the race was not fast but he dominated Hasty, Daschbach, Maier, and Young. That's a talented group. I would bet he's not too far off Quax and Las Heras aerobically. Since he ran that 7:48 he's dropped his 1500/mile another couple seconds and I'd bet his 3k has improved more than that. I'd say something like:
48.5
1:46.0
3:33.5
7:42.0
13:25.0
28:30.0
With potential to hit 1:45.x and 3:31 over the summer.
Great, he's now advanced to the hypothetical final of the hypothetical Olympics. He's now going to be on the Wheaties box and retire.
Highly underestimating his strength here. He ran that 13:38 in a relaxed win, the race was not fast but he dominated Hasty, Daschbach, Maier, and Young. That's a talented group. I would bet he's not too far off Quax and Las Heras aerobically. Since he ran that 7:48 he's dropped his 1500/mile another couple seconds and I'd bet his 3k has improved more than that. I'd say something like:
48.5
1:46.0
3:33.5
7:42.0
13:25.0
28:30.0
With potential to hit 1:45.x and 3:31 over the summer.
Ahead of schedule. I'd say 3:31 is already in reach. He's gonna really give Hobbs and Cooper a run for their money for that third spot.
Highly underestimating his strength here. He ran that 13:38 in a relaxed win, the race was not fast but he dominated Hasty, Daschbach, Maier, and Young. That's a talented group. I would bet he's not too far off Quax and Las Heras aerobically. Since he ran that 7:48 he's dropped his 1500/mile another couple seconds and I'd bet his 3k has improved more than that. I'd say something like:
48.5
1:46.0
3:33.5
7:42.0
13:25.0
28:30.0
With potential to hit 1:45.x and 3:31 over the summer.
He was also the best HS XC runner in the country as a senior, so I believe his upside in the 5000m is similar to what it is for 1500m.
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