If the training goal is to break x time in a race, its very rational to train with that goal in mind. The 5k+2 min pace is arbitrary - basically just a baseline for what should just about always be easy, barring exceptions like the day after a very hard workout, a ten mile and up race, etc.
Its smarter to have an idea of what range your easy runs should be in typically than to try to derive this pace from some metrics. I think your metrics can help establish this range, but its always changing based on the condition of the athlete that day, the improvement in fitness of the athlete, the closer to peak the athlete is, etc.
In short, I advocate training by feel with the idea that going a little bit on the side of caution for easy runs will probably build enough conditioning to get through the workouts needed to pr.
An aerobic base should do one thing - get you prepared to go through a periodization for your event healthy.
So the whole topic of the thread - how slow can you run and still improve is kind of moot. Theoretically there is a pace you could run at for 16 hours a day, but who cares. For most marathon and down athletes a pace that will allow them to do 100-150 week after week should suffice. If you're always running in the 6's, you need to read this thread. If you're always running in the 9's, you need to leave the gps at home and just run.