Tuohy will probably win. If you compare the results for both runners to last year's conference championships they're both about the same. The idea that Valby has improved a great deal from last year is just wrong. Maybe she came in with slightly better fitness from summer training but I think it's tough to really make huge improvements when you're already tops in the college system. Anyway I think it'll be a fairly close race but tuohy Will probably have another gear like usual.
I’m not in a either camp to say Valby, or Tuohy, will “probably” win. I think it could go either way, and I don’t discount the Kenyans, either.
Personally, I never said Valby “improved a great deal”. I do think, based on Nuttycombe, she has come into this season at least as fit and as strong as last fall, if not more so. I think Parker made the statement at Nuttycombe, “I’m back!”
You are correct we can’t draw a conclusion from the conference race two weeks later that she is fitter than last year. But we can’t conclude the inverse, either. What we do know is that like last year at this time, she is still displaying a very high level of fitness.
I can't discount the fact that Valby beat Tuohy by 12 seconds... In the rain, cold and mud. Given Tuohy's issues in last spring, it seems reasonable to question if she is truly 'back' yet. Tuohy ran a slowish final 2k off a pace that is within her wheelhouse at Nutty. She won ACCs but by a lower margin than last year (although she did take the CR) so no big conclusions there.
It does seem like Valby has improved a lot, even since June. I am basing this more off Nuttycombe than SECs which had a loaded field.
If I look at what we have seen in season then Valby seems more likely to win. But, it is also possible Tuohy could pull it out given her history if she is in top shape by NCAAs.
Lemngole can't be totally ruled out either. And someone else could surprise.
Reasonable analysis. Valby clearly is the favorite at this point but we have seen many favorites lose though the years. It is baffling that many Tuohy fans are offended to have this conversation.
I posted last year and got a lot of downvotes by saying that Valby seems to have a lot of improvement methods not explored. In a podcast shortly after nationals last year, she talked about how bad her upper body strength was (she struggled with push ups), and how she hated swimming laps and didn't do it much. I made the comment that, aside from altitude training, Tuohy was pretty much doing everything within her power to be fast and look at how close they were at nationals. If Valby addressed her holes (worked on upper body strength, learn to run tangents) that could be a big difference. She got new coaches. I think they have encouraged her to address the holes in her training, and she is stronger (and thus faster) than last year. When she easily pulled away from Tuohy at Nuttycomb that was my impression.
I think that Coach Henes has a lot of experience and likely has a good plan for Tuohy. Tuohy is tough, and has a wealth of experience at being a national champion. But Valby is tough as well, and that ill fated double attempt by Tuohy last spring gave Valby a taste of victory and unleashed a beast. She is not content to come in second to Tuohy anymore They are both NCAA champions, and on a more even playing field. I honestly have no idea who is going to win on the 18th. I love them both. Tuohy is my slight favorite just because of her awesome history and consistency and this likely being her last NCAA race, but Valby has more than paid her dues. She deserves to win as well, and watching her become a champ after what happened last year will be a great story. Tuohy kind of humiliated her last year (no malice, just the way she took her down). You can't blame Valby for wanting redemption. She will be motivated.
I watched the PAC-12 and was impressed with Bunnage. She runs a lot like Tuohy did as a high school sophomore. She is gutsy and talented, and I would not count her out, even after her falling back at Nuttycomb. She will be motivated. Also, the Alabama runners - the fact that both ran less than expected made me think they might have been running on tired legs. Conference races aren't the big prize. Would not count either out based on SEC's.
NC State has some last timers, and they are going for the 3 peat. I expect that every top player who can possibly run will toe the line and bring their best. I would not be at all surprised if NC State pulls out the victory, as well as Tuohy in the individual race. They will be incredibly motivated. But this year both contests are very much in doubt. I, for one, am looking forward to seeing what happens.
Yeah Valby has momentum and Tuohy may have lost some confidence. (No way to know that for sure, just a guess).
Henes is a good coach, but she seemed to make some missteps with Tuohy last spring. If Tuohy was si burned out she's dnfing in practice idk why they missed it ... Maybe they were hoping it would turn around. Hopefully it has.
Likewise, I too would not be surprised by any outcome at this point.
I also agree that Bunnage could surprise, although I don't really see her winning. She is on paper almost as fast as Olemomoi, maybe better at short distances. Incredible for an 18 yo.
You missed my point. She ran 18:25 last year so why should 18:37 shock us?
In her SEC 2023 Post-Race interview, Valby was a little surprised her time was not faster, considering how hard she ran, but she felt the traction, due to sand, was questionable in some areas.
NOTE: Conditions in 2023 were a bit more uncomfortable than in 2022 (see below), and the 2022 course may have been a bit short.
Conditions: Temp/DewPoint (degF), wind Oct 28, 2022….18:25.9 TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED TIME: 18:16 65/53, 10mph wind Comments: groomed golf course fairways, breeze to cool off; Course MAY HAVE BEEN SHORT.
Oct 27, 2023…. 18:37.5 TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED TIME: 18:16 72/64, 3mph wind Comments: Sandy side of golf course, no breeze to cool off, sun higher in sky (1hr later than 2022 race); Course distance PROBABLY ACCURATE.
I reviewed some threads from last year. With regard to last year’s SEC course being short, the number 200m was being bandied about. IIRC, some posters, including FastTuohy, even looked at satellite imagery to back up their analysis.
I reviewed some threads from last year. With regard to last year’s SEC course being short, the number 200m was being bandied about. IIRC, some posters, including FastTuohy, even looked at satellite imagery to back up their analysis.
There's a tendency here to assume any time difference is due to a course being short or long. Fact is there are 100+ factors that can determine times besides distance.
Two perfectly measured courses, one with flat hard pan and the other with hills, rain, wind, mud, thick grass, rocky trails could be a minute different.
In fact the exact same course can ran a minute different depending on conditions.
Believe me, in my earlier post, I did not try and equate the Temp Adjusted times for each year to come out exactly the same (18:12); that’s just how the data shook out.
Believe me, in my earlier post, I did not try and equate the Temp Adjusted times for each year to come out exactly the same (18:12); that’s just how the data shook out.
Believe me, in my earlier post, I did not try and equate the Temp Adjusted times for each year to come out exactly the same (18:12); that’s just how the data shook out.
Those SEC races are hard to gauge. Are you saying she is faster or slower this year, or exactly the same?
Also, I was looking at some of the men's efforts in other races. Bosley beat Robinson by 9 seconds in their opener, and then Robinson beat Bosely by 8 seconds at Nutty. It is just a reminder that 1) a lot can change 2) athletes may be at different places in training 3) people may be reading too much into to Tuohy's loss as this happens with leaders on the men's side too but doesn't get the same attention.
Maybe you are reading not enough into the delta at Nuttycombe. Valby glided away while Tuohy grimmaced as she dropepd back. It looked like Valby was at 80% while Tuohy was at 100%.
Those SEC races are hard to gauge. Are you saying she is faster or slower this year, or exactly the same?
There was a fair bit of analysis on this forum last year strongly suggesting last year’s SEC course was as much as 200m short (although Solinsky said the Ole Miss coach said that wasn’t the case).
Also, I was looking at some of the men's efforts in other races. Bosley beat Robinson by 9 seconds in their opener, and then Robinson beat Bosely by 8 seconds at Nutty.
In the following interview, Robinson talks about his effort at his first race of the season at Panorama Farms:
Ky Robinson, a senior at Stanford representing Australia, took third in the men's 8-kilometer race in 23:29.4 at the Virginia Invitational at the Panorama Farms course in Earlysville, Va. Robinson helped the Cardinal place ni...
Those SEC races are hard to gauge. Are you saying she is faster or slower this year, or exactly the same?
There was a fair bit of analysis on this forum last year strongly suggesting last year’s SEC course was as much as 200m short (although Solinsky said the Ole Miss coach said that wasn’t the case).
200m would equate to it being ~38 seconds short.
For the fast readers of the threads, I didn’t spell out the obvious conclusion, which is IF last year’s SEC course was short, then she very well could be faster this year, maybe significantly so.
Thanks. Sounds like he got a late start and is pacing himself with an eye toward the Olympics. He may win in two weeks. A lot of competition on the men's side, however.
Also, I was looking at some of the men's efforts in other races. Bosley beat Robinson by 9 seconds in their opener, and then Robinson beat Bosely by 8 seconds at Nutty.
In the following interview, Robinson talks about his effort at his first race of the season at Panorama Farms:
