To run 2:04, it seems like a runner needs low 27 10k speed. Very few of our runners can do this and even less try the marathon.
For someone who has an education and career goals, the marathon is a tough thing to consider. You can race only a few times each year and there is a large risk of failure. it is not an attractive proposition for someone who has alternatives.
Thanks for the link. I can't make heads or tails out of it but I do see 130 and 135 in places. It's five years old as well. I imagine there could be someone here and there in the US hitting that sort of mileage consistently but it doesn't seem like it's remotely common in the US now.
I know the kenyans do a bit more speed/fartlek in the long run, but otherwise are things really that different to the US methods? threshold, race pace, LR, doubles and easy running and high milleage seems pretty universal bar those using norweigan double thresholds.
When I said that of countries producing loads of fast marathoners the US is most like Japan I meant that Japanese kids grow up watching TV, playing video games, doing loads of school work, can realistically aspire to a white collar job as an adult, etc. That does not seem to hold true for kids in Ethiopia, Kenya, etc. and it seems logical to believe the things East African kids do convey some sort of advantage for distance running. Yes, there are significant cultural differences between the US and Japan. I believe lots of Japanese kids walk to school and back instead of riding a school bus and that might lay a good foundation for later distance running success, though it doesn't seem to have worked that way for me. But it wasn't as long a distance as you describe. I know it's not a perfect comparison and I mostly did mean both are First World countries with similar standards of living.
I'm curious if more Americans adopted Jakob's/Norwegian training methods with LT1/LT2 thresholds and eventually doubles, that would help the reach their natural abilities faster and close the gap. I may be wrong, so I get that and I know that may be off-base too, but just throwing it out there.
Loved your posts over the years, HRE and Sage--you guys seem to know what you are talking about.
Thank you! I'm always skeptical of "flavor of the month" training. I know people seem to love any training description that has the word "threshold" in it and what the Ingebrigstens do is worth looking at. The problem is that the really sexy bit, the double threshold stuff, is really the roof on the building.
Jakob began seriously training for distance running when he was something like 10 or 12 years old. And that mostly involved covering a fair amount of distance. How many Westerners do that? Most of us don't go out for cross country or track until we get cut from the basketball or baseball team in high school and even then don't run all that many miles because most US high school teams don't. I'd bet most US collegiate runners are just beginning to cover the kind of training distances Jakob was doing in his mid teens. (Proving that would be very difficult so maybe I wouldn't bet a huge amount here.) There's been a thread here titled "Adapting the Norwegian Method for Lower Volume" or something like that. Well, a big part of that method involves reasonably high volume. No matter how you adapt it for low volume training you're only adopting part of the method and I think if you're only going to do part of this method you'd do better adopting the higher volume part unless you're someone who actually has a good background of miles.
Going a bit further with this (that'll teach you to say you enjoy my posts) I'm not sure how good a comparison between Americans and Norwegians works. Lydiard predicted that East Africans would be the best distance runners on earth well before they became so because he looked at how they lived, how physically active they are from the time they can walk, much more so than most westerners. I think there's a bit of that going on with Norwegians who are always described as having perhaps the most active and outdoor oriented way of life of any western nation. So yes, doing what the Norwegians do could work well but I think you'd need to do all of what they do and not just skim off the sexy looking top layer.
People who talk about how bad US marathoners are keep comparing them to East Africans and occasionally to the Japanese. Obviously we're not in the same league as those countries are. But who is? Nine of the first ten today in Berlin are East Africans. I counted ten of the top thirty coming from from countries other than East Africa but at least half of those runners have names that look like they could have been born in East Africa.
Yes, we could take a hard look at US men's marathoning and ask what's wrong. We could also do that for really any other country aside from perhaps Japan. If you compare US marathoning with Japan's, which I think is the most relevant comparison because the typical Japanese runner grows up in a country much like the US, two differences stand out. One is that the Japanese like the marathon, their best distance runners focus on the marathon and begin racing it seriously early in their careers. They don't spend years focused on the track. US runners really don't like the marathon and so our best runners stay with the 5 and 10. If they run marathons it's not until late in their careers and they're kind of past their primes. If Klecker, Fisher, etc., were Japanese they'd have been running seriously at the marathon we'd have much faster times. As it is our marathoners are kind of second tier guys. I don't mean that as a knock but they most likely wouldn't be running marathons if they were comparably good on the track as Fisher, etc.
The other difference is that US runners as a group don't run the mileage the Japanese do from what I've seen. If I'm wrong about this I'd be happy to be corrected, but from what I can tell no one in the US is going over 120 a week consistently. That's kind of low end mileage for the Japanese. A common idea here is to figure out what the minimum mileage you need to do to run a good marathon is. The Japanese are more likely to try to figure out the maximum number of miles they can do before it becomes counter productive. It was not always this way in the US. When we were one of the best marathoning countries on earth we had plenty of guys going over 120 consistently. I think it's also worth noting that the currently fastest North American marathoner has done really big volume for quite a few years.
From what I can piece together, and again, I may be off the mark here, it seems like the East Africans are closer to the kind of volume the Japanese do than to what most Americans do. I don't believe you can compare US runners with East Africans as clearly as you can with Japanese, life there is very different from the West and probably more conducive to developing distance runners. But if that's true, you have East Africans, who are already ahead of most westerners in terms of aerobic development, running more training mileage and lengthening the distance between themselves and most westerners.
Quit promoting the rumor that Japan has great marathon runners. Yes, they love the marathon, but the first Japanese runner at Berlin ran 2:17:39 and placed 51st. Their second runner was at 2:23 and placed 88th. Their 3rd runner was at 2:32 for 275th place.
The US had a few runners well ahead of the first two Japanese and many ahead of their 3rd guys.
And if they had such great marathoners, more would have shown up and competed, but since they cannot compete at that level, they stay in Japan. On top of that, probably their best marathoner in the past 10 years lived and trained in the US.
Japan consistently produces the fastest marathon times of any country outside of East Africa. That's not exactly a rumor. But they rarely do that in races outside of Japan. I once counted the total number of men's Olympic marathon medals won in my lifetime by the US and by Japan. We have one more than they have. Why the Japanese don't usually reproduce their domestic times internationally would make for a good discussion. But they do produce loads and loads of fast marathoners.
At this point, if you’re a top American marathon runner, you either need to move to Kenya/Ethiopia and train with them, or start a village here in the states for elite runners. Training with a couple people just isn’t cutting it.
I did the equivalent of this for road cycling. Right after college (my parents insisted I finish that first), I moved to Belgium for two years. Worked my way up and ended up turning pro for a low-level team. I then realized I wasn't going to make the jump to the next level of pro (this was 1996/97) and moved back to the US to race a bit more and go to grad school and law school. But when I was in Belgium, I was constantly being pushed on training rides, every race, trying to get noticed. Here, any US runner that can make a go of it after college has the financials worked out--but then they've also removed the most powerful motivator, survival. As someone early on in my cycling career said about going to Belgium with just a few hundred dollars: "You have to be hungry to eat."
No, it doesn’t work that way. If someone is being pushed on easy days, there’s a big risk of injury and/or burnout. Just about any top runner has the ability to push himself to the point of diminishing returns and the challenge is to find the right balance.
He was on his way to a 12,55-56 time with 300 to go during a DL race this summer when he was tripped from behind. Have you been living under a rock until recently?
Quit promoting the rumor that Japan has great marathon runners. Yes, they love the marathon, but the first Japanese runner at Berlin ran 2:17:39 and placed 51st. Their second runner was at 2:23 and placed 88th. Their 3rd runner was at 2:32 for 275th place.
The US had a few runners well ahead of the first two Japanese and many ahead of their 3rd guys.
Japan has its Olympic Trial (Marathon Grand Championship) on October 15. No runner with Olympic aspiration entered Berlin.
Hitomi Niiya went for NR in Berlin, and ended up with 2:23. Now she might regret her decision.
Now that the women's wr has dipped under 2:12 we have to take a hard look at US men's marathoning and ask what is wrong? Why can't the US get a large number of men that can run under 2:10? Yes the new world record holder wore the latest version of super shoes, but so are US men who are all struggling to run sub 2:10.
So what has to happen to get US men's marathon running out of its current sad state?
Please serious answers only
The U.S. system is set up for fast high school runners to go run in NCAA at the shorter distances and then once they're graduated there is no system in place to incentivize them to keep training towards a marathon. Sure a small handful get a sponsorship, but if you aren't one of those 10-20 then what incentive is there to keep training and to step up to the marathon? We lose hundreds of solid runners every year when they graduate college. It's pretty much go pro or quit running in the US. And if you don't go pro, you're looking at training on your own, paying for your own gear, working it in around a job, and then maybe picking up $200 at a local marathon and losing money if you travel to a big marathon to get better competition. There is simply no incentive post-college. The big shoe brands won't even give free gear to these guys.
1. Cost of living is extremely low in Ethiopia and Kenya compared to the US. Runners can afford to train cheaply in camps and with good company
2. Wages are super low in those countries compared to the US. There is a massive opportunity cost associated with deciding to be a pro marathoner in the US.
3. It's neither cool nor lucrative to be a skinny athlete in the US. Here we have explosive manly man sports that pay so well. In Ethiopia and Kenya, everyone is thin and there are no other dominant sports.
The above factors mean that tens of thousands of runners (kids included) in those countries take up running each year, for cheap.. and with so much more motivation via potential popularity and prize money that will transform their lives. Meanwhile, in the US between competing "cooler" sports, the lack of money in running, and potential wages/career one must give up are massive barriers.
Now that the women's wr has dipped under 2:12 we have to take a hard look at US men's marathoning and ask what is wrong? Why can't the US get a large number of men that can run under 2:10? Yes the new world record holder wore the latest version of super shoes, but so are US men who are all struggling to run sub 2:10.
So what has to happen to get US men's marathon running out of its current sad state?
Please serious answers only
Too many right wing athletes expecting handouts to win marathons. Snowflakes.
rupp probably would have had run a decent time if he could've stayed healthy
but as somebody smart once said "not getting injured is the talent"
I mean he ran 2:06 and won a WMM.
But yeah, I do think Rupp probably had a sub-2:05 in him. Grant Fisher might have a shot at it with his form and his 10K prowess.
The answer is like many have said -- we don't really put an emphasis on it. We wondered why some Americans were sneaking in for medals, or why Ethiopia was overtaking Kenya on the track and in World XC? I think a big part of it is that the Kenyans wised up and realized the money was on the roads and people like Wanjiru and now Kiptum barely even raced on the track, straight to the 'thon. Japan does the same.
Now that the women's wr has dipped under 2:12 we have to take a hard look at US men's marathoning and ask what is wrong? Why can't the US get a large number of men that can run under 2:10? Yes the new world record holder wore the latest version of super shoes, but so are US men who are all struggling to run sub 2:10.
So what has to happen to get US men's marathon running out of its current sad state?
Please serious answers only
Not enough mileage.
Too much running done at 10k pace and faster.
Not enough running done at Marathon pace.
Canova told everyone this a decade ago. It's maybe even more true today.
Now that the women's wr has dipped under 2:12 we have to take a hard look at US men's marathoning and ask what is wrong? Why can't the US get a large number of men that can run under 2:10? Yes the new world record holder wore the latest version of super shoes, but so are US men who are all struggling to run sub 2:10.
So what has to happen to get US men's marathon running out of its current sad state?
Please serious answers only
Not enough mileage.
Too much running done at 10k pace and faster.
Not enough running done at Marathon pace.
Canova told everyone this a decade ago. It's maybe even more true today.
This is a good post.
The amount of times that I see people suggest that there is a "no man's land" between easy pace and threshold pace, I have to roll my eyes. The most successful coaches in the world (particularly at the marathon, but even Dave Smith with 8k/10k) do a ton of sub-threshold work around marathon pace.
Kipchoge's logs are basically 5% or less at 10K or faster, about 20% in the HMP-MP range, long runs that 15-30s per KM slower than marathon pace, and then tons of mileage. They religiously keep that 10K and faster work so low specifically because they know they need to run the mileage and the body cannot handle both.
Thanks for the link. I can't make heads or tails out of it but I do see 130 and 135 in places. It's five years old as well. I imagine there could be someone here and there in the US hitting that sort of mileage consistently but it doesn't seem like it's remotely common in the US now.
That’s what Rodgers was doing in his 1975 Training log. Just a ton of mileage and an occasional 800 or mile repeat sesh.
Now that the women's wr has dipped under 2:12 we have to take a hard look at US men's marathoning and ask what is wrong? Why can't the US get a large number of men that can run under 2:10? Yes the new world record holder wore the latest version of super shoes, but so are US men who are all struggling to run sub 2:10.
So what has to happen to get US men's marathon running out of its current sad state?
Please serious answers only
let's not drag this out. you should ask, "what is right with us marathoning?"
1980 USA Olympic Marathon Trials Buffalo, NY May 24, 1980 Overall Finish Order ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Tony Sandoval OR 2:10:19 0:04:58 1/MOPEN 1/M 2. Benji Durden GA 2:10:41 0:04:59 2/MOPEN 2/M 3. Kyle Heffner TX 2:10:55 0:05:00 3/MOPEN 3/M 4. Ron Tabb TX 2:12:39 0:05:04 4/MOPEN 4/M 5. Jeff Wells OR 2:13:16 0:05:05 5/MOPEN 5/M 6. Kevin McCarey OR 2:13:17 0:05:05 6/MOPEN 6/M 7. Randy Thomas MA 2:13:40 0:05:06 7/MOPEN 7/M 8. Gordon Minty MI 2:13:53 0:05:06 8/MOPEN 8/M 9. Frank Richardson IA 2:14:17 0:05:07 9/MOPEN 9/M 10. Dennis Rinde CA 2:14:22 0:05:07 10/MOPEN 10/M 11. Walt Saeger OH 2:14:38 0:05:08 11/MOPEN 11/M 12. Dave Smith CA 2:14:48 0:05:08 12/MOPEN 12/M 13. David Patterson PA 2:15:09 0:05:09 13/MOPEN 13/M 14. Chuck Hattersley CO 2:15:30 0:05:10 14/MOPEN 14/M 15. Jeff Foster PA 2:15:56 0:05:11 15/MOPEN 15/M 16. Dick Beardsley MN 2:16:01 0:05:11 16/MOPEN 16/M 17. John Dimick VT 2:16:08 0:05:12 17/MOPEN 17/M 18. Kim Burke PA 2:16:10 0:05:12 18/MOPEN 18/M 19. John Vitale CT 2:16:22 0:05:12 19/MOPEN 19/M 20. Ted Castaneda CO 2:16:38 0:05:13 20/MOPEN 20/M 21. Mike Pinocci NV 2:16:46 0:05:13 21/MOPEN 21/M 22. Gary Fanelli PA 2:16:49 0:05:13 22/MOPEN 22/M 23. Chuck Smead CA 2:16:58 0:05:13 23/MOPEN 23/M 24. Cliff Karthauser NE 2:16:58 0:05:13 24/MOPEN 24/M 25. Bill Glad WA 2:17:23 0:05:14 25/MOPEN 25/M 26. John Miley OK 2:17:23 0:05:14 26/MOPEN 26/M 27. Roy Kulikowski SC 2:17:26 0:05:15 27/MOPEN 27/M 28. Bruce Robinson MD 2:17:30 0:05:15 28/MOPEN 28/M 29. David Miley OK 2:17:40 0:05:15 29/MOPEN 29/M 30. Rick Callison OH 2:17:42 0:05:15 30/MOPEN 30/M 31. Don Slusser PA 2:17:44 0:05:15 31/MOPEN 31/M 32. Will Albers VA 2:17:50 0:05:15 32/MOPEN 32/M 33. Phil Camp FL 2:17:56 0:05:16 33/MOPEN 33/M 34. David McDonald PA 2:18:15 0:05:16 34/MOPEN 34/M 35. David Hinz MI 2:18:21 0:05:17 35/MOPEN 35/M 36. Bob Hensley CT 2:18:32 0:05:17 36/MOPEN 36/M 37. Bill Haviland OH 2:18:37 0:05:17 37/MOPEN 37/M 38. Bob Varsha GA 2:18:40 0:05:17 38/MOPEN 38/M 39. Terry Heath ID 2:18:57 0:05:18 39/MOPEN 39/M 40. Frank Bautista OR 2:19:00 0:05:18 40/MOPEN 40/M 41. Ron Wayne CA 2:19:01 0:05:18 41/MOPEN 41/M 42. Bobby Doyle RI 2:19:04 0:05:18 42/MOPEN 42/M 43. Mike Healer FL 2:19:08 0:05:18 43/MOPEN 43/M 44. Dennis O'Halloran CA 2:19:08 0:05:18 44/MOPEN 44/M 45. Tom Grundy RI 2:19:13 0:05:19 45/MOPEN 45/M 46. Craig Holm NY 2:19:17 0:05:19 46/MOPEN 46/M 47. Leonard Hill OR 2:19:20 0:05:19 47/MOPEN 47/M 48. Bob Becker IA 2:19:21 0:05:19 48/MOPEN 48/M 49. Bob Duncan NY 2:19:35 0:05:19 49/MOPEN 49/M 50. Lee Edmonds CA 2:19:36 0:05:19 50/MOPEN 50/M 51. Frank Trammel LA 2:19:40 0:05:20 51/MOPEN 51/M 52. Jean Ellis CA 2:19:42 0:05:20 52/MOPEN 52/M 53. Tom Blumer OH 2:19:46 0:05:20 53/MOPEN 53/M 54. Randy Fischer SD 2:19:49 0:05:20 54/MOPEN 54/M 55. Michael Hairston OK 2:19:52 0:05:20 55/MOPEN 55/M 56. Mike Cassaday CA 2:19:54 0:05:20 56/MOPEN 56/M
Now that the women's wr has dipped under 2:12 we have to take a hard look at US men's marathoning and ask what is wrong? Why can't the US get a large number of men that can run under 2:10? Yes the new world record holder wore the latest version of super shoes, but so are US men who are all struggling to run sub 2:10.
So what has to happen to get US men's marathon running out of its current sad state?
Please serious answers only
People who talk about how bad US marathoners are keep comparing them to East Africans and occasionally to the Japanese. Obviously we're not in the same league as those countries are. But who is? Nine of the first ten today in Berlin are East Africans. I counted ten of the top thirty coming from from countries other than East Africa but at least half of those runners have names that look like they could have been born in East Africa.
Yes, we could take a hard look at US men's marathoning and ask what's wrong. We could also do that for really any other country aside from perhaps Japan. If you compare US marathoning with Japan's, which I think is the most relevant comparison because the typical Japanese runner grows up in a country much like the US, two differences stand out. One is that the Japanese like the marathon, their best distance runners focus on the marathon and begin racing it seriously early in their careers. They don't spend years focused on the track. US runners really don't like the marathon and so our best runners stay with the 5 and 10. If they run marathons it's not until late in their careers and they're kind of past their primes. If Klecker, Fisher, etc., were Japanese they'd have been running seriously at the marathon we'd have much faster times. As it is our marathoners are kind of second tier guys. I don't mean that as a knock but they most likely wouldn't be running marathons if they were comparably good on the track as Fisher, etc.
The other difference is that US runners as a group don't run the mileage the Japanese do from what I've seen. If I'm wrong about this I'd be happy to be corrected, but from what I can tell no one in the US is going over 120 a week consistently. That's kind of low end mileage for the Japanese. A common idea here is to figure out what the minimum mileage you need to do to run a good marathon is. The Japanese are more likely to try to figure out the maximum number of miles they can do before it becomes counter productive. It was not always this way in the US. When we were one of the best marathoning countries on earth we had plenty of guys going over 120 consistently. I think it's also worth noting that the currently fastest North American marathoner has done really big volume for quite a few years.
From what I can piece together, and again, I may be off the mark here, it seems like the East Africans are closer to the kind of volume the Japanese do than to what most Americans do. I don't believe you can compare US runners with East Africans as clearly as you can with Japanese, life there is very different from the West and probably more conducive to developing distance runners. But if that's true, you have East Africans, who are already ahead of most westerners in terms of aerobic development, running more training mileage and lengthening the distance between themselves and most westerners.
Great post, but let's put some respect on Cam Levins' name!