I’ve got some disjointed thoughts on the record, its significance and Jakob vs. El Guerrouj.
First, approximate splits from yesterday’s race based off the video:
First 1500 - 3:33.8
First mile - 3:49.4
Last 1500 - 3:31.7
Last mile - 3:47.3
So he ran the last mile in about what Nuguse ran at Millrose and about what Coe ran for a WR in 1981, after the first 390.6m in ~55.8. It doesn’t take a genius to conclude that this was an all-time, mind-boggling performance similar to El Guerrouj’s 3:26.00 and Daniel Komen’s 7:20.67. Sure, that doesn’t mean he can break 3:26, but he’s relatively better at 2k-3k and between his 2-mile and 2K records I think it’s safe to say he can smash Komen’s legendary mark.
Of course, the narrative on Komen’s 7:20.67 has already begun to shift from “most untouchable record, never to be broken” to “Well, the 3k isn’t an Olympic distance so how strong is it really?” I think there’s some cognitive dissonance going on, whereby people are unable to accept that Ingebrigtsen is matching or exceeding the performances of guys who have been almost deified as legends over the past 25 years. In their inability to accept that, they turn to rationalizing Ingebrigtsen’s record-breaking by attributing it to shoes and wavelight, coming up with bogus conversions in an attempt to discount Jakob’s achievements. While new spikes and wavelight undoubtedly help to some degree, it’s a totally useless exercise to retroactively convert El Guerrouj down to 4:41, just as it’s useless to convert Jim Ryun down to 3:25 like some have done over the years.
Having said that, I want to note that I think people are missing the single biggest advantage Jakob had in running 4:43.13 vs. El Guerrouj’s 4:44.79: he was chasing a 4:44.79 WR instead of a 4:47.88 WR. Of course the goal, expectations and pacing targets are going to be higher for Jakob; El Guerrouj smashed the WR by over 3 seconds, and who knows if he could have run 2 seconds faster if he needed to in order to break the WR.
In terms of absolute performance vs. the clock, it’s fair to say Jakob is now operating in the absolute highest, most exclusive tier. He still has a long way to go before he’s challenging El Guerrouj as the mid-distance GOAT, since El Guerrouj has 5 outdoor global championship 1500 golds and has held the 1500 and mile WRs for 25 years. But in my mind he has now eclipsed greats such as Komen (only 1 outdoor medal) and Lagat (no period of dominance like Jakob has shown the last two years).
Becoming more disjointed:
- To the poster who sarcastically said he’d just broken the WR for 1854m: very cool, and I think if you ran under 4:20 then we can discuss how that compares with the 1500 and 2000m records.
- This Khamis guy is a frickin hoot! I hope we start hearing more from him and his interesting theories.
- It’s hard to be both unbeatable and likable, and man, I wish Jakob wouldn’t do his stupid “what’s the big deal?” shrug into the camera after running an awesome race. If he smiled and threw up the #1 finger that he likes so much, high-fived some competitors before posing in front of the clock and signing some autographs, he wouldn’t be as hard for me to root for. I’ve heard it said that he relishes being the villain, but I’m always skeptical of whether that’s really true or just something one tries to convince themselves of as a defense mechanism. Can you imagine how hard it must be to grow up as an Ingebrigtsen boy and not have your entire self-worth become wrapped up with your running performance?—so I wonder if Jakob is truly hyper-confident, or if on some level he’s deeply insecure. I’m not sure he’s the most well adjusted guy out there.
- Nobody should be calling El Guerrouj “El EPO” when discussing El G vs. Jakob, because Jakob is dominating a drug plagued endurance sport in a way that’s suspicious in and of itself.
-Don’t assume this year won’t be looked back on as arguably the best year of Jakob’s prime. I’m not claiming it will be, but I think some people have it in their minds that he’ll continue to improve year after year until he’s 27, which is highly unlikely. It’s all smooth sailing until it isn’t, and it will be interesting to see how Jakob handles any big setbacks or dips in performance.
-Here’s a much less grainy video of El Guerrouj’s 2k record in which you can see that he does shut it down a few strides from the line, but we’re talking maybe 2 tenths of a second:
Pardon me for the stupidly long post.