No other explanations??? How about how the average age of NCAA finalists now is a 1-2 years older than pervious years due to the covid year, increased use of red-shirting on top of the red-shirt year, and large numbers of international runners who didn't immediately come to the NCAA when they were 18. The average age of NCAA runners today is not what it was a decade ago, or even in 2019.
This age argument is so stupid. You keep saying “average” like you have the data. Okay, maybe the “average” NCAA finalist in 2022 is 21.7 years old from 21.3 in 2018 — big whoop. Do you understand how averages work? A few extra 6th years isn’t going to materially change the average. Okay so, hypothetically, the number of 23 year olds increased +20% versus the trailing 10 year average but the number of sub 4s increased +150%… must be the ages man. Step back and realize how stupid your argument is.
This actually seems fair & way less of a boost than some people on here think to seem they're worth. Less than 1s/400m. This also assumes perfect conditions/pacing/etc. So when it's 80 degrees outside with some wind and some uneven pacing who knows what you're getting. Yes, they help, but running depth at the NCAA level is as good as it's ever been. People are training better, eating & recovering better, & racing faster. It's lazy to write it off as the shoes doing all the work. It's not worth our time to focus on the shoes when so many good athletes are crushing it.
100th NCAA times show ~3 second improvement in the 1500, 15+ second improvement in the 5k and 30+ second improvement in the 10k exactly coinciding with introduction of the shoes. It has persisted since then. Did training radically change at that time by almost all top coaches? Did tracks all get re-made? Did HS talent pool suddenly change a year or two before that? No, but shoes changed.
Technology works. It is difficult for some runners to accept that they are running very fast times, but also to accept that they are not directly comparable to the same time from a few years ago. The 4 minute mile is now equivalent to 4:02-4:03 from a few years ago. Great time, but... If it is not the shoes, get some of the current 4:00 runners to race in old style shoes and see. They won't do it because they know the shoes are critical.
Can you post the data that shows the average age of an NCAA Finalist for several years prior to super spikes and for 2020-23? Some others have posted data for last NCAA qualifier, 100th time, 1000th time over 10+ year periods that show an inflection point at the introduction of super spikes. Some of these were IAAF data, not just NCAA data. Please do the same to show a different conclusion for the irrefutable change in race times.
I did a couple years ago in 2021 when we had that insane 10,000m race where the top 8 runners were all sub 28 at NCAAs. The average age was over 23 years of age. Too much effort to go back and look everyone up again, go right ahead and you'll see the average age is older now than it used to be several years ago. Back before 2010 or even before 2000 the oldest guys were 22, occasionally you'd find a 23 year old. Everyone listed as a senior right now is minimum 23 years old, some are 24 and even 25. Everyone listed as a junior is actually 22, some 23 or 24. So when you've got over half the field is listed as a junior or senior, that means over half the field is about 23 or older. Most people used to run out of eligibility at age 22, or even 21 if they were young for their grade with a summer birthday. That extra year or two not only makes those people faster, but has increased the number of athletes who are currently in the system making all the races deeper than they normally would be. After two more years it'll be back to normal. Times will still be faster than they used to be, but there will be a stagnation for a couple years as the decreased depth has to be overtaken by improvement in performances.
That's cool. But times are faster for all US runners. Not just collegiate. They are also faster for prep. Since covid is over, the 5th year senior effect should have long died out and we should see times reverting back to pre super shoe years. But they are not. US 10000m times for top 100 are average 28:35 this year which is 15 seconds faster (24:49) than the fastest year ever (pre super shoes) and is within a few seconds of 2022 and 2021 and the seasons still going. Predict that it will dip under 28:30 which will be the first time ever that top 100 US times will average under 28:30. 2021-23 are the fastest years ever for men's and women's distances 3000m through 10000m. This is couting all US runners - not just collegiate. The improvement did not come from 5th year seniors.
I did a couple years ago in 2021 when we had that insane 10,000m race where the top 8 runners were all sub 28 at NCAAs. The average age was over 23 years of age. Too much effort to go back and look everyone up again, go right ahead and you'll see the average age is older now than it used to be several years ago. Back before 2010 or even before 2000 the oldest guys were 22, occasionally you'd find a 23 year old. Everyone listed as a senior right now is minimum 23 years old, some are 24 and even 25. Everyone listed as a junior is actually 22, some 23 or 24. So when you've got over half the field is listed as a junior or senior, that means over half the field is about 23 or older. Most people used to run out of eligibility at age 22, or even 21 if they were young for their grade with a summer birthday. That extra year or two not only makes those people faster, but has increased the number of athletes who are currently in the system making all the races deeper than they normally would be. After two more years it'll be back to normal. Times will still be faster than they used to be, but there will be a stagnation for a couple years as the decreased depth has to be overtaken by improvement in performances.
That's cool. But times are faster for all US runners. Not just collegiate. They are also faster for prep. Since covid is over, the 5th year senior effect should have long died out and we should see times reverting back to pre super shoe years. But they are not. US 10000m times for top 100 are average 28:35 this year which is 15 seconds faster (*24:49) than the fastest year ever (pre super shoes) and is within a few seconds of 2022 and 2021 and the seasons still going. Predict that it will dip under 28:30 which will be the first time ever that top 100 US times will average under 28:30. 2021-23 are the fastest years ever for men's and women's distances 3000m through 10000m. This is couting all US runners - not just collegiate. The improvement did not come from 5th year seniors.
So you are saying nobody in the world ran a sub 3:31 1500 equivalent in the past few years ? Come on, think about it before calling others morons.
I think half of that, so 1sec/km is already optimistic. The top performers every years in the 800/1500 are not faster than in the previous spikes era despite the fact that the level is competitive at the moment. The supershoes are on the roads. On the track, it's just a slight improvment.
Since super shoes we have seen the record books rewritten on every level. I wouldn't be wrong in suggesting that Bekele's 5 & 10000m records were pretty much unbeatable by the current generation of talent. Those records have been on the books for a long time. Same with the women's records. Is it possible that a generation of average talent (on the world-class level of course) came a long and beat them out because of shoes? Yes. Put Chepetgei in the same race as Bekele's 12:37, with the same shoes, on the same day and Cheptegei barely breaks 12:50. Before super spikes, he had barley broken 13:00 despite the fact that he had been on the world-class scene since, at least, 2016. Then goes from 12:57 - 12:35. Same with the 10000m. I think there are other factors here, but the shoes work.
US 10000m runners are almost 30 seconds faster (comparing top 100 times from previous 10 years) than they have ever been - and it happened overnight. World distance times are the fastest we've ever seen. And they're holding there. When comparing top 100 times over the previous 10 years (pre super shoes) there would be a fast year followed by a slow or average year. Always up and down. Since the release of super shoes, the past three years have been the fastest we've ever seen. Is it possible that super shoes have turned years that would normally be average or slow into super fast years?
That said, the shoes seem to have more of a profound impact on the elite/sub-elite runners and not as much on the world-class level. The ~29:00, ~14:00, and ~4:00 group. Why? Who knows. Possiblity is that PED use is much more prevelant for a group that is running faster (obviously). Seems less likely that a runner running at redline (due to PED) would benefit as much from any tech. You can only get so fast. It would be great if someone did a study.
If everyone wants the shoes, fine. But at least admit that times weren't what they used to be. A sub 4 isn't the same anymore... and everyone knows it.
Your post is contradictory : you claim that the spikes gave a 15sec help to cheptegei for the 5k (so 3sec/km) but also that those spikes don't work on world class level (I guess to try to deny the obvious evidence that elites don't go faster, or hardly, in the 800/1500 since new spikes).
A possible explanation would be that the spikes make a bigger difference for longer distances, with the foam saving the legs. But it could be many others factors like a new PED (quite likely) better suited for longer distances, better training (treshold based), wavelight, big talents generation etc... And it's not like everybody runs sub 12:40, only cheptegei did it. But we do see more 12:50/sub27 guys for sure. But at same level of talent they do seem to run around 2sec/km faster in the 5/10k nowadays than a few years ago.
WRs for the 800/1000/1500/Mile/2000 and 3k are still uncontested as they used to be. They have to try on the lasts quite soft records like the two miles and some indoors.
I don't believe they make a bigger difference for the 4:00 milers than 3:45 milers. Most runner i know around 3:40 level still run the same times they ran a few year ago with previous spikes. No evidence of significant improvment.
I've been able to measure my own stride on the flat oval running at fixed cadence (hallo metronome and/or hallo music) and it's 2-3 cm longer in carbons vs old time flats when cruising and 4-5 cm longer per stride when kicking. Free energy!
You are talking about road shoes here right? Everybody agree that they make quite a big difference. It's not the same with spikes.
Since super shoes we have seen the record books rewritten on every level. I wouldn't be wrong in suggesting that Bekele's 5 & 10000m records were pretty much unbeatable by the current generation of talent. Those records have been on the books for a long time. Same with the women's records. Is it possible that a generation of average talent (on the world-class level of course) came a long and beat them out because of shoes? Yes. Put Chepetgei in the same race as Bekele's 12:37, with the same shoes, on the same day and Cheptegei barely breaks 12:50. Before super spikes, he had barley broken 13:00 despite the fact that he had been on the world-class scene since, at least, 2016. Then goes from 12:57 - 12:35. Same with the 10000m. I think there are other factors here, but the shoes work.
US 10000m runners are almost 30 seconds faster (comparing top 100 times from previous 10 years) than they have ever been - and it happened overnight. World distance times are the fastest we've ever seen. And they're holding there. When comparing top 100 times over the previous 10 years (pre super shoes) there would be a fast year followed by a slow or average year. Always up and down. Since the release of super shoes, the past three years have been the fastest we've ever seen. Is it possible that super shoes have turned years that would normally be average or slow into super fast years?
That said, the shoes seem to have more of a profound impact on the elite/sub-elite runners and not as much on the world-class level. The ~29:00, ~14:00, and ~4:00 group. Why? Who knows. Possiblity is that PED use is much more prevelant for a group that is running faster (obviously). Seems less likely that a runner running at redline (due to PED) would benefit as much from any tech. You can only get so fast. It would be great if someone did a study.
If everyone wants the shoes, fine. But at least admit that times weren't what they used to be. A sub 4 isn't the same anymore... and everyone knows it.
Your post is contradictory : you claim that the spikes gave a 15sec help to cheptegei for the 5k (so 3sec/km) but also that those spikes don't work on world class level (I guess to try to deny the obvious evidence that elites don't go faster, or hardly, in the 800/1500 since new spikes).
A possible explanation would be that the spikes make a bigger difference for longer distances, with the foam saving the legs. But it could be many others factors like a new PED (quite likely) better suited for longer distances, better training (treshold based), wavelight, big talents generation etc... And it's not like everybody runs sub 12:40, only cheptegei did it. But we do see more 12:50/sub27 guys for sure. But at same level of talent they do seem to run around 2sec/km faster in the 5/10k nowadays than a few years ago.
WRs for the 800/1000/1500/Mile/2000 and 3k are still uncontested as they used to be. They have to try on the lasts quite soft records like the two miles and some indoors.
I don't believe they make a bigger difference for the 4:00 milers than 3:45 milers. Most runner i know around 3:40 level still run the same times they ran a few year ago with previous spikes. No evidence of significant improvment.
They do work on the world-class level. If you average top 100 times for world-class times, 2021 and 22 (23 will be too) are the fastest years ever for distance events 3000 sc - 10000m. In the 5000m, for example, 2022 average for top 100 runners at the world-class level was 13:09. This is the fastest average ever for 5000m. It is 6 seconds faster than the next fastest year (2019) and 9 seconds faster than 2018 where it was 13:18. Is it that too far fetched to think that someone that responds well to the shoes could gain an additional 4 or 5 seconds over the average in a 5000m?
Now compare what we've been seeing on the world-class level to what we see with US times. US 5000m times are average 15 seconds faster when comparing top 100 times to previous 10 years prior to super shoes. This is what I meant by there seems to be more of a 'profound impact' when looking at US times compared to World times. For all we know, world times for 2021, 22, and 23 could be average but are exceeding anything we've witnessed in the past because of shoes.
Your post is contradictory : you claim that the spikes gave a 15sec help to cheptegei for the 5k (so 3sec/km) but also that those spikes don't work on world class level (I guess to try to deny the obvious evidence that elites don't go faster, or hardly, in the 800/1500 since new spikes).
A possible explanation would be that the spikes make a bigger difference for longer distances, with the foam saving the legs. But it could be many others factors like a new PED (quite likely) better suited for longer distances, better training (treshold based), wavelight, big talents generation etc... And it's not like everybody runs sub 12:40, only cheptegei did it. But we do see more 12:50/sub27 guys for sure. But at same level of talent they do seem to run around 2sec/km faster in the 5/10k nowadays than a few years ago.
WRs for the 800/1000/1500/Mile/2000 and 3k are still uncontested as they used to be. They have to try on the lasts quite soft records like the two miles and some indoors.
I don't believe they make a bigger difference for the 4:00 milers than 3:45 milers. Most runner i know around 3:40 level still run the same times they ran a few year ago with previous spikes. No evidence of significant improvment.
They do work on the world-class level. If you average top 100 times for world-class times, 2021 and 22 (23 will be too) are the fastest years ever for distance events 3000 sc - 10000m. In the 5000m, for example, 2022 average for top 100 runners at the world-class level was 13:09. This is the fastest average ever for 5000m. It is 6 seconds faster than the next fastest year (2019) and 9 seconds faster than 2018 where it was 13:18. Is it that too far fetched to think that someone that responds well to the shoes could gain an additional 4 or 5 seconds over the average in a 5000m?
Now compare what we've been seeing on the world-class level to what we see with US times. US 5000m times are average 15 seconds faster when comparing top 100 times to previous 10 years prior to super shoes. This is what I meant by there seems to be more of a 'profound impact' when looking at US times compared to World times. For all we know, world times for 2021, 22, and 23 could be average but are exceeding anything we've witnessed in the past because of shoes.
Still does not make sens for the 800/1500. 3'30 guys would win 0-1sec while guys hardly slower 3:40 guys would win 3-4sec?
This happens every time a new spike is released. The previous model gets phased out and everyone races in the new one. Every company now has a “super spike” as their flagship racing shoe, so of course that’s what people are using.
The 3 seconds per mile figure is nonsense. That makes 3:27.20 the new 3:30 and 12:50.7 the new 13:00. So in your view, we’ve had zero sub-3:30s and only one sub-12:50 in the last 4 seasons…
Just to add to this, compare the last 4 years since super spikes (2019-22) to the previous 4 year period (2015-18).
19-22: 0 sub 3:30, 1 sub 12:50, 12 sub 13:00
15-18: 12 sub 3:30, 3 sub 12:50, 25 sub 13:00
So men’s distance has fallen off a cliff since the super spikes were released.
Nah, unlikely that a few more high level races would add more fast times. Instead you forgot that it is rather the presence of the biologically hostile vaccines for COVID 19 that is present from 19-22 RATHER THAN the lack of high level races that would factor greater into diminishing high level performances. You also fail to add that it's also the presence of increasing air electricity from wireless telecommunications like 5G in addition to already present 3G, 4G and 4G+ that is also biologically hostile that would factor greater into the same diminishing high level performances. Besides you fail to also account that there is a synergy or resonance of death between the 2 concurrently existing hostile entities both the COVID vaccine AND the 5G or increased wireless telecommunications in the air than if they existed independently of one another with no interaction in human biology!
dun just focus on running stats, running performances or sport-related stuff when making a judgement about running related stuff because there are infinitely more co-variables or cofactors greater than running related stuff or running stats that affects or confounds the same running stats and performances and which sport scientists and physiologists aren't even aware of or are not privy enough to consider in their expert opinions about running stats and performances. xemptyzWord of advice: you can never find CAUSATION of running stats/performances/stuff from running stats/performances/stuff! You can only find correlation! To achieve causation, you need to surmount the knowledge gap and transcend the running stats/performances/stuff and look into another realm that truly supersedes and dwarfs the running stats/performances/stuff such as COVID vaccines + wireless air electricity pollution + air particulate or chemical particulate pollution the combination of which truly manifests your running stats/performances/stuff! xemptyzSince the trio of COVID vaccines + wireless air electricity pollution + air particulate or chemical particulate pollution severs the transmission of energy between healthy MIND and healthy cell/body/organ, then both the MIND/PSYCHOLOGY/PSYCHIATRY or mental/emotional health, and, the physical/physiological/biological/cellular health of the human high-performing athlete meaning his/her LONGEVITY IN SPORT + LEVEL OF ACHIEVEMENT AND POTENTIAL ACHIEVEMENT IN SPORT will also be severed or distorted to varying degrees. This trio of environmental pollutants greater and more overarching or over-ruling than that of human mind+body/cell inasmuch as manifesting in the latter the very natural (RESONANT AND LOW IMPEDANCE) and vital force/energy or lack thereof for clean non-doped human high-performance is therefore obviously also the very SUBSTRATE of the human mind+body/cell!!! xemptyzThey say 'it's all in the mind', it's actually outdated axiom instead it's rather 'all in the environment' since all mind energy or natural/resonant mind energy, hence physical/cellular energy can only derive from its substrate which is the environment. xemptyzThe problem in today's modern world is that nobody recognizes or sees the environment as the causation of mind hence cell/body because it's precisely such recognition or awareness of such that precisely unlocks infinite and boundless mind/mental energy which then feeds as infinite and boundless (or at least longevity!) cellular/physical/physiological health which would be of precise interest or concern for long-term high-performance non-doped athletes! xemptyzie, if an athlete actually could be so cognizantly intelligent enough to be so aware as to stay away from the COVID vaccines, stay away from wireless telecommunication cities and live and train in the rural disconnected areas, stay away or find a safe spot with low air or chemical particulate pollution, I dare to wager that with less training, less quality training, less focus, dedication, commitment, less rest/recovery/nutrition/diet, less strength and conditioning, less periodization, less pep talking, less counselling, less of everything, there would still be an increase in or at least maintenance of high-level performances in 19-22 as 15-18!!! xemptyzas usual, i'm never wrong and i have a very good mastery of the infinitely more immaterial and abstract stuff that supersedes and controls the running stats/performances/stuff and that's part of my boast. xemptyzxemptyzxemptyzxemptyzhope that made sense:) xemptyz
Nah, unlikely that a few more high level races would add more fast times. Instead you forgot that it is rather the presence of the biologically hostile vaccines for COVID 19 that is present from 19-22 RATHER THAN the lack of high level races that would factor greater into diminishing high level performances. You also fail to add that it's also the presence of increasing air electricity from wireless telecommunications like 5G in addition to already present 3G, 4G and 4G+ that is also biologically hostile that would factor greater into the same diminishing high level performances. Besides you fail to also account that there is a synergy or resonance of death between the 2 concurrently existing hostile entities both the COVID vaccine AND the 5G or increased wireless telecommunications in the air than if they existed independently of one another with no interaction in human biology!
dun just focus on running stats, running performances or sport-related stuff when making a judgement about running related stuff because there are infinitely more co-variables or cofactors greater than running related stuff or running stats that affects or confounds the same running stats and performances and which sport scientists and physiologists aren't even aware of or are not privy enough to consider in their expert opinions about running stats and performances.
Word of advice: you can never find CAUSATION of running stats/performances/stuff from running stats/performances/stuff! You can only find correlation! To achieve causation, you need to surmount the knowledge gap and transcend the running stats/performances/stuff and look into another realm that truly supersedes and dwarfs the running stats/performances/stuff such as COVID vaccines + wireless air electricity pollution + air particulate or chemical particulate pollution the combination of which truly manifests your running stats/performances/stuff!
Since the trio of COVID vaccines + wireless air electricity pollution + air particulate or chemical particulate pollution severs the transmission of energy between healthy MIND and healthy cell/body/organ, then both the MIND/PSYCHOLOGY/PSYCHIATRY or mental/emotional health, and, the physical/physiological/biological/cellular health of the human high-performing athlete meaning his/her LONGEVITY IN SPORT + LEVEL OF ACHIEVEMENT AND POTENTIAL ACHIEVEMENT IN SPORT will also be severed or distorted to varying degrees. This trio of environmental pollutants greater and more overarching or over-ruling than that of human mind+body/cell inasmuch as manifesting in the latter the very natural (RESONANT AND LOW IMPEDANCE) and vital force/energy or lack thereof for clean non-doped human high-performance is therefore obviously also the very SUBSTRATE of the human mind+body/cell!!!
They say 'it's all in the mind', it's actually outdated axiom instead it's rather 'all in the environment' since all mind energy or natural/resonant mind energy, hence physical/cellular energy can only derive from its substrate which is the environment.
The problem in today's modern world is that nobody recognizes or sees the environment as the causation of mind hence cell/body because it's precisely such recognition or awareness of such that precisely unlocks infinite and boundless mind/mental energy which then feeds as infinite and boundless (or at least longevity!) cellular/physical/physiological health which would be of precise interest or concern for long-term high-performance non-doped athletes!
ie, if an athlete actually could be so cognizantly intelligent enough to be so aware as to stay away from the COVID vaccines, stay away from wireless telecommunication cities and live and train in the rural disconnected areas, stay away or find a safe spot with low air or chemical particulate pollution, I dare to wager that with less training, less quality training, less focus, dedication, commitment, less rest/recovery/nutrition/diet, less strength and conditioning, less periodization, less pep talking, less counselling, less of everything, there would still be an increase in or at least maintenance of high-level performances in 19-22 as 15-18!!!
as usual, i'm never wrong and i have a very good mastery of the infinitely more immaterial and abstract stuff that supersedes and controls the running stats/performances/stuff and that's part of my boast.
The only argument that superspike defenders have is that no clean athlete wearing them has broken the world record IN ONE EVENT of a guy who took every type of drugs known to man. It's such an idiotic argument.
These morons expect a 3:26 every year.
I’ve never talked about 3:26.
I was talking about Jakob running 3:31 at 17 in 2018 pre « superspikes», 3:30 at 18 with « superspikes », 3:28 at 20 with « superspikes», 3:29 at 21 with « superspikes ».
According to your conversion Jakob at 18 is slower than 17 years old Jakob even though his world ranking improved a lot ? Heck even 21 years old olympic champion, world 5000m champion and 1500m silver medalist Jakob is slower than 17 years old Jakob who didn’t wear « superspikes » ?
bringing this great post back. Jakob 7:54.1 for two miles. 4 seconds off Komen's record. Still feel good about this point? Clown.