JAKOB INGEBRIGSTEN Racing 5k On US Soil - Jakob to race 5k @ THE TRACK MEET May 6th

12:59.18

"Since you mention it though, I would point out that it's strange to say
Kerr has a better shot, given Ahmed is 1-1 head to head over the 5000 to
Jakob (getting 3rd to Jakob's 4th in Doha) while Kerr is 0-5 over the
1500 to him, dating back to 15 year old Jakob beating 19 year old Kerr
at U20 world champs in 2016."

-----------

To be fair: Kerr was "only" 18 at U20 Worlds in 2016. Kerr is 2 years and 11.5 months older than Jakob.

By the way: I also think Jakob will have more problems with Kerr in the 1500m than Ahmed in the 5000m (provided all 3 of them are at their best).

Jakob is a far better 5000m runner now than in Doha 2019 and even in Doha he would probably have beaten Ahmed if he (Jakob) had waited and not gone all in at 4.700m.

Who has he beaten in a real race? Mo Ahmed, silver medalist at the Olympics last year. He got set up well with good pacing and conditions for his ARs, but Diamond League races get the same treatment and no one says those aren't real races. I don't know if you watched the 10k, but it definitely looks like he and Ahmed are racing the last 1k. I guess if only non-paced races count as real races, he hasn't proven he can win. Still, judging from his 5th place last year in the Olympics I think he's proven he has the tactics to do well, and his fast closes in his 5k/10k make me think he has the speed to close now that he didn't before.

I don't know where the disconnect is here, like, how many people see:

1. Placed 2nd in US trials

2. Placed 5th in the Olympics

3. Made a huge jump in fitness to crush Galen Rupp's (10k Olympic medalist in case you forgot) 5ki/10k American Records months before WCs even start

4. Beat the Olympic 5k silver medalist (12:47 guy btw) in both the 5k and 10k races, who also broke his own national records in those races, so he's obviously in shape

And then go "hmmmm, I don't know, I still don't think this guy is a favorite to medal". He's shown great tactics like in the Olympics last year, has made constant progress since he was in high school, and has shown he has the fitness to hang with the best by running freaking 26:33 in the 10k with a 4:06 last 1600. He should be faster by WCs, so even if he's not a lock for a medal, I think most people think he can do it.

Gonna retune my early predictions based on what I've read since the fields were first announced.

I think the fastest it goes is 12:58, and that's only if someone starts pushing Jakob from pretty far out. Otherwise I'm guessing ~ 13:05. I think Klecker comes 2nd and a combo of Nur/Young/Mantz coming in top 5. Kerr right around the standard +- .9 seconds. My darkhorse/longshot is Drew Hunter for first. He outkicked Fisher in the Brooks PR 2 mile years ago, so I'm thinking since WCs is in the US, he'll have his comeback season now, kicking it off by crushing Jakob down the homestraight.