NXN 2023 Way too early preview: Dawn of a new Era

Chase Pack? This kid was destined to be a runner

Especially Anthony Fast Horse

Niwot at the state meet

chsaanow.com

Live Results: 2023 State Cross Country Championships

Complete results from the 2023 CHSAA Colorado high school state cross country championships, held Saturday, October 28, at Norris Penrose Event Center.

Link:chsaanow.com/news/2023/10/28/live-resu...

Click on “4A” under “official results”

Idaho state meet today. Couer D'Alene was more vulnerable than previously thought. They still won over Rocky Mountain and Boise Senior, but the scores were all fairly close at 45-60-63.

3 Idaho teams in the top 5-6 at NXR NW would be awesome to see from a state that has never really been good at XC at the national level.

The problem with CDA is that they seem to not have a front runner that most top teams do.

If they take third at NXR and Jesuit autoqualifies, I think CDA can get an at-large (for beating Jesuit at Hole in the wall) but it’s not a guarantee. It seems like NW is not as strong as it previously seemed to be. Northeast is starting to look deep with Union Catholic now showing what they are made of

I still believe firmly based off of what we know so far that the NW deserves an at-large bid. These scores being so close isn't necessarily an indicator of the weakness of any one of these teams, rather the fact that there are a lot of really strong teams.

Throw Jesuit, Crater, and Franklin into the mix and at the very least you have 3 top 30 teams, and at best, probably 5.

Northeast teams last year were 18th, 21st. Worse than every at-large bid, and I heard Granada and Mountain View had one of their worse races of the season at NXN. Northwest teams placed 2nd and 4th at NXN. If Northeast teams wanted to prove that they are better this year than last year, they should have flown over to Bob Firman Invitational. Just my thoughts I hope NXN committee comes from the same perspective.

Truth is the team that knows best on which region should technically be getting at-large bids is Herriman. She should also have a good gauge on how good the teams are.

They raced the entire California and the best in the South region at Woodbridge (and won)

They races the entire Northwest Region at Bob Firman. (won)

They raced the entire Southwest Region many times.

They raced the best of the Northeast region at NXN last year. (wrecked)

Last year Campolindo (1st Cali at large) finished in 13th so they did pretty well. JSerra (2nd at large) and Los Altos (2nd auto) both sucked it up though so it's a mixed bag. There are plenty of California teams who would do really well at NXN but will not end up going due to the qualification system.

Niwot looks stronger than I expected. Mostly like 3rd team at NXR Southwest.

Niwot girls win state

Rock Canyon wins 5A state, a team that keeps getting overlooked in Colorado. They also got 7th at Woodbridge earlier this season, expect them to be one of the teams fighting for the 4th nxr southwest spot behind American fork, Herriman, Niwot

Never count out Mountain Vista. They were only 9 points behind Rock Canyon and they always seem to peak at NXR Southwest. As long as they return something, they will always be in contention to get a spot at NXN

NXR Southwest comparison of Colorado vs Utah this year ==

This year Colorado State Championships 2023 - top 5 boy teams

1) Niwot 15:56 average - ??

2) Rock Canyon 16:11 average - 7th at woodbridge,

3) Mountain Vista 16:13 average - ??

4) Cheyenne Mountain 16:13 average - ??

5) The Classical Academy 16:13 average - ??

Last year Colorado State Championships 2022 - top 5 boy teams

1) Valor Christian - 16:12 average - 13th at NXR SW,

2) Cheyenne Mountain - 16:16 average - 8th at NXR SW, 21st at RL

3) Niwot - 16:22 average - 5th at NXR SW, 6th at RL

4) The Classical Academy - 16:22 average - 11th at NXR SW, 5th at RL

5) Mountain Vista - 16:27 average - 4th at NXR SW, 20th at RL

This year Utah State Championships 2023 - top 6 boys teams

1) American Fork - 15:14 average

2) Herriman - 15:25 average

3) Lone Peak - 15:41 average

4) Orem - 15:53 average

5) Mountain View - 15:56 average

6) Riverton - 15:58 average

last year Utah State Championships 2022 - top 6 boys teams

1) Mountain View - 15:31 average - 6th at Woodbridge, 3rd at NXR SW, 17th at NXN

2) American Fork - 15:34 average - 1st at NXR SW, 5th at NXN

3) Lone Peak - 15:44 average - 7th at NXR SW,

4) Orem - 15:45 average - 7th at Woodbridge, 14th at NXR SW, 18th at RL

5) Riverton - 15:47 average - 5th at NXR SW, 1st at RL

6) Herriman - 15:52 average - 1st at Woodbridge, 2nd at NXR SW, 3rd at Nxn

Herriman 2023 also won woodbridge

My money is that 1st American Fork, 2nd Herriman, 3rd Niwot, and Rock Canyon will be 4th. Rock Canyon has been good from the start and haven't been the type of team that dodges competition. They have always been overlooked by rankings. They know how to compete well in a competitive stressful environment. They should get an at-large bid if they get 4th. Lone Peak is good but if they get 4th the NXN committe doesn't like to give at-large bids to teams that don't race big races (based off past bids given).

Niwot most likely close to same level as the top 3 CA teams Dana Hills/Great Oak/Ventura