Jason Parra is going over to the northeast's Manhattan Invite. If he comes back with some insane speed rating, then we know northeast is overrated. This will be interesting
Manhattan Invitational actually features teams from 4 different regions. We can see how the teams stack up to each other speed rating wise. The whole Millikan and Santa Monica squad is going up there. We can compare speed ratings in California with speed ratings from the Northeast, Southeast, and New York which is super rare.
California Region Woodbridge / Clovis Millikan - 181,167,155,148,148,142,137 176,164,160,151,147,145,144
Santa Monica
Northeast Region - Bowdoin Classic Christian Brothers - 189,188,181,180,180,177,173 Brookline - 180,180,178,175,174,162, Westfield - 185,181,177,176,175
Southeast Region - Great American Festival Ridgefield - 190,175,174,172,165
New York - McQuaid Invitational Fairport - 183,177,174,170,168 Auburn - 181,180,170,170,162 Saratoga Springs - 178,172,170,169,164 Ithaca - 182,174,167,163,161
Millikan 296 points, jason parra was 5th at 12:28 at Manhattan.
Hard to say they could of had a good day, we don't really know. Woodbridge 629 points, Clovis 454 points
Strava data averages 3.00 for Orange County Championships, the course was clearly measured with watch. It is just as flat as woodbridge according to the elevation changes. It has a few sharp turns that slows pace. Woodbridge 2023 is 3.015, so this course is essentially woodbridge 2023 + 3 seconds (assuming the surface is the same). Woodbridge 2022 was 2.99 so it is about +2 seconds faster than last years woodbridge.
Millikan boys probably just had a good race, their number 7 was 122, we will see what they run at mt sac. I don't think they ran well at Clovis/Woodbridge. I think they ran much better at Manhattan.
Santa Monica girls -
133, 110, 99, 96, 91 - Manhattan Invitational
130, 101, 98, 94, 81 - Woodbridge Invitational
expected a small improvement seems like they had a bad race at Manhattan.
Santa Monica boys -
156, 150, 147, 146, 143, 143 - Manhattan
141, 138, 135, 133, 133, 133 - Woodbridge
Expected a large improvement from this team considering they are one of those mediocre teams that likely doesn't train well over summer. They most likely get more fit each time they race. A 10+ point improvement is to be expected in a month time of racing.
Based on the data sets looks speed ratings West vs East is pretty similar, not as bad as I was expecting it to be. Only 2 point difference in my data sets.
3 teams isn’t enough to compare. We will see what these teams run at Mt sac next week. I would say just focus on the competition in your own region. If your team makes it to nationals, then you can start worrying about out of region competition. Don’t put so much pressure on the guy making them.
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I have a feeling this is a step up for Parra. 15:28 on a muddy Manhattan course is very good. This will prepare him well for Mt. Sac. Comparing his time at Manhattan with Clovis invitational isn't fair in my opinion. Clovis was 80 degrees. That is very hot, and the leaders went out insanely fast (Parra went out with them).
At State Woodward Park should be 55-65 degree temperatures, so expect around 15:00-15:05 performance for him then. We will see if my predictions are right coming mt sac, he should run 14:40-14:45.
We already know he is very good at flat courses. 13:56 woodbridge 2022. 8:46 3200. He seems to be building up experience with more difficult courses.
Edit: I could also be wrong. We will see what he runs the next few weeks.
This post was edited 9 minutes after it was posted.
I am Expecting 5-6 cba guys above Jason Parra considering that was their season opener, parra opened in 176
I think its going to happen. CBA guys have higher speed ratings and are better at tougher courses. I know it sounds crazy because Parra is a sub 8:50 guy, but CBA is better at cross country. Checked Parra's times at Mt sac last year, 15:25, 15:15, 14:54.
Your assessment didn't pan out. 5 to 6 guys in front of Parra? Not even on foreign turf!
I think its going to happen. CBA guys have higher speed ratings and are better at tougher courses. I know it sounds crazy because Parra is a sub 8:50 guy, but CBA is better at cross country. Checked Parra's times at Mt sac last year, 15:25, 15:15, 14:54.
Your assessment didn't pan out. 5 to 6 guys in front of Parra? Not even on foreign turf!
That settles it. Early season speed ratings were slightly higher in the northeast/southeast/new york/midwest regions + maybe hole in the wall/desert twilight when compared regions such as texas/california/utah/colorado/idaho. I think it's been fixed now so speed ratings should be pretty solid moving forward.
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