Precious Roy wrote:
Russia has now found itself in a war of attrition. . . . I think Russia is going to be ready to cut a deal in the next week or two in talks in Turkey. It is just a question of whether Zelensky can manage the right wing nationalists and make some territorial concession for peace and whether the West will be willing to offer Putin an off ramp instead of insisting on impossible conditions for the cessation of sanctions.
The difficulty in any negotiated settlement is going to be the territorial concessions. I expect Ukraine could be persuaded to give up Donetsk since it's been a thorn in their side anyway, but giving up all or part of the territories forming the land route to Crimea (Zaporizhia (Mariupol) and Kherson) would be a hard sell.
Also there needs to be some enforceable deterrence to subsequent land grabs by the Russians. Any territory concessions at this time without a third party mutual defense agreement could leave the message that Russia could again escalate a few years down the road and come out ahead in negotiations. But a third party defense agreement is a hard sell to the west and to Russia, effectively Ukraine becoming a NATO-lite member.