asdfadsads wrote:
[quote]Zat0pek wrote:
[quote]adfasfdasfasd wrote: I did read your post and noticed that you didn't mention any evidence that your theories have any basis in reality.
You can start with the book Long Term Athlete Development.
Then you can randomly pick any HS graduating class and do several things using readily available results from sites like MileSplit:
(1) look to see who the top, say, 20 girls in the class nationally were when they were freshman, and how those girls were running as seniors;
(2) look up how those top seniors were running as freshman;
(3) using 9 for frosh, 10 for soph, 11 for junior and 12 for senior, calculate the average grade their 1600 and 3200 PRs were set by the top 10 girls in each group (the top 10 as frosh and the top 10 as seniors); and
(4) Count the total number of races run in the first two years of high school.
Middle school results/data are much less accessible, but where possible extend the same analysis back to when that class was in 7th-8th grade to see the really startling patterns.
You’ll find that very few of the top girls when that class were freshman are the top girls as seniors. If you can get sufficient reliable data to extend that back to 7th or 8th grade, you’ll find that the number approaches zero. The exceptions will be the uber-talented who could post great times doing multiple sports and training/racing a fraction of what the others did at that age.
You’ll find that the average grade of HS PR is about 1-1.5 years later for the top senior group than for the top frosh group. Again, even more dramatic if you can get sufficient reliable data to extend it back to 7th or 8th grade.
You’ll find that the top frosh group on average ran considerably more races the first two year in HS than the top senior group did. Again, even more dramatic if you can get sufficient reliable data to extend it back to 7th or 8th grade.
Coorelation certainly does not equal causation, but a deeper analysis will show that more extensive training and, especially, racing loads from 7th-9th grade and the earlier abandonment of multiple sports are the hallmark of girls who top out much earlier rather than continuing to develop and improve on in to their late teens and 20s.