pegs til I die wrote:
First off, Paul Escher is my favorite runner. When I think of him not winning the 1000 I am reminded of events that made him a better runner. The disappointment of getting clipped at the line and never throwing up the O again, getting cut off by Jerry, and realizing that he had bigger fish to fry and refusing to give chase to young Jerry with a week before his chance to repeat.
The weird thing with Bugler is that its not that he hasn't run under-distance. He practically specialized in the 800 and 1000 indoor for his first two seasons and ran 800/3k/1000 last year DMR (1600 leg?)/3k at conference. A conversion of his steeplechase pb as a 2 mile time (somewhat agreed upon) yields a 4:16 mile, his 8:35 indoor 3k puts him at about 4:20, and a 3:58 1500 is roughly 4:16-4:17. If he runs it, and its not a rust-buster, he will break 4:15.
But I'll go further than that. The mile will be his primary event indoor.
The indoor mile's final qualifier last year was 27th on the performance list (4:14.98)--guys running the DMR and doubling back in the 3k, guys running the 5k/3k double, or guys trying to pick off guys doing the first two by staying fresh for just the 3k--whereas the final qualifier in the 3k was 16th on the performance list (8:23.93). He has a better shot at making it in the mile than the 3k so long as he can get those wheels turning in February. Big question is venue now that the Snowshoe is the week before conference. He might have to wait for a fast race until the Olaf Last Chance.
Nice. I like that perspective on Paul Escher. He really could have gone in either direction following that race. And one thing I've always appreciated about his running is that despite being ultra competitive, he picked and chose his battles and often saved his racing for nationals.
I also liked your take on his taking up the mile as a main event this indoor season. Following up with what you said, it genuinely makes sense. I recall reading on the previous MIAC track page that Bugler anchored that DMR in a 4:20 with a sub 1:30 last 600m. With a more consistent effort he might of run under 4:17 last season.
As for venue of choice. The only two competitive indoor meets on the Johnnies schedule are the two meets hosted by Olaf. Like what you said, I doubt he will go for a fast race a week before conference. It looks like Olaf's last chance meet that he goes for a fast time. Wether that be the mile or the 3k.