Ahead of ourselves wrote:
Having run my fair share of top shelf races in my glory years, and having been top 5 in the US over 10,000 more than once; I thought the logical move to the marathon would be a fairly easy transition for me. Durden and Meyer warned me otherwise. After all, the training was essentially the same for me. How could it be any different than hammering a 20 mile long run? Unfortunately, I didn't have the same success over 26.2- not even close. With everyone giving the mantle to Rupp, I find it difficult that not one voice of reason with personal experience has spoken up. The marathon is a funny event. It humbles the best of them. My bet is that he finishes around 7th in LA. I'm as hopeful as the next American to see him emerge as our next great marathoner; but think it will take time. Potential is there, but reality bows to no man.
Three quick things:
1. An athletes who has run a 26:44 10K, has probably done several long runs at the USOMT pace. Perhaps in Rupp's case the 10k to 2:05 marathon conversion does not work, but he does have run anywhere near that fast on Saturday.
2. Rupp just time trailed a 61:20 half marathon a couple of weeks ago and has half PR.
3. With so much at stake this year, there no way AlSal would allow Rupp to the enter the OMT unless they thought Rupp had a good shot of winning an Olympic medal, let alone making the USOT. I don't know how Rupp would do in a WMM, but I can't him struggling in USOMT race were the first 20 miles will be like a training for him.