I understand your point now. I'm not sure why a decrease in performance level in 1999, a decrease independent of new controls for EPO which came later, means that EPO had nothing to do with the rise in the first place. 1999 certainly doesn't continue the trend seen throughout the 90s of improving performances, but the fact that 1999 doesn't continue the trend doesn't discount that EPO was the only new factor which could have given rise to the trend in the first place. (Even dopers get hurt or tired, run slowly in bad weather, prioritize differently, etc. It doesn't discount everything before that.)It sounds like we agree more than we disagree. It also sounds like you are moving away from your original statement:
when you now say
So to your previous post.
You're right. I conflated your argument with Renato's. My mistake. For everyone else arguing that point, my comment still stands.
I brought this up in my previous post, but I'm not sure the benefit of lumping together events like the 800m and marathon. I'm a little tired of looking at results (for below), so I am asking if you still have the data you used to make that calculation: What is the effect if you take the 1500m-Marathon? Or, what is the effect in the 800-3000 and 5000-marathon? I get that the 800 is a distance event, but it is disingenuous to understanding the benefits of EPO to weigh it the same as the more traditional distance/aerobically demanding events.
There are more exceptions than Spain and Germany. I took the national #1 5000m time by a native European of several nations, listed below. Only sub 13:30 available
National #1 by year
Germany
1988 13:15.5 Dieter Baumann GER
1989 13:18.6 Dieter Baumann GER
1990 13:29.2 Steffen Brand GER
1991 13:24.6 Dieter Baumann GER
1992 13:09.0 Dieter Baumann GER
1993 13:13.2 Stéphane Franke GER
1994 13:12.5 Dieter Baumann GER
1995 13:01.7 Dieter Baumann
1996 13:08.8 Dieter Baumann GER
1997 12:54.7 Dieter Baumann
1998 13:04.1 Dieter Baumann GER
1999 13:02.6 Dieter Baumann GER
2000 13:21.5 Jirka Arndt GER
2001
2002 13:07.4 Dieter Baumann GER
2003 13:15.1 Dieter Baumann GER
2004
2005
France
1988 13:17.5 Pascal Thiébaut
1989 13:25.8 Thierry Pantel FRA
1990 13:21.8 Thierry Pantel
1991 13:19.7 Pascal Thiébaut
1992 13:14.5 António Martins
1993 13:21.2 António Martins
1994 13:24.5 António Martins FRA
1995 13:20.2 Larbi Zéroual FRA
1996 - - -
1997 - - -
1998 13:26.6 Eric Dubus FRA
1999 = = =
2000
2001
2002 13:29.8 Loïc Letellier FRA
2003 13:23.7 Loïc Letellier FRA
2004
2005
Norway
1988 13:20.8 Lars Ove Strømø NOR
1989 13:19.8 Are Nakkim NOR
1990 13:20.7 Are Nakkim NOR
1991 13:29.6 John Halvorsen NOR
1992 - -
1993 - - -
1994 - - -
1995 - - -
1996 = = =
1997 - - -
1998
1999 13:22.6 Marius Bakken NOR
2000 13:11.3 Marius Bakken NOR
2001 13:09.2 Marius Bakken NOR
2002
2003
2004 13:06.4 Marius Bakken NOR
GBR
1988 13:21.6 Paul Davies-Hale GBR
1989 13:17.8 Jack Buckner GBR
1990 13:14.3 Gary Staines GBR
1991 13:13.0 Robert Denmark GBR
1992 13:10.2 Robert Denmark GBR
1993 13:16.5 Robert Denmark GBR
1994 13:22.4 Robert Denmark GBR
1995 13:13.8 Robert Denmark GBR
1996 13:17.5 John Nuttall GBR
1997 13:17.2 Keith Cullen GBR
1998 13:19.0 Jon Brown GBR
1999 13:23.1 Karl Keska GBR
2000 13:28.2 Kris Bowditch GBR
2001 13:24.4 Michael Openshaw GBR
2002 13:19.4 John Mayock GBR
2003
2004 13:23.0 John Mayock GBR
2005
Sweeden
1988 13:20.3 Johnny Danielsson SWE
1989 - -
1990 13:24.2 Johnny Danielsson SWE
1991 13:21.1 Johnny Danielsson SWE
1992 13:23.2 Johnny Danielsson SWE
1993 13:29.5 Johnny Danielsson
1994 - - -
1995 - - -
1996 = = =
1997 - - -
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003 13:23.2 Erik Sjöqvist SWE
Spain
1988 13:20.7 Abel Antón ESP
1989 13:20.9 Alejandro Gómez ESP
1990 13:23.1 Antonio Prieto ESP
1991 13:20.0 Martin Fiz ESP
1992 13:21.9 Abel Antón ESP
1993 13:17.5 Abel Antón ESP
1994 13:15.2 Abel Antón ESP
1995 13:13.6 Enrique Molina
1996 13:11.1 Enrique Molina ESP
1997 13:07.3 Enrique Molina ESP
1998 13:04.6 Alberto GarcÃa ESP
1999 13:08.1 Alberto GarcÃa ESP
2000 13:07.6 José Rios ESP
2001 13:02.5 Alberto GarcÃa
2002 13:08.6 José Rios ESP
2003 13:20.5 Juan Carlos de la Ossa ESP
2004 13:15.4 José Manuel Martinez ESP
Italy
1988 13:16.1 Salvatore Antibo ITA
1989 13:14.3 Salvatore Antibo ITA
1990 13:05.6 Salvatore Antibo ITA
1991 13:10.1 Salvatore Antibo ITA
1992 13:10.1 Salvatore Antibo ITA
1993 13:06.8 Francesco Panetta ITA
1994 13:26.9 Umberto Pusterla ITA
1995 13:17.5 Gennaro Di Napoli ITA
1996 13:21.9 Gennaro Di Napoli ITA
1997 13:18.5 Gennaro Di Napoli ITA
1998 13:27.3 Simone Zanon ITA
1999 13:20.9 Giuliano Battocletti ITA
2000 13:22.0 Salvatore Vincenti ITA
2001 13:26.3 Daniele Caimmi ITA
2002 - - -
2003 13:29.2 Marco Mazza ITA
2004
2005
Portugal
1988 13:15.6 José Regalo POR
1989 13:16.9 Dionisio Castro POR
1990 13:13.6 Dionisio Castro POR
1991 13:17.3 Dionisio Castro POR
1992 13:20.0 Domingos Castro POR
1993 13:14.7 Domingos Castro POR
1994 13:17.3 Domingos Castro
1995 13:18.6 Paulo Guerra POR
1996 13:18.6 Paulo Guerra POR
1997 13:20.5 Domingos Castro POR
1998 13:02.9 António Pinto
1999 13:05.8 António Pinto POR
2000 13:18.6 Hélder Ornelas POR
2001 13:23.2 Hélder Ornelas POR
2002
2003
2004 13:19.2 Rui Silva POR
2005
IRL
1988 13:17.1 John Doherty IRL
1989 13:15.1 John Doherty IRL
Bologna 13:14.2 John Doherty IRL
1991 13:18.8 Frank O'Mara IRL
1992 13:16.7 Frank O'Mara IRL
1993 13:17.7 Frank O'Mara IRL
1994 13:26.7 Frank O'Mara
1995 13:13.9 Mark Carroll IRL
1996 13:29.6 Cormac Finnerty IRL
1997 13:14.1 Mark Carroll IRL
1998 13:03.9 Mark Carroll IRL
1999 07:30.4 Mark Carroll IRL
2000 13:09.6 Mark Carroll IRL
2001 13:08.3 Mark Carroll IRL
2002 - - -
2003 13:19.2 Cathal Lombard IRL
2004 13:12.7 Alistair Cragg IRL
Some notes: EPO test delivered in 2000. Italian doping investigations regarding Conconi, cyclists, in 1997. Dieter Bauman caught in 1999. I noticed that Ukraine also drew up suspicios results but wasn't recording them. PEDs illegal in France since 1967(I think). SVK national record holder Róbert Štefko (13:19, 1995) is coach of recently banned Lisa Nemec.
Conclusions: except for Norway and Sweeden, every country follows the same pattern. Several years at the 13:20 range, and then performances reaching down to 13:05 range. POR, ITA, ESP, GER, IRL all drop below 13:05, while GBR and FRA get to 13:10.
We still see improvements of 2-3%.
So. To your original #1 point from your first post, we can infer that the performance benefit from EPO is not over stated. Unless you are being a literalist, and expecting 5-7% from elites, but you have already said that you don't expect elites to get the same level of benefit as amateurs.
And to everyone else, the effect is even more pronounced with the East and North Africans. This post was just in response to Aragon's comment about Europeans.
So. After many posts, we still have no good reason to expect that elite runners don't benefit from EPO. Canova still hasn't shown why well trained Africans cannot benefit, and we can infer that the impact of EPO is not overstated.