krispy kremlin wrote:
I won't hedge my bet from before even in light of this being an early season race: 51.9 + 52.6 = 1:44.5
So you think JW could make the US team in the 800 for the WCs. Right?
krispy kremlin wrote:
I won't hedge my bet from before even in light of this being an early season race: 51.9 + 52.6 = 1:44.5
So you think JW could make the US team in the 800 for the WCs. Right?
Slower than an 42 year old Master........
agip wrote:
krispy kremlin wrote:I won't hedge my bet from before even in light of this being an early season race: 51.9 + 52.6 = 1:44.5
So you think JW could make the US team in the 800 for the WCs. Right?
Did anyone think Brandon Johnson could?
JW will undeniable be the fastest guy [generally speaking] toeing the line of any 800m race. We talk about NSym and DSol raw 400 speed - JW'a is in a different league.
krispy kremlin wrote:
agip wrote:So you think JW could make the US team in the 800 for the WCs. Right?
Did anyone think Brandon Johnson could?
JW will undeniable be the fastest guy [generally speaking] toeing the line of any 800m race. We talk about NSym and DSol raw 400 speed - JW'a is in a different league.
okay! Way to stick to your guns. Now we'll see if this actually happens - I'd give it 50/50 max
krispy kremlin wrote:
I won't hedge my bet from before even in light of this being an early season race: 51.9 + 52.6 = 1:44.5
I like your attitude. Unfortunately, you and JW will learn that 800m requires a surprisingly strong aerobic support. JW can still build one in a couple of years if he so chooses, then he'd go 51+53 = 1:45.
Now it'll be 52+57 = 1:49.
To assess Wariner's 800 capability scientifically, one must of course compare him to that other notable 400-800 man, Alberto Juantorena, who had PRs of 44.26 and 1:43.44.
The two athletes are so similar that Wariner almost doesn't have to actually run an 800, for this happens to be one those questions that admits of fairly exact calculation.
Now obviously, with a 400 PR of 43.45, Wariner is a full 1.01 second faster at the shorter distance; therefore at twice the distance we should expect twice the time margin, = 2.02 seconds. Subtracting 2.02 seconds from Juanto's 1:43.44 yields an 800 time for Wariner of precisely 1:41.42.
But this prediction is only a first-order approximation. For as we know, performance attained, by definition, can never exceed abillity. All performances are underperformances. Therefore, great though they were, the PRs of Juanto and Wariner could not have been perfect, and must have left room for improvement.
And here in the 21st century, Wariner has many advantages over Juantorena -- principally, access to Letsrun.com. Estimating this factor conservatively at even 1% -- off of 800 times near 100 seconds -- then Wariner's expected 800 time must be expected to be another second faster.
Thus Wariner should expect to run 1:40.4. The only question is when. Here also the data is sufficient. Both men started in the 400 and later took up the 800; and in the latter Juanto achieved record times after only a handful of races. So it shouldn't take long for Wariner to eclipse Rudisha.
Of course, as we true Men of Science are well aware, our opinions can only be humble, for who are we, sitting in even the most sophisticated library or advanced laboratory, to presume to prescribe the limits of athletes?
In what world does 44.26 minus 43.45 = "a full 1.01 second faster"?
Can you add sub 1:43?
8 World and Olympic gold medals! If he hadn't switched coaches, he'd have added to that total in 2008 and 2009 in the individual races. Even in the semis at Beijing he ran 44.12 while easing up, but it looked to me as if his problem in the finals was mental, rather than physical, running a full second behind Merritt, almost as if he lost the belief. According to Wiki, he is 6'0" 150 lbs. Don't tell me that isn't perfect for an 800m runner. In that 43.45 race, he shows no signs of tiring, unlike all the rest.
Meb FTW wrote:
krispy kremlin wrote:I won't hedge my bet from before even in light of this being an early season race: 51.9 + 52.6 = 1:44.5
I like your attitude. Unfortunately, you and JW will learn that 800m requires a surprisingly strong aerobic support. JW can still build one in a couple of years if he so chooses, then he'd go 51+53 = 1:45.
Now it'll be 52+57 = 1:49.
I agree with you mostly. But I doubt he will JW will "choose" to "build.....(the) surprisingly strong aerobic support" necessary to run a really good 800.
I do think he had 1:43 capabilities back when he was a 43.5 guy, if he had then continued with some serious maintenance on his top end speed while REALLY making the 800 his focus. But....he never did make the 800 his focus, I doubt he ever will make it his focus, and of course he is not a 43.5 guy anymore.
But I like your prediction. If he runs 1:48 (52/56), coming off an injury, and with only really dabbling with this 800 try, then yes, he could still run a really nice 800 (1:44) in the future *IF* (and again, there is like a 1% chance he will) he goes full bore into making 800 his event.
As he's opening up the season' rather than switching to the 800m I'll go for 1:52
43.50 Stockholm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C20c7u_Yzxg
Also, 800m involves tactics and running in/against a pack. Has JW ever run a race that did not involve staying in only one lane?
I think your right with 1:52 although my initial suggestion was 1:48. Indoors and first race. Although 27 second 200's should be very achievable for someone with his ability.
But... wrote:
Daryl Basarab wrote:I think Warner is particularly interesting because he has a lighter build and runs with fast turnover rather than raw power.
So he realistically could move up.
Except that he should have retired years ago.
Why?
Anyone have a good guess on how much money he has, or has made from track? Do you think he'll have to get a real job at some point? Mailman, cop, etc?
I don't ever recall him having any endorsement deals. He was a golden boy for a few years
krispy kremlin wrote:
43.50 Stockholm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C20c7u_YzxgAlso, 800m involves tactics and running in/against a pack. Has JW ever run a race that did not involve staying in only one lane?
4x400
Bros,
If anyone knows what J dubs can run, it's the man himself. He knows what workouts he's been doing, and he knows what kind of shape he's in. And don't act like he's completely oblivious to what it takes to run an 8, that's just insulting. Dudes a pro. If he thinks he can run 1:47-48, that's probably where he'll be.
Dr. Van Nostrand wrote:
Bros,
If anyone knows what J dubs can run, it's the man himself. He knows what workouts he's been doing, and he knows what kind of shape he's in. And don't act like he's completely oblivious to what it takes to run an 8, that's just insulting. Dudes a pro. If he thinks he can run 1:47-48, that's probably where he'll be.
Exactly.
On a side note, based on how much they look alike, what do y'all think Vanilla Ice could've run in the 400 and 800 at his peak.
They both kind of look and move like black guys in white bodies. Strange.
This is a gimmick to get attention. IF he runs an 800, it won't be a serious attempt at any kind of great performance with high expectations and will probably be a low key affair against 3rd rate hacks. If he opens against legitimate competition, it could even go as bad as dropping out to dragging a$$ into the finish in embarrassment which never helps the confidence. This whole idea sometimes occurs when a person who achieved so much but didn't finish the career like they thought they should have and want to make a comeback of some kind. Not competitive with the big dogs at the 400 so now he thinks he can move up? Get ready to have your head handed to you. I wanted to see him at his best. Not just still trying to hang on. However, he does have balls if he sticks with it. You can't compare to El Caballo because he did them both at the same time. JW/Coach Hart focused on speed & speed endurance and rhythm, not endurance. His 200 times were pretty salty and you can't train for 200-800m and get anything done at a high level.
It's interesting to note that by looking at JW's SBs during the last 4 years (2011-2014), they have all been achieved in either April or May. That's an indicator that injuries have played a major role during that period hampering his progress and mid-late season form, so In my humble opinion provided he stays injury free he still has something to offer to high level athletics.
That being said, there is no chance of ever seeing the sub 44secs Wariner again. Injuries, wear and tear, age and training effort over the years have made their impact negatively. But can he still pull a mid-high 44sec 400m and make the team and squeeze into world finals (not getting anywhere near the medals)? I think that's possible though still very slim.
Either way he's had a career most athletes could only ever dream of, and should be proud of his accomplishments without any shame. It indeed would have been very interesting if he had just run a few 800s in his prime while still concentrating on the 400m to see where his true potential in the event was.