That isn't the argument. It is quite simply that in any race below wr pace it will be be necessary to have some kind of kick for Jakob to beat his strongest competitors. Jakob's kick in any race slower than that pace is not as good as some of his competition because he doesn't have the same kind of speed as they have, as his slower 800m performances show. It isn't complicated.
What happened in the Euro final then? Race far below wr pace, and Jakob has no kick?
He began a long drive for home, from 2 laps out, which is, as I said, his best tactical option. But he wasn't facing runners of the calibre of Kerr, Wightman and Nuguse. The early pace would probably need to be faster than 1:55 for the first 800 to run the kick out of their legs. 3:31x wouldn't be enough for him to win in Paris - probably at least 3 seconds faster.
This post was edited 43 seconds after it was posted.
That isn't the argument. It is quite simply that in any race below wr pace it will be be necessary to have some kind of kick for Jakob to beat his strongest competitors. Jakob's kick in any race slower than that pace is not as good as some of his competition because he doesn't have the same kind of speed as they have, as his slower 800m performances show. It isn't complicated.
Laughable.
That's what Kerr and Wightman have been doing. Laughing their way to beating Jakob.
I think his race in this past European Championships actually shows the way to WIN against Josh Kerr and everybody else in the field, hear me out.
I agree with everything you said detailing Jakob, but I don’t think he needs to run 3:28 to win Olympic Gold. Obviously he ran that in Tokyo, but he had someone to draft off of who was running really fast (sub 56 sec laps). It was a perfect race for him to win gold. But we will never see someone pace him again like this, well, atleast not in the traditional sense (more on that later). Moreover, I don’t think it’s Jakobs lack of 50 meter acceleration or strength that cost him in 2022 or even 2023, I firmly believe it was his tactics instead.
Think about this, in Eugene 2022, his first lap was 55.9 and wightmans was 55.75. That’s great for Jakob, except for the fact that his entire first lap was in lane 2. That’s almost 10 meters atleast of extra distance covered as compared to Wightman, who tucked into lane 1, drafted, and ran like that majority of the race. The next 300 meters? Jakob continues running in lane 2 at a fast pace and surges to the front in 1:37.69 at 700m to get ahead of Kipsang. Picture this, if all that lane 2 running for the first 700 meters equated to about maybe 14 meters of extra distance run, what do you think he actually went through 700m in? Probably 1:35 high! The guy wasted so much energy from running in lane 2, and then later on defending his position from Tim Cheruiyot, that he of course could not respond to Wightman, who ran a perfectly even race in lane 1, and used his energy to pass him with 200 to go. Jakob SEEMED like he was lagging on the third lap with a 56.xx, but really if he ran the race with more ideal distance covered, it would have been more like 2:46-2:47 at 1200m. The dude still got 2nd while running like an idiot at what is quite possibly almost WR tempo. There was no better “800m” ability or kick or lack of strength, Jakob just raced like an idiot! Even Katir (similarly to Nordas who I will describe in the next paragraph) got third in this race just by starting in the back, using the least energy. Then, when the pace lagged he made up places, and had tons of energy left at the end to use it to get bronze.
Now as for Budapest 2023, Jakob found an even greater gear beforehand, running 3:27.14 in Silesa about a month before the final. He surely had to be close to 3:26.xx ability by the time August came around…but he lost again. I want to start off by saying that I think his illness affected him MARGINALLY. It negatively affected his fitness and added to his loss. But, I think what hit the nail in the coffin for his still incredible 2nd place finish were his tactics again! Jakob opens up very fiercly in 27.2 at the 200m and then 41.29 for the 300m, tucking behind Kipsang, who then slows them down tremendously after 400 in 56. Then…Jakob gets to the front and slows them down to a 58.xx sec lap at 800m. What was the point of this? He opened up so fast for the first 200 and 300, spiking his heart rate, lactic acid, whatever you want to call it, only to slow it down and then lead to 800m at a much slower pace? Compare that to Kerr. Tucked in nicely in the middle of the pack(I don’t think the position really matters, could have been in the back like nordas) and ran a first lap of 56.66, and a 2nd lap of 58.xx, which was much more even and in lane 1 without needing to pass someone. Even Nordas, who started at the very back. Got 3rd in this race by only needing to run a first 400m in 57.09 and 800m in 1:55.36, more even than both Kerr and Ingebrigtsen and he only finished 0.03 seconds behind Jakob and 0.3 sec behind Kerr. The real takeaway though is what happened on the third lap. The pace slowed ENOUGH on the 2nd lap to allow Kerr to go into Lane 2 and almost even lane 3 to get past everybody in the blink of 50-100m to tuck in behind Jakob with minimal energy usage since everybody was slowing down. It was obvious that this guy was going to shred Jakob on the final 200m, because he ran a smarter race! Jakob was sick + went out way harder than Kerr or Nordas and was in lane 2ish for the first lap, it was bound to be close and it was with his 2nd place finish. This is not even considering the drafting component of Kerr or wightman in these races.
And do you know whats incredible, the guy still gets 2nd even though he runs distance and effort-wise the worst in the top 3 at the two championships. This leads me though to the European Champs 1500m.
He opens up with a 15.1 second 100m 😂 like 5-10ish meters behind the field and then speeds up to a 28.9 200m and catches up to them, while Ignacio Fontes pushed a fast first 300m. The difference though is that Jakob did not rush to the front…He trusted himself and his ability to conserve energy, all while running in lane 1. And guess what? After a 41.73 opening 300m, the pace immediately slowed down and Jakob was able to effortlessly glide around everybody from 400m-500m and get to the front with about 1000m to go. THIS IS HOW YOU DO IT. Jakob does not need to push super hard the first 300m to take the lead and then keep on pushing a fast pace. What he needs to do is stay in lane 1, wait until they slow down after having wasted energy, then go wide and relaxed and get to the front and wind up the pace from there. This allowed Jakob to run a final 400m of 53.3, with the final 300m splits of 13.54, 13.25, and 12.86! He destroyed the field with his strength because he raced smartly. Habz, who had a 1:43 800m PB, got shredded in the final 200m by Jakob. Or Gourley with his 3:47 mile PB, was distanced by almost 2 seconds in the final 100m by Jakob. Part of the problem is expectation. Jakob feels the need to just go wire to wire because it’s the most impressive way to win, but it’s an incredibly stupid way to race, especially in a 1500m with no rabbits. Imagine if he had raced Budapest by starting in the back with Nordas, and then when Kipsang started to lag in pace between 400-600m, he could get to front pretty easily? He would have had energy to fend off Kerrs final 100m of 13.6 as compared to his own 13.9, even while sick!
This is the strategy he needs to use. Start at the back at a pedestrian pace, let them go out fast. Then, when it lags in pace from 400-700m, get to the front with the most energy possible and grind them down with a fast final 800m El Guerrouj style. I hope he does it this way, it’s his best shot without a pacemaker.
Interesting and detailed and well written post, but highly deceptive (18-0 in upvotes!)…
You are making a very convincing narrative for why one strategy is better than others (especially for Jakob), and in your analysis of several races you over do some traits and under do some others -in that way you get everything to add up very well… OK -we all do things like that, but you do it grossly, and helped by the fact that everything turned out (winning or not) according to your theory in the races you mention. Very convincing when we know the outcome…
I don’t think there is one strategy in the 1500m, not even for the single athlete. And I don’t think athletes are idiots -running a (almost) perfect race is really really difficult, and depends quite a lot on luck and coincidence. And sometimes one must give something to achieve the greater good. And it’s hilarious when you point out that running in lane two is extra meters (don’t you think Jakob knows that, and would prefer lane 1 if possible!), but it really gets funny when you forward Nordås as a tactical genius -the man who has run one good tactical race (WC 2023), because he was lucky by how everything turned out, but double digits of bad ones, some really bad..!
Wightman ran (as I have pointed out in earlier threads) a good tactical race in WC 2022, close to the rail. But it wasn’t perfect -all comes with a cost. -He had to run in a tight pack, there were some “stop / start” incidents, one (voluntarily) was when he past Cheruiyot and stopped at Jakob’s back. So did he win because of tactics? Not in my view, because Jakob did very much some of your recommendations (a very pedestrian first 100m, although you would like it longer) -the consequences were that inner lane was occupied when Jakob could have taken the leaders back. -So he gained something (pedestrian initial pace) and lost something (wide bend + lane two 600m further). But one cannot expect perfect luck -my conclusion is that Jakob lost for a better runner that day (just compare their season best that were very alike) / a likely good runner that was marginally luckier with the outcome of his tactics… A 2023 healthy Jakob would have crushed Jake, but Jakob wasn’t in his 2023 shape the past year.
2023 WC: Why do you think Jakob opened so fast that he did? Don’t you think this experienced racer knows about adrenaline, and lactate and heart rate? A guy who is one of the few who dares to go out pedestrian (in other races) because of the benefit of holding an even pace? -My guesses: He wanted to outrun his competitors in a dominant solo race, in 3.27 flat, and therefore he had to hit the lead. And therefore the slow second lap when nothing felt right..
You think Jakob’s sickness gave a marginally slower performance? Well, I don’t - my guesses are 3 sec reduction in shape. And I think his tactics was fine, and that you under do the disadvantages Kerr had to suffer in the field (he tells about them in one of his interviews). And the Euros: A very dangerous tactic from Jakob. -He had to run extremely wide to reach the lead, and the effortless outcome is not realistic to be duplicated in Paris (silver in Euros was by a 3.32 pb athlete, whereas in the Olympics he will have to deal with 3.27 potentials). Jakob could of course get lucky -the pace dropping just at the right time, and the wide bends no problem. But if he is not he could really be screwed…
The one thing fans show in these threads is that they have no idea what they are seeing on the track. All they see is their idol.
What's hilarious to me is how many of the posters here don't even seem to understand basic terminology in the 15.
What is a "kick"? A kick is the ability to acccelerate rapidly from a somewhat sub-maximal pace. It is useful in championships for tactical reasons because the lack of a pacer means they are often run at slower speeds than paced Diamond League competitions. A kick is normally seen from around 250m out or less in the 1500m. Generally speaking 1500m athletes with a kick also have fast 800m times.
Is finishing quickly a "kick"? Not necessarily. Winding up the race speed beginning from 1,000m-400m is not a kick as it simply represents either moving away from the opposition steadily or putting sufficient aerobic demands on them that they are unable to utilise their rapid acceleration.
Jakob did not "kick" away from Cheriyout in Tokyo because he was paced to a 3:28 low by Tim from the second lap onwards.
It's incredible to me things as basic as this seem controversial for the Jakob fanboys who populate much of this board.
Jakob did not "kick" away from Cheriyout in Tokyo because he was paced to a 3:28 low by Tim from the second lap onwards.
Good to know, then Kerr didn't outkick Jakob in Budapest either.
Kerr employed a kick at around the 200m mark but it wasn't immediately successful as Wightman's was in Eugene. He eased away from Ingebrightsen from about 75m out because responding to a kick is more difficult for Jakob than it is for him.
I think his race in this past European Championships actually shows the way to WIN against Josh Kerr and everybody else in the field, hear me out.
I agree with everything you said detailing Jakob, but I don’t think he needs to run 3:28 to win Olympic Gold. Obviously he ran that in Tokyo, but he had someone to draft off of who was running really fast (sub 56 sec laps). It was a perfect race for him to win gold. But we will never see someone pace him again like this, well, atleast not in the traditional sense (more on that later). Moreover, I don’t think it’s Jakobs lack of 50 meter acceleration or strength that cost him in 2022 or even 2023, I firmly believe it was his tactics instead.
Think about this, in Eugene 2022, his first lap was 55.9 and wightmans was 55.75. That’s great for Jakob, except for the fact that his entire first lap was in lane 2. That’s almost 10 meters atleast of extra distance covered as compared to Wightman, who tucked into lane 1, drafted, and ran like that majority of the race. The next 300 meters? Jakob continues running in lane 2 at a fast pace and surges to the front in 1:37.69 at 700m to get ahead of Kipsang. Picture this, if all that lane 2 running for the first 700 meters equated to about maybe 14 meters of extra distance run, what do you think he actually went through 700m in? Probably 1:35 high! The guy wasted so much energy from running in lane 2, and then later on defending his position from Tim Cheruiyot, that he of course could not respond to Wightman, who ran a perfectly even race in lane 1, and used his energy to pass him with 200 to go. Jakob SEEMED like he was lagging on the third lap with a 56.xx, but really if he ran the race with more ideal distance covered, it would have been more like 2:46-2:47 at 1200m. The dude still got 2nd while running like an idiot at what is quite possibly almost WR tempo. There was no better “800m” ability or kick or lack of strength, Jakob just raced like an idiot! Even Katir (similarly to Nordas who I will describe in the next paragraph) got third in this race just by starting in the back, using the least energy. Then, when the pace lagged he made up places, and had tons of energy left at the end to use it to get bronze.
Now as for Budapest 2023, Jakob found an even greater gear beforehand, running 3:27.14 in Silesa about a month before the final. He surely had to be close to 3:26.xx ability by the time August came around…but he lost again. I want to start off by saying that I think his illness affected him MARGINALLY. It negatively affected his fitness and added to his loss. But, I think what hit the nail in the coffin for his still incredible 2nd place finish were his tactics again! Jakob opens up very fiercly in 27.2 at the 200m and then 41.29 for the 300m, tucking behind Kipsang, who then slows them down tremendously after 400 in 56. Then…Jakob gets to the front and slows them down to a 58.xx sec lap at 800m. What was the point of this? He opened up so fast for the first 200 and 300, spiking his heart rate, lactic acid, whatever you want to call it, only to slow it down and then lead to 800m at a much slower pace? Compare that to Kerr. Tucked in nicely in the middle of the pack(I don’t think the position really matters, could have been in the back like nordas) and ran a first lap of 56.66, and a 2nd lap of 58.xx, which was much more even and in lane 1 without needing to pass someone. Even Nordas, who started at the very back. Got 3rd in this race by only needing to run a first 400m in 57.09 and 800m in 1:55.36, more even than both Kerr and Ingebrigtsen and he only finished 0.03 seconds behind Jakob and 0.3 sec behind Kerr. The real takeaway though is what happened on the third lap. The pace slowed ENOUGH on the 2nd lap to allow Kerr to go into Lane 2 and almost even lane 3 to get past everybody in the blink of 50-100m to tuck in behind Jakob with minimal energy usage since everybody was slowing down. It was obvious that this guy was going to shred Jakob on the final 200m, because he ran a smarter race! Jakob was sick + went out way harder than Kerr or Nordas and was in lane 2ish for the first lap, it was bound to be close and it was with his 2nd place finish. This is not even considering the drafting component of Kerr or wightman in these races.
And do you know whats incredible, the guy still gets 2nd even though he runs distance and effort-wise the worst in the top 3 at the two championships. This leads me though to the European Champs 1500m.
He opens up with a 15.1 second 100m 😂 like 5-10ish meters behind the field and then speeds up to a 28.9 200m and catches up to them, while Ignacio Fontes pushed a fast first 300m. The difference though is that Jakob did not rush to the front…He trusted himself and his ability to conserve energy, all while running in lane 1. And guess what? After a 41.73 opening 300m, the pace immediately slowed down and Jakob was able to effortlessly glide around everybody from 400m-500m and get to the front with about 1000m to go. THIS IS HOW YOU DO IT. Jakob does not need to push super hard the first 300m to take the lead and then keep on pushing a fast pace. What he needs to do is stay in lane 1, wait until they slow down after having wasted energy, then go wide and relaxed and get to the front and wind up the pace from there. This allowed Jakob to run a final 400m of 53.3, with the final 300m splits of 13.54, 13.25, and 12.86! He destroyed the field with his strength because he raced smartly. Habz, who had a 1:43 800m PB, got shredded in the final 200m by Jakob. Or Gourley with his 3:47 mile PB, was distanced by almost 2 seconds in the final 100m by Jakob. Part of the problem is expectation. Jakob feels the need to just go wire to wire because it’s the most impressive way to win, but it’s an incredibly stupid way to race, especially in a 1500m with no rabbits. Imagine if he had raced Budapest by starting in the back with Nordas, and then when Kipsang started to lag in pace between 400-600m, he could get to front pretty easily? He would have had energy to fend off Kerrs final 100m of 13.6 as compared to his own 13.9, even while sick!
This is the strategy he needs to use. Start at the back at a pedestrian pace, let them go out fast. Then, when it lags in pace from 400-700m, get to the front with the most energy possible and grind them down with a fast final 800m El Guerrouj style. I hope he does it this way, it’s his best shot without a pacemaker.
This is a good post, and honestly this is how Marco Arop beat a marginally fitter Emmanuel Wanyonyi at Worlds last year in the 800m, albeit in a slower race. There are a few benefits to Jakob chilling out the first 1/2 of the race like Arop did and then dialing it down from there:
A) Element of Surprise — his competitors are used to dictating close to the whole race, now they spend the first 700-800 jockeying for position as their race plan (predicated on a fast pace with Jakob driving it) goes out the window
B) Energy/Pace Management — Leading for 900+ meters is hard and not something Jakob has to do on the circuit with pacemakers and wavelight as aids helping him conserve energy
C) Definitive Move — Instead of having to make distinct kicks and fending off hard moves, Jakob can just make it extremely hard from far out while banking on the advantage of getting a step on his competitors and having the unopposed inside line as a key advantage
There are some challenges to what you are saying, however. Unlike at Euros, it is less clear that the pace will radically slow down allowing Jakob to easily get to the front. A confident and healthy Tim Cheruiyot might try to control a 3:29-3:31 race from the front with Josh Kerr and Yared Nuguse lurking on his shoulder/ in his slipstream. So getting past everyone to the front will be harder with better athletes blocking the way and a hotter pace to get by. Kerr has shown that he could/would react if Jakob came by on his shoulder for the pass. He was very physical at World Indoors 3K with Barega. If he continues with that maybe he would be waiting for Jakob and be ready to beat him to the punch and force him wide by speeding up and throwin his weight around. Secondarily, Tim or whoever is leading might surge to keep the inside line instead of being deferential.
So to me I've always thought Jakob shoud let someone else do the leading for the first 600 or 800 and then make his pass. But whether he does this by running in the pack like El Guerrouj grew to do or saving it in the back should be more dependent on how the race goes. If it's relatively honest with Tim at front, I don't think he should wait too long to get mid-pack. If it's a jog (unlikely), sure he can chill in the back.
The one thing fans show in these threads is that they have no idea what they are seeing on the track. All they see is their idol.
In all your thousands and thousands of posts you have shown your bias, your inability to think rationally, your terrible character when never agreeing when being wrong and instead starting to call all the others by bad names. But with your Jakob-mission you're just showing to everybody which 75 years old child you are. If he wins two more Golds in Paris with fantastic performances beating Nuguse, Kerr, Wightman, in sub 3:27 and all those 12:40 athletes with a final kilometer in 2:22, you will point on his lack of speed. I really have never seen a person of your age acting more silly.
The one thing fans show in these threads is that they have no idea what they are seeing on the track. All they see is their idol.
In all your thousands and thousands of posts you have shown your bias, your inability to think rationally, your terrible character when never agreeing when being wrong and instead starting to call all the others by bad names. But with your Jakob-mission you're just showing to everybody which 75 years old child you are. If he wins two more Golds in Paris with fantastic performances beating Nuguse, Kerr, Wightman, in sub 3:27 and all those 12:40 athletes with a final kilometer in 2:22, you will point on his lack of speed. I really have never seen a person of your age acting more silly.
I can always depend on a fan to prove me right. "If this and if that" - it hasn't happened, and may never.
You are now on 29,962 posts, the last one minute ago (this is visible if you click on the name). Here's what one of your previous 29,961 posts said in contrast:
"Armstronglivs registered Follow Block #7 3 years ago 05/23/2021 8:57am EDT re: Deanouk ReplyBack To Index Deanouk wrote: ?????? wrote: 440 y- splits 55.07 880- 1:51.58 1320-2:47.91 Mile-3:43.13 The first 2 of those splits are for the pacer in front. Only the 2:47.91 is El G's. His splits for 440's were: - 55.6, 1:51.8, 2:47.9, 3:43.13. So, that works out at - 55.6, 56.2, 56.1, 55.2 - pretty much the most even splits of any mile WR, and he had drafting all the way to the bell. Perfect conditions, pacing and drafting. That's insane speed. Most here probably couldn't do his splits just for one lap."
You are now on 29,962 posts, the last one minute ago (this is visible if you click on the name). Here's what one of your previous 29,961 posts said in contrast:
"Armstronglivs registered Follow Block #7 3 years ago 05/23/2021 8:57am EDT re: Deanouk ReplyBack To Index Deanouk wrote: ?????? wrote: 440 y- splits 55.07 880- 1:51.58 1320-2:47.91 Mile-3:43.13 The first 2 of those splits are for the pacer in front. Only the 2:47.91 is El G's. His splits for 440's were: - 55.6, 1:51.8, 2:47.9, 3:43.13. So, that works out at - 55.6, 56.2, 56.1, 55.2 - pretty much the most even splits of any mile WR, and he had drafting all the way to the bell. Perfect conditions, pacing and drafting. That's insane speed. Most here probably couldn't do his splits just for one lap."
yup, Armstrong is a troll. He believes maybe half of what he says, and then it exaggerates that belief further. the other half, he has zero conviction for.
Jakob is toying around with European B-Elite at sub 3:32. Let's see how it goes when he will have to run sub 3:28 to compete against Kerr, Cheruyiot and Nuguse. Hopefully Wightman will find his way to 3:28 as well.
Fair enough point, although it’s a little condescending to call them European B-elite. -One of them was 0.3 sec late to beat Kerr for the WC gold last year (got bronze) and two other’s pb’s very alike Kerr’s and Wightman’s…
European A-Elite consists of Jakob, Kerr, Wightman and Katir*. You can tell that everyone else is a level behind them.
In the US it would be Nuguse and Hocker and Kessler.