I looked over WA rankings, to remind myself who the contenders are (it's hard to mentally keep track of them all), and it looks tougher than I had in mind.
For one thing, I totally forgot that Markezich had just run 9:17 at NCAAs. That's rough.
I think Allie's probably better than Howard and Jolly.
But you have to think Constien, and Wayment, and Markezich (with that race last week) are probably well ahead of her.
Probably Mitchell, too.
Gear had that great 15 earlier in the spring, but hasn't looked all that great since then, and hasn't had a very impressive steeple race. Allie's probably got a shot to beat her.
Boreman I think she might get.
So I'm thinking there's two way ahead of her; two more probably substantially ahead;
and maybe two more that are probably in the same ballpark.
Let's say she ran a 9:18 (a big leap, but it seems plausible).
That probably won't catch the first two, has a decent shot to beat the last two (unless Gear shows something way closer to what she did last year), and might get close to the middle two.
(Is there anybody I'm forgetting?)
I'm pulling hard for her, and she's clearly on a great trajectory right now, but it's a long shot.
She'd have to pop a great performance, and probably hope that 2 or 3 of those gals don't have a very good day.
Fourth to 7th or so is probably a good shot; top three is gonna be tough.
What do you guys think?