Hobbs Kessler? Not impressed.

absurd wrote:

THIS.

Plus... he has stated outright that the focus of this winter is getting stronger not speed because that's where they think he's weakest. So he goes out and trains and then runs a fast 3k and huge PR.

So let's get this straight. Kid has fast PRs, he and his coach decide the best thing for his long term development is to improve strength. He then goes out, improves his strength, and runs a time that would place him at the top end of NCAA history if he had decided to do what all you "he has to be judged as a pro" morons would have had him do. A time that is a huge improvement for him.

But because he was probably sick and had a bad race in February, all the coaching, training and performances that are focused on the long-term potential of a teen athlete in a sport where most runners peak in their late-20s, is bad?

You are hearing yourselves, right?

New Hope wrote:

BigHKFanMichigander2.0 wrote:

1. Objectively, he has not been pro for 2 years (24 months). So you’re wrong there.

2. You clearly do not the understand the concepts of “forecasting” or “projection.” By your logic, the current state of affairs is all that matters in assessing talent. For example, a shoe company should give all their money to a 35 year old who’s run 3:59.9 instead of a 16 year old who’s run 4:00.0….why? Because the 35 year old is currently faster, and obviously that’s all that matters! I would stay away from the stock markets my friend, you will go broke quick.

He has been a pro for 2 years in the same way as he is “19”. You are comparing someone that has been a pro for two years to someone that was just a student athlete and admittedly more concerned with his classes.

The stock market isn’t given to go up. Some startups go big, most fail. You pretend like the only option is for this startup to be the next Google. Declaring it as such before it has gotten off the ground.

BigHKFanMichigander2.0 wrote:

New Hope wrote:

He has been a pro for 2 years in the same way as he is “19”. You are comparing someone that has been a pro for two years to someone that was just a student athlete and admittedly more concerned with his classes.

The stock market isn’t given to go up. Some startups go big, most fail. You pretend like the only option is for this startup to be the next Google. Declaring it as such before it has gotten off the ground.

Ok, my last response friend and then I promise I’m done with this thread.

1. Let’s call him 20 years old to satisfy your obsession (though he still has a full 12 months of being 20). He has better 800/1500/3k times as a “20” year old than 22 year old Fisher, and I would bet any other 22 year old American ever. Bosley is 22, and only has him beat in the 3k.

2. My main point about fitness and assessing performance, which people like you cannot seem to grasp, is that trends in results are what matter. There is nothing to suggest his fitness is “trending” downwards in any real sense. He has trended upward in the 800 and 3000.

3. In terms of the 1500/mile, yes he has not yet replicated the 3:34 performance. But he has run between 3:36-3:38 4 times before age 20. That is 5 more times under 3:39 than Fisher did by age 22, and that number is sure to grow. He has stabilized in that sub-3:40 level already, which is nothing to scoff at.

BigHKFanMichigander2.0 wrote:

New Hope wrote:

He has been a pro for 2 years in the same way as he is “19”. You are comparing someone that has been a pro for two years to someone that was just a student athlete and admittedly more concerned with his classes.

The stock market isn’t given to go up. Some startups go big, most fail. You pretend like the only option is for this startup to be the next Google. Declaring it as such before it has gotten off the ground.

Ok, my last response friend and then I promise I’m done with this thread.

1. Let’s call him 20 years old to satisfy your obsession (though he still has a full 12 months of being 20). He has better 800/1500/3k times as a “20” year old than 22 year old Fisher, and I would bet any other 22 year old American ever. Bosley is 22, and only has him beat in the 3k.

2. My main point about fitness and assessing performance, which people like you cannot seem to grasp, is that trends in results are what matter. There is nothing to suggest his fitness is “trending” downwards in any real sense. He has trended upward in the 800 and 3000.

3. In terms of the 1500/mile, yes he has not yet replicated the 3:34 performance. But he has run between 3:36-3:38 4 times before age 20. That is 5 more times under 3:39 than Fisher did by age 22, and that number is sure to grow. He has stabilized in that sub-3:40 level already, which is nothing to scoff at.

absurd wrote:

This is seriously one of the stupidest threads on a website that is a cesspool of hobby-jogging, jealous morons.

Hobbs is a generational talent who had an off-day. He also ran absurdly fast in the 3k recently, as others pointed out. He clearly is fit and fast, and that will show at some point.

Further, blaming a single bad race that he ran while sick on the coach is stupid, as is comparing Ron to Mike Smith. They're both great coaches with great track records. Get over yourself.

If, like stats don't lie, you're stuck on the idea that Hobbs should be a broke college kid at NAU, then you'd do well to remember that NAU is not the only place in the world that produces fast runners, Hobbs 1500 PR converts to faster than any of the NAU guys PRs, Hobbs is clearly developing the aerobic strength that will help him in the long run this year, plus Hobbs made the smart choice of making a solid living as a teenager.

king999 wrote:

BigHKFanMichigander wrote:

It really amazes me how supposed avid/non-casual runners who take the sport somewhat seriously still manage to misunderstand fitness so badly.

You cannot view one race in a vacuum and completely without context. A single race result does not define, absolutely, what kind of fitness one is in. It is not as simple as a 19-year old just ran a 4:05 mile, so he is a “4:05 guy.” The situation is a 19-year old just ran 4:05, a week after running 7:39, who has also run numerous sub-4’s and a 3:34 in the last 24 months (also a 1:46 800). What we are likely witnessing is a generational talent who is still struggling to handle, among other things: increased training loads, pressure, emotional highs/lows, and oh yeah…adult life. Big surprise there, a 19 year old is still figuring how to handle life…there’s 39 year olds that struggle with that.

Every real indication points to Kessler being on track to break numerous American Records in his career.

No offense to anyone else on here..but this by far the most accurate and measured view so far. I kind of know what the work looks like and during this every once in a while ..well? The bottom line is you have to do the work...or you cannot get to the next level..period.

stats dont lie wrote:

king999 wrote:

This is the most completely unfounded thought on here.First of all. Kessler was 18..he signed the most lucrative out of HS distance deal in history, there was NO NIL and would not be for another year in the NCAA...and no shoe company is going to ever ever pay what he got as an NIL. Secondly, according to some of you who never even ran in college and certainly not at this level, you would have him go to NAU , under a guy who has never trainined any top flight 1500/miler types. Thirdly Bosley ran 7:36.4 and Kessler ran 7:39.0...Bosley is 22 and 4 months..Kessler not yet 20. Whose future would you rather have.

Back to the "go to college Ron sucks" theme.

Who has trained more Olympians..Ron? or Mike Smith?

Fourthly..if that is a word..Most of you have no educated view or perspective on this whatsoever. I am fortunate to know a few expert coaches and former coaches..very fortunate. Four of them(not including Ron) when asked directly if Kessler should go Pro with Ron as his mentor..and all four said take that deal asap. As I have said ,step in a gopher hole training for Cross..and you never see a dime. By 28 he will be set up for life if he so chooses and invests wisely.

As for the other guys Ron has trained in the current group. Ferlic made an Olympic Team..Flanagan has Pr'ed at everything from mile to 1/2 Marathon and in between..and Beadlescomb PR at 5K.

Amazing , how in one week a 19 year old..goes from sky is the limit off a time(7:39.0) run twice better now by a collegian(7:36.4 and 7:38) and guys two years older when they ran it..to "it's all over Baby Blue".

In fairness, you are trying to compare someone who makes his money coaching college cross country who only recently started taking on pro athletes. Regardless, Smith has had more Olympic and World success recently. Rachel Schneider his wife qualified as well as Grijalva and GALEN RUPP on 2020. Nur and Grijalva made the 5k final at Worlds in 2022 and Beamish made it in the 5k. Mike Smith also coached BROOKE ANDERSEN in college, who is the World Championship gold medalist in the hammer throw from 2022 and made the Olympics in 2020.

Smith gets paid to produce 10k runners for cross country but his athletes have still run very well over the mile distance. Geordie Beamish was an NCAA champion at 1 mile. An educated person would have every reason to believe that Smith can coach Olympic level 1500m.

John Macardle wrote:

stats dont lie wrote:

In fairness, you are trying to compare someone who makes his money coaching college cross country who only recently started taking on pro athletes. Regardless, Smith has had more Olympic and World success recently. Rachel Schneider his wife qualified as well as Grijalva and GALEN RUPP on 2020. Nur and Grijalva made the 5k final at Worlds in 2022 and Beamish made it in the 5k. Mike Smith also coached BROOKE ANDERSEN in college, who is the World Championship gold medalist in the hammer throw from 2022 and made the Olympics in 2020.

Smith gets paid to produce 10k runners for cross country but his athletes have still run very well over the mile distance. Geordie Beamish was an NCAA champion at 1 mile. An educated person would have every reason to believe that Smith can coach Olympic level 1500m.

Sahlman hasn't progressed in his first year at NAU - is that cause for concern?

For me that answer is an easy "no", just as it is not concerning that Hobbs hasn't bettered his 3:34 yet despite having success in other distances since going pro.