I'm going to guess 0:00 as the official cutoff. I'll actually go one better: they'll open up registration to people who are near but not under the official BQ time. BQ +1:30 still gets you in.
I'm going to guess 0:00 as the official cutoff. I'll actually go one better: they'll open up registration to people who are near but not under the official BQ time. BQ +1:30 still gets you in.
colder and wiser wrote:
I'm going to guess 0:00 as the official cutoff. I'll actually go one better: they'll open up registration to people who are near but not under the official BQ time. BQ +1:30 still gets you in.
Pardon my ignorance, but is there any precedence for opening up to times beyond the listed qualifying?
Not to my knowledge. Would be shocked if that happened, but I'm sure BAA is hurting for money after 2020...
If they did anything, my guess is that they'd give people the :59 second grace period that they used to give. When I first qualified for the 2011 race, the qualifying standard for 18-34 was 3:10, but if you ran anything from 3:10:00 to 3:10:59, you were considered to have met the standard. I could see them doing that, but not actually changing qualifying standards post-hoc. Instead, they'd probably let more charity runners in. Or they'd just extend registration for another week.
That said, my guess is that the race will fill with qualifiers and there will still be some cutoff, but I don't have the faintest guess at what it might be. Wouldn't be surprised if it were one minute, and wouldn't be surprised if it was 9 minutes.
9 minutes feels like a statistical impossibility. Going from 74K to 55K with many of those double-counted. My guess is somewhere between 1 and 2 minutes. Maybe this is wishful thinking but I think demand might hit a temporary snag this year.
It is closed and we find out in Early December. Best of luck all
Good luck... can't wait for some hotels to open up.
what do u mean early december? the cutoff is usually announced the week after
Well, the BAA said early December. So. Yeah.
Yep just going off the website.
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Yep just going off the website.
My registration confirmation says early December, but I could've sworn I saw "later November" somewhere else. Two weeks was about how long it took last time.
That's wild. Wonder what the hold up is this year
I wish you would be correct, but I have a 2:15 buffer and I'm 99.8% sure I won't be getting in for my first Boston... :(
After meeting some members of running clubs who are signed up already they are telling me my -6min might not be enough. Reason: Many can pick from multiple good races and are excited to do another regular one in April. Most of them I talked to they believe it can be up to -9 min. They are using same cut off number like you posted as you highest cut off prediction. Not sure how they estimated this. At the end it's just guessing. But I will not be surprised when I would not get in. Good luck to everybody.
year-# runners-cutoff
2012 - 27,000 - 1:14
2013 - no cutoff?
2014 - 36,000 - 1:38
2015 - 30,000 - 1:02
2016 - 30,000 - 2:28
2017 - 30,000 - 2:09
2018 - 30,000 - 3:23
2019 - 30,000 - 4:52
2020 - 31,500 - 1:39 ** Qual times adjusted 5:00 faster
2021 - 20,000 - 7:47
2022 - 30,000
I predict the cutoff will be less than 2:00 and possibly no cutoff at all. With a field size 50% larger than 2021 the cut will drop dramatically. The mandatory vaccination will take some out and some lockdown lovers will not travel. The cut was larger than 3:00 only twice in eight years from 2012 to 2019 and the new standards immediately dropped it back to under 2:00. The two races in six months will keep some people who ran 2021 away (myself included). I would not be surprised at all if the cut is under 1:00 or even no cut.
cut will be small wrote:
I predict the cutoff will be less than 2:00 and possibly no cutoff at all. With a field size 50% larger than 2021 the cut will drop dramatically. The mandatory vaccination will take some out and some lockdown lovers will not travel. The cut was larger than 3:00 only twice in eight years from 2012 to 2019 and the new standards immediately dropped it back to under 2:00. The two races in six months will keep some people who ran 2021 away (myself included). I would not be surprised at all if the cut is under 1:00 or even no cut.
Agree with this. Plus a lot of us who ran it in October weren't ready to turn around and run it again in April.
Just to add to this:
2019 - 30,000 - 4:52 (50, 445 qualifiers)
2020 - 31,500 - 1:39 (46,333 qualifiers) / 3,161 didn't get in ** Qual times adjusted 5:00 faster
2021 - 20,000 - 7:47 (79,035 qualifiers) / 9k didn't get in
2022 - 30,000 (54,744 qualifying times)
The key thing to note is that 2022 is qualifying times, not qualified runners. How many runners have 2-3 qualifying times since the window is so large for this race is the question?
Interesting - where are you getting the 54,744 number? I don't see it on the BAA website or any of their social media channels...
amd222 wrote:
2021 - 20,000 - 7:47 (79,035 qualifiers) / 9k didn't get in
2022 - 30,000 (54,744 qualifying times)
The key thing to note is that 2022 is qualifying times, not qualified runners. How many runners have 2-3 qualifying times since the window is so large for this race is the question?
2021 note: 9K didn't get in but that was for 17,600 slots it's worth noting (charity number is ~2400 and remained consistent. There will be 10,000 more slots this year.
So of 79,035 qualifying times (I think there was a chance for double-counts here as well), 26,600+ applied. How many were scared off due to COVID/October start i don't know.
This year about 2/3 of the performances BUT I suspect some holdouts from last year will be back in. Still to me, I think some people will be drop out due to the vaxx requirement and running two Bostons in 6 months. I remain optimistic for myself at 3:08 under because to me it looks like 2020ish level of qualifiers, but softer demand.
https://boston.cbslocal.com/2021/03/15/boston-marathon-2021-field-size-20000-baa/#:~:text=We%20are%20committed%20to%20making,approximately%202%2C400%2C%20will%20not%20change.
So 2022, there will be 27,600 slots for those 54,744 qualifying times.
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