portsea57 wrote:
Well, how do we access all those performances. Well, going into the event, lots of people were predicting Mu would run 1min 54sec and win by two seconds. Well, she won by 0.6secs. Hodgkinson! Surely, she was the biggest surprise. A week ago, to suggest that she would come second and run under 1min 56sec would have been considered a very wild prediction. Reekie, Well, very bravely, she went for the win and almost got a medal. Raven , of course, didn't get involved up front but ran with that hope that she could pick off runners in the the finishing straight...and it worked. Great race.
Lots of people here make silly predictions that are not based in any degree of realism. Some people shoot from the hip with no degree of analysis. Others just make predictions based on their "what they would like to see". I'll give you three different examples that resonate with me:
Fraser-Pryce, Erryion Knighton and Christine Mboma.
Fraser - Pryce of Jamaica winning the 100M in 10.6 was bandied about.
I made a statement that this was not going to happen because Fraser Pryce didn't have the ability to run 10.6. And that ETH would repeat as champion. I made these, based on the following:
1. The alleged 10.63 that Fraser-Pryce ran in Jamaica was due to a malfunction clock that the true time was in the 10.8 range.
2. All of her races up to this point was 10.70. She is now 35 and unless she's another Gatlin she couldn't be running faster than when she was supposed to be in her prime.
3. Exactly three days before, she ran the alleged 10.63 she ran a race in Doha, where she ran 10.87. Jet lag does a number on the body that would have prohibited her running a faster time than she has ever run in her life - even at her optimum years.
4. I did a superimposing of that race on her other races.
5. The time of the 2nd place finisher in her alleged 10.63 race.
I then saw the finals of he Jamaica race where she beat ETH. Her time was what she has always run ie.10.7. But when I looked at ETH, I saw the smooth and flowing mechanics from Rio and a pretty darn quick time. I then asked around if she was healed from her achilles problems. I was told yes.I then saw the last race in Europe where ETH ran 10.7 beating Fraser-Pryce.
All of these added to one conclusion for me. ETH was getting back to her form where she dominated prior to her injury. She was going to win the 100M. The elimination round solidified what I believe would occur.
Erryion Knighton winning the 200M Final.
Knighton winning the 200M final is my what I would like to see. I do not have sufficient data to make a proper analysis of what he will run. So I make none except for it's what I would like to see happen.
Christine Mboma winning silver
No 17 year old female has the ability to run 48.5 in a 400M. Such a time is rarified air for female all seasoned 400M runners period. To have that sort of speed means your 200M is also very quick.
I saw the 400M 48.5 race and I watched her 22.67 race. I watched how she ran down Gabby Thomas in the prelim even though she was a mile behind. It was pretty obvious to me that no one could beat her except ETH.
People need to do better analysis to arrive at better judgement of races.