COLE MF HOCKER!!!!!!

Anyway, we can come back to this thread come Olympic 1500 final.and see how our predictions unfolded.

AP5000 wrote:

I have no idea how many of those 421 guys can close like that, but I am certain a lot of them can or close to it. I am certain Jakob I can do it or very close.

Also, this Olympic 1500 will be different. They saw that debacle last time and the top guys arent going to risk getting out kicked by a 335 guy for a gold medal. They will know exactly what each of their competitors are capable of and plan accordingly.

Saying this 1500m will be different is pure speculation and goes against the facts that literally no Olympic Final m history has gone faster than 3:32.

Of course it could, but you’re speculating just like everyone else is speculating about Hocker.

The race could be won in 3:28 with Hocker 10th. It could be a 3:34 race with Hocker 2nd. No one knows; we’re all guessing. Some guesses are probably more likely than others. This is why sports betting is a huge industry (but not in Track for some reason).

AP5000 wrote:

Anyway, we can come back to this thread come Olympic 1500 final.and see how our predictions unfolded.

Agreed. And my official prediction is I don’t think Hocker will medal unfortunately. But I sure hope he does!

You Americans should be proud of this young guy. He has both the speed and the endurance for this complex distance, and so has Centrowitz. Great runners.

And Jakob knows he has to run fast in the finals. The two brits, Kerr and Wightman, we know they can run fast. And so Oliver Hoare from Australia.

Jakob gets his first reality check on thursday on the mile. Amongst the runners who compete there is the Kenyan numer one, Charles Simotwo, so is McSweyn and Lewandowski.

This year Hocker is not quite ready for a medal in Tokyo, but you never know, you know. Lets speak after Bislett Games. Jakob is running for the European record, 3.46.32 by Steve Cram at Bislett in 1985, and the Stadium record - 3.46. 24, El Guerrouj in 2000.

That kick was unreal. Feel like if Centro goes from 600 out he wins because Cole was in such awful position but he probably had no idea & thought a well measured effort from 400 out would get it done.

Here to eat my crow.

2 months ago I said “Hocker is outstanding, but it will take the best race of his life to make the Olympic team. Let’s hold our horses”, and something like “Centro is the Olympic champ, and is on a different level”

Well the sum-b*tch did it!!! He ran his best race when it mattered and took down the champ!

BOTH of these guys look to be legitimate (gold) medal contenders in Tokyo. They have all the tools:

-ability to hang with a quick pace (unless it goes under 3:31, unlikely)

-ability to handle a sustained last 600

-ability to close like hot cakes the last 200

Centro’s advantage is supreme tactics. Hocker’s advantages are obvious: youth and that wicked close that may truly be the best in the world (I was wrong about that).

And Yared would have been right with those two with better tactics earlier on. SO PUMPED for this team!!!

Hocker won outright. In difficult fashion because he had to fight to get out of being boxed in late in the race. He then runs Centro down! And Centro had a running start. Despite the NCAA competition (and Champ) and all the qualifying heats. Hocker has proven that he is the best right now. And deserves to represent in Tokyo.

Hocker's medal hopes rest on Athletics Kenya continuing to be idiots. If they keep Cheruiyot off the team, then the race can go tactical and Hocker is in the mix. If Cheruiyot proves fitness in the next few Diamond League meets, then there's strong rumors that he will be given the discretionary place on the Olympic team. If so, then Hocker gets smoked by a guy who will front-run to sub-3:30. A bronze might be in play if Wightman or Kerr choose not to go with Cheruiyot and Ingebrigtsen.

I agree with all your points. If they both make the final (anything could happen in rounds, falls, etc.) and the final isn't faster than any Olympic Final ever (it's only 3:32 from the EPO era) they both have a legit shot at a medal. Hocker needs to improve his tactics a bit because the talent at that level is obviously much higher and he can't afford losing fractions of a second getting out of a box.

Also, thank you for saying the "W word" (wrong) which we rarely see on Letsrun. Americans should all be happy with the team being sent to Tokyo at this point. Maybe this website isn't as much of a cesspool as people think.

Yeah, seconded. Much respect for going out of your way to tell people you were wrong. You are a rare individual and the world needs more of this behavior.

I'm glad Hocker beat Centro, but I wouldn't assume he'll beat Centro in the Olympic final. Centro isn't race sharp yet and has a solid chance to time his peak perfectly. Hocker's been competing at a high level since indoors, so I imagine it'll be trickier for him. I still like his chances for a medal, but Centro and Jakob will be tough to beat.

Fastnbulbous wrote:

I'm glad Hocker beat Centro, but I wouldn't assume he'll beat Centro in the Olympic final. Centro isn't race sharp yet and has a solid chance to time his peak perfectly. Hocker's been competing at a high level since indoors, so I imagine it'll be trickier for him. I still like his chances for a medal, but Centro and Jakob will be tough to beat.

Now this is a reasonably written post. I'm sure AP5*** is stocking up on Hate 'n' Crunch™ cereal right now. Probably the 421 gram box.

NERunner0353 wrote:

That kick was unreal. Feel like if Centro goes from 600 out he wins because Cole was in such awful position but he probably had no idea & thought a well measured effort from 400 out would get it done.

but if he goes from 600, wouldn't the pack try go with, thus loosening up and giving Hocker more room to escape the box?

bhuhgg wrote:

Another Oregon dooosh who will flame out at the games. He won’t get out of the first round

How many of the 39 'Auto' qualifiers in the 1500 ran that last year and haven't touched it since? And how many of them only did it once barely, and typically aren't near it? Hocker is consistently able to close HARD to 3:35-3:38... Anyone who can run 3:35-3:38 closing in 52 seconds every time is going to make it to the semis... Really it's hard to believe he won't make the final, 3:35 closing in 52 multiple times this year, you'd think if the pace was a little hotter early on like 1:55 at 800 and 2:38 with a lap to go that he could still close in 55 and run 3:33 to make the final.

I was most impressed by how hocker was trapped on the rail for almost the entire race, tried unsuccessfully to move up, got shoved back, but didn't panic and go wide. Just held his fire, adjusted his strategy and waited for clear space.

Brilliant racing.

It looked to me like Centro felt he had it wrapped up and didn’t fully commit everything to his kick. What was his last 400? Hocker had the momentum when he pulled even and it was too late to accelerate. He just edged him out.

Thought Centro still looked plenty relaxed running through the tape.

letsbang wrote:

SleepingFireman wrote:

Ingebrigtsen and Kerr will eat Hocker's lunch. How the hell do you think a 3:35 guy is going to win the Olympics?!

Hocker closed his last 100 faster than mackloufi did to win the 2012 games in a 3:34 race. In a mid-3:30's olympic final with good positioning I think Hocker has a legit chance to medal if not win.

Let's put some more context in. Makh went with 300m to go and went INSANELY fast on the back stretch. Definitely 12 mid for that 100m stretch. He already had a sizable gap with 200m to go. He tied up the last 30m, but was already so far ahead. I think if it's a 3:34-3:35 race in Tokyo, which is fast but not time trial fast, someone will hammer with 300m to go while Hocker is in 7th-8th boxed in on the rail. Hocker can make up a lot in the last 100m, but he has to be in range.

j bomb wrote:

It looked to me like Centro felt he had it wrapped up and didn’t fully commit everything to his kick. What was his last 400? Hocker had the momentum when he pulled even and it was too late to accelerate. He just edged him out.

Same. Centro obviously didn't watch NCAA's. The splits were very similar. ~2:00 first 800m, 3:35 race, 52 last lap. He just didn't take Hocker seriously enough; he should've known how much ground Hocker can make up in the last 100m. I thought Centro was going to hammer from 600m out like he did in '16 trials which I think wins him this race.