Who's ready to predict the top 3 teams in each division boys and girls at State?
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Rar76 wrote:
How can we fill TR’s missing ratings for NCS?
i.e. Campolindo girls + Hanne Thomsen,
Granada boys + Trey Caldwell
They ran last Saturday on a very muddy rainy course, so results are useless.
Both schools have very high variance for runners 4,5. So each of them can surprise in both directions.
NCS is speed rated now.
Granada 168.2
De La Salle 165.4Granada was right about the level they were at Clovis, which was 16th in the championship race. Nice 1-6 pack, but not quite a top 10 team.
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WaitForMoreData wrote:
Tully's SRs for the SS finals has 14:00 as a speed rating of 188, exactly the same as Woodbridge, and that was the number I was expecting after looking over several runners who I thought were running all out and a similar level of performance. The times matched up well. Most of the top teams had very few season best performances, but some teams (Santa Barbara and Millikan) looked better in this race than all season.
I collected the average boys speed ratings (top 5 runners) across the different sections that were speed rated (just the section finals race, not season best scores), and came up with the following list combining the divisions (I only used Tully pre-calculated teams, so the SS ends at Newbury Park, even though there were plenty of other teams in the mid 160s):
1 Dana Hills (SS) 178.6
2 San Clemente (SS) 177.6
3 Great Oak (SS) 175.2
4 Trabuco Hills (SS) 174.6
5 Ventura (SS) 174.4
6 Clovis East (CS) 173.8
7 Santa Barbara (SS) 173.6
8 Beckman (SS) 173.2
9 Mira Costa (SS) 173
10 Oakdale (SJ) 172.2
11 Millikan (SS) 171.2
12 ML King (SS) 171
13 Crescenta Valley (SS) 170
14 Newbury Park (SS) 168.4
15 Buchanan (CS) 168
16 Westview (SD) 167.4
17 San Luis Obispo (CS) 166.2
18 Ponderosa (SJ) 164.2
19 Bellarmine College Prep (CCS) 163.6
20 Matilda Torres (CS) 163.6
21 Canyon Crest Academy (SD) 163.4
22 St. Ignatius College Prep (CCS) 162.6
23 Jesuit (SJ) 161.8I realize an argument is that the SS finals are much more competitive, and teams have a real incentive to run hard, where top teams in other sections don't. But...12 of top 14 teams were from the southern section. Including Millikan that **didn't even qualify for the state championships**! We will see how this holds up when matched up at the state champs, and I assume it won't be this extreme. Oakdale at #10 is a prime candidate to move up if their top 5 are healthy.
I am hoping that next year is different. I have high hopes for Buchanan and Jesuit to be NXN qualifying level teams. And the southern section this year is very senior heavy, and may not be as strong next year.
Aside from all that, it is still impressive that 11 teams in one sub section of a state had an average team SR of 170 or higher on the same day.
For the girls section championships, the top teams I could find:
Santiago Corona 131.2
JSerra 127.8
Buchanan 127.2
Ventura 125.8
Trabuco Hills 125
Cathedral Catholic 115
Campolindo 114.2
St Francis 111.8
Whitney 110.2
Del Norte 110.2
Los Altos 109.220 -
WaitForMoreData wrote:
WaitForMoreData wrote:
Tully's SRs for the SS finals has 14:00 as a speed rating of 188, exactly the same as Woodbridge, and that was the number I was expecting after looking over several runners who I thought were running all out and a similar level of performance. The times matched up well. Most of the top teams had very few season best performances, but some teams (Santa Barbara and Millikan) looked better in this race than all season.
I collected the average boys speed ratings (top 5 runners) across the different sections that were speed rated (just the section finals race, not season best scores), and came up with the following list combining the divisions (I only used Tully pre-calculated teams, so the SS ends at Newbury Park, even though there were plenty of other teams in the mid 160s):
1 Dana Hills (SS) 178.6
2 San Clemente (SS) 177.6
3 Great Oak (SS) 175.2
4 Trabuco Hills (SS) 174.6
5 Ventura (SS) 174.4
6 Clovis East (CS) 173.8
7 Santa Barbara (SS) 173.6
8 Beckman (SS) 173.2
9 Mira Costa (SS) 173
10 Oakdale (SJ) 172.2
11 Millikan (SS) 171.2
12 ML King (SS) 171
13 Crescenta Valley (SS) 170
14 Newbury Park (SS) 168.4
15 Buchanan (CS) 168
16 Westview (SD) 167.4
17 San Luis Obispo (CS) 166.2
18 Ponderosa (SJ) 164.2
19 Bellarmine College Prep (CCS) 163.6
20 Matilda Torres (CS) 163.6
21 Canyon Crest Academy (SD) 163.4
22 St. Ignatius College Prep (CCS) 162.6
23 Jesuit (SJ) 161.8I realize an argument is that the SS finals are much more competitive, and teams have a real incentive to run hard, where top teams in other sections don't. But...12 of top 14 teams were from the southern section. Including Millikan that **didn't even qualify for the state championships**! We will see how this holds up when matched up at the state champs, and I assume it won't be this extreme. Oakdale at #10 is a prime candidate to move up if their top 5 are healthy.
I am hoping that next year is different. I have high hopes for Buchanan and Jesuit to be NXN qualifying level teams. And the southern section this year is very senior heavy, and may not be as strong next year.
Aside from all that, it is still impressive that 11 teams in one sub section of a state had an average team SR of 170 or higher on the same day.
For the girls section championships, the top teams I could find:
Santiago Corona 131.2
JSerra 127.8
Buchanan 127.2
Ventura 125.8
Trabuco Hills 125
Cathedral Catholic 115
Campolindo 114.2
St Francis 111.8
Whitney 110.2
Del Norte 110.2
Los Altos 109.2Seems like Tully speed ratings are a bit slow for the NCS meet since it's not totally taking into account just how sloppy the course was by the time Campolindo and Montgomery raced. Looking at previous years it rained on the Hayward course, it looks like times tend to be very similar to what Woodward Park times are the following week. If that's the case then Campolindo and Montgomery should be really good at state.
Cathedral Catholic really improved a lot this year, maybe they give Campolindo a run at state or even beat them.
Granada boys are solid but probably not good enough to get a podium spot in DII.
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Cathedral cath recruits.
Jserra recruits.
California should double enrollment of these private schools for parity.
Southern section enrollment per division much higher vs other sections.
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It's embarrassing how little coverage the State meet is getting. All the big websites know it's on Saturday right?
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byucheats wrote:
Cathedral cath recruits.
Jserra recruits.
California should double enrollment of these private schools for parity.
Southern section enrollment per division much higher vs other sections.
Don't forget about the schools who coincidently get some fast transfers to beef up their teams.
Major respect to schools who don't seek outside help but rather work hard to develop what they have.
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Dont forget about.. wrote:
Don't forget about the schools who coincidently get some fast transfers to beef up their teams.
Major respect to schools who don't seek outside help but rather work hard to develop what they have.
I understand your point, but the disparity in coaching can be quite dramatic from one hs to the next. If you've got a college talent, but your hs coach/team can't get you there, but the team 10 miles down the road can, it's really hard to blame the kid for making a decision like that. At least, imo.
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byucheats wrote:
Cathedral cath recruits.
Jserra recruits.
California should double enrollment of these private schools for parity.
Southern section enrollment per division much higher vs other sections.
Maybe you can enlighten everyone in A) How you know (not assume) athletes were recruited and B) how you know if athletes and parents simply wanted to transfer out of their existing program(s) for whatever reason they chose? Please explain, what constitutes "recruitment"?
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Don’t feed the trolls
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If you know certain coaches and schools it's evident what these coaches do and skirt cif rules.
To even ask shows you probably don't know cif and how these private schools operate.
Give em their own state meet or regulations or double enrollment.
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byucheats wrote:
If you know certain coaches and schools it's evident what these coaches do and skirt cif rules.
To even ask shows you probably don't know cif and how these private schools operate.
Give em their own state meet or regulations or double enrollment.
I think you have just convinced the entire world you're right (note the sarcasm)....if you have the proof, report it.
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Trey Caldwell provides a useful measure for how slow NCS was this year.
In 2022, he ran 15:37 at De La Salle Invitational, and 15:25 at Crystal Springs invItational. He ran 14:59 at NCS, with good conditions.
In 2023, he ran 15:04 at De La Salle Invitational (33 sec faster vs 2022). He ran 14:55 at Crystal Springs Invitational (30 sec faster). He ran 15:08 at NCS (9 sec slower).
For his speed level, he was roughly 40 seconds slower than expected at NCS.
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I like the part where they group every private school in California together as doing the same thing.
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byucheats wrote:
Cathedral cath recruits.
Jserra recruits.
California should double enrollment of these private schools for parity.
Southern section enrollment per division much higher vs other sections.
Cathedral Catholic is really the only Catholic high school in San Diego county with a good athletic program. You could argue for St. Augustine but across all sports Cathedral is definitely better. All the north county parents who want to send their kids to Catholic school send their kids to Cathedral. I went to highschool in Carlsbad (near the 78) and I had neighbors who went to Cathedral (30 minute commute with no traffic). The absence of a Catholic high school further north definitely helps Cathedral.
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byucheats wrote:
Cathedral cath recruits.
Jserra recruits.
California should double enrollment of these private schools for parity.
Southern section enrollment per division much higher vs other sections.
Cathedral Catholic may recruit for football, but they don't recruit for XC/Track. Their team is just kids from the school. They have a great culture and work super hard and are blessed with a particularly good team these past few years.
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coachy wrote:
Who's ready to predict the top 3 teams in each division boys and girls at State?
Sure why not:
Boys
Div 1
1) San Clemente
2) Great Oak
3) Trabuco Hills
Div 2
1) Ventura
2) Santa Barbara
3) GranadaDiv 3
1) Dana Hills
2) Oakdale
3) Sage CreekDiv 4
1) St. Francis
2) JSerra Catholic
3) Foothill TechnologyDiv 5
1) Crystal Springs Uplands
2) Menlo
3) ViewpointGirls
Div 1
1) Buchanan
2) Santiago
3) Trabuco Hills
Div 2
1) Ventura
2) St. Francis
3) Los AltosDiv 3
1) Campolindo
2) Cathedral Catholic
3) Dana Hills
Div 4
1) JSerra Catholic
2) Oaks Christian
3) Palos Verdes
Div 5
1) Crystal Springs Uplands
2) Immanuel
3) San Francisco University40 -
The Idiot Marathoner wrote:
coachy wrote:
Who's ready to predict the top 3 teams in each division boys and girls at State?
Sure why not:
Boys
Div 1
1) San Clemente
2) Great Oak
3) Trabuco HillsDiv 2
1) Ventura
2) Santa Barbara
3) GranadaDiv 3
1) Dana Hills
2) Oakdale
3) Sage CreekDiv 4
1) St. Francis
2) JSerra Catholic
3) Foothill TechnologyDiv 5
1) Crystal Springs Uplands
2) Menlo
3) ViewpointGirls
Div 1
1) Buchanan
2) Santiago
3) Trabuco HillsDiv 2
1) Ventura
2) St. Francis
3) Los AltosDiv 3
1) Campolindo
2) Cathedral Catholic
3) Dana HillsDiv 4
1) JSerra Catholic
2) Oaks Christian
3) Palos VerdesDiv 5
1) Crystal Springs Uplands
2) Immanuel
3) San Francisco UniversityWhat site did you use to help you rank them?
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