Another run across America underway - is it legit? Boots currently on the ground

Hey WillC, Have you seen this 26 mile run from Goodge on May 30, 2021. His HR starts really high then 7 miles in it drops dramatically, even though his pace remains the same. What do you make of this?

strava.com

JPs Run 4 Nations Finale - William G.'s 26.7 mi run

William G. ran 26.7 mi on May 30, 2021.

Link:www.strava.com/activities/5382344214

Will C needs help crystallizing the major development from and center.
The major development is:
The extremely low heart rates Goodge is showing in the 2nd half of each days running are causing suspicion, as no other runner has displayed these unnatural values….until the following development. Will C. has now found the only other runner in Strava’s database that has shown the same suspicious pattern in their own previous transcon (same route). That runner? …Robbie Balenger, an ultra runner THAT IS PART OF WILL G’S CREW AND IS WITH HIM ON THIS TRANSCON RIGHT NOW.
The conclusion is, something is wrong when the only two people in Strava history with these strange, unnatural HR patterns are Will Goodge and his current crew member (Robbie Balenger).

I'd say it's a wee bit quirky, but the drop is actually perfectly aligned for the pace of the run itself. He's largely doing 11 minute miles on a one off marathon in 5:26 at an HR of 131. His heart rises perfectly as the run goes by to 127 for a 7:28k for the 41st K. The run is a world away from the trials of multidaying.

Those very early miles in the 160s and 170s are a tad nutz, and very high, sure. But this is a guy whose heart does tend to go very high, especially early doors. For 80% of the run he's perfect, not a blemish here.

It's a moderately cute find, but the only flaw here is a surprisingly high HR early doors. The complete opposite to what concerns me, the rest of the run is perfectly aligned for what he's done: an eye-wateringly slow plod.

This is incorrect. Many people show similar anomalies with HR data. As I pointed out earlier in this thread, Jonathan Walton's HR does this all of the time.

Do you think the HR is accurate for the first 6 miles?

This overblown language really doesn't do you any favours. A quick Google shows there are 95 million Strava users. Are you telling us you and Will C split them out between you and knocked out 40 million odd each?

Heart rate data is never going to meet the threshold for proof of anything.

This is LetsRun.

We find photos of people on bicycles. We find that people never appear in race photos when everyone else is photographed seven times or more. We put boots on the ground to observe and find that people aren't where they say they will be, when they should be there, and even find security camera footage that they aren't in when they should be.

I'm not defending this runner or his crew. I have no idea about them. I am defending what constitutes "evidence."

This heart rate stuff ain't it.

This is ONE athlete, not many. He has thousands of runs, I've clicked on 10 and they're all perfect, I did see one run where he said "monitor bust". I'm not talking of people whose equipment breaks and they denote it!

Clicked on his outstanding London and it's nigh on perfect, albeit with some stratospherically high HRs - but he is winning the M50. But his overall HR of 167 is precisely what one might expect, and yet you're just saying: "he's another Goodge". I'm looking for people performing at a very high level with overall HRs of 104 and 102, not 167!

I don't understand the fixation on the HR data.

If you're positive the guy's cheating get video proof.

You obviously didn't look very hard because Jonathan Walton has 100s of runs where his HR is in the 90s.

How about another weird HR from a different person:

I'm fairly sure you were trying to help WG by pointing out that run. However the reality is it demonstrates almost perfectly what happens with wrist based monitoring when the watch loses the HR - it goes ridiculously high for the given pace (often tracking cadence). Then it gets back on track, in this case almost certainly after he pauses or stops the watch (yet again a run with lots of extra elapsed time, does this guy ever run and not stop?). There follows an example of what WG's heart rate SHOULD be looking like for 11.30-12 min miles - ie NOT under 100 BPM and Certainly not that heart rate for miles a minute and a half a mile faster.

Thanks for the perfect example.

{Going Round In Circles}

Long time lurker, first time poster.

I'll start by saying I have no dog in this race. I think it's got to the point now where either outcome would be hilarious for those not involved... either WG is a massive cheat, or WC is an absolute nutter, or maybe both?

I have been aware of Goodge through social media for a while now, and have been following this closely for the past few weeks, ever since he called WC a "maggot" on his story.. which ironically led me to investigate a bit and find the FB & LR pages (which I wasn't aware of and had assumed the run was 100% legit)

I'd like to think I'm an ok runner / endurance athlete and have a fair bit of experience with endurance & multi day events - completing, crewing and coaching.

I agree the data does look suspect, especially the PATTERN, but I think we need to accept that this is going to continue, and also that no amount of further analysis is going to change anyone's opinion one way or the other - whether you cry "cheat" or "tech fail".

I think WC's point of "wrist monitors being accurate to within 1%" has been beaten to death, and anyone who has any experience of actually trying to get accurate HR data would know this isn't true. The thing I find funny though is I have never experienced a monitor reading CONSISTENTLY low (<110), that is the part that seems off to me.

Also the fact WG doesn't seem to be paying attention to this seems weird to me, as HR can tell you a lot of information when dealing with endurance, heat, hydration etc etc.

I actually watched his Instagram live a day or so ago where he took a few more shots at WC and also said something along the lines of "I don't give a F%^& about heartrate, I'm running across America". He also mentioned his "contact at Whoop" was going to compile all of the data for the whole thing at some point (I assume to publish it?).

A few other things that seem suspect to me:

• Generally he doesn't seem to be struggling in the slightest. Yes he is in control of what he is posting to the public, and maybe sponsors have some part in that - wanting it to look easy as it then promotes their product. I know what he's doing isn't crazy by elite standards, but to be breezing 2 Marathons a day, every single day, given his history & pedigree seems a little off to me.
• In most of the images & videos online he barely even seems to be sweating...
• The only times he has "struggled" seems to be the rainy days - which also seems a bit off as a few others have commented. The psychology to run across America doesn't seem to match with the psychology of wanting to walk because it's raining?
• The way they acted towards WC seemed strange, and their general lack of willingness to comply or help get to the bottom of the irregular data, followed by the video they posted to YouTube. But being a dickhead doesn't make you a cheat!
• Comparing this to another recent event that was similar - Nedd Brockman running across Australia: Seemed to have a similar level of social media hype, big crew, luxuries, on site physio, cameraman etc. I followed that daily and there were days nothing would get posted from the entire team, obviously as they were focussing on actually doing their jobs (All strava data was auto-uploaded daily and looked clean). He also reported a massive injury on Day 11 (ish), had some days he had to cut short (100km/day) target for various reasons" struggled sleeping, niggles, and other thing you would EXPECT from a challenge of such nature.
• Lastly, I saw another story he posted to IG a few days ago (I think the day of the London marathon) where he used the whoop app to show a video of him crossing 26.2 miles incorporating his live HR. He was running fast-ish with a (whoop) HR of 189bpm and was SEVERELY out of breath. Now yes, an easy explanation would be that he just sped up for a minute or so to finish the marathon and post about it, but that also seemed odd to me. I personally wouldn't care about that, never mind be wasting the energy to do so. I guess this links to the point made before about him doing a sprint finish on one of the earlier days.

None of the above is any proof he is cheating by any means, but they all just make my intuition question it.

As I said at the start - the data isn't going to change from their end, neither is their attitude or compliance... so the question now is - what can be done about it?

Failing another party going out and getting boots on the ground, perhaps without their knowledge, to actually catch them in whatever "act" they are doing (if indeed there is one), I see this just being a stalemate until the end, where inevitably he will get all the credit and that will be that.

Here's another. Chicago Marathon 2019. 104HR for a 2:28

I can keep going if you want.

Hi Will. Yes i'd considered pace, but crucially elevation gain also.

On the 4th June run which you say is clean as a whistle. The mile you refer to where he did 19:35, i would agree on the flat this would produce a low heart rate but the fact is he covers 736ft of elevation gain on a hill with an average gradient of 23% (this run is in the rugged welsh mountains, not on a flat tarmac road)! - that is no way reflective of a 100bpm HR effort. Also lets consider the total elapsed length of run and total elevation gain. He averages 1500ft of elevation gain per hour, and his average heart rate for the whole run is 113bpm. For a runner of his calibre this is no way possible at this HR.

Yes i appreciate this is about long runs but I do think its important for all the data including from short runs to be taken into consideration for a thorough analysis. Which brings me back to the 25th may run - you say its fine by you but only considering the total time and average heart rate for this run. Fact is hes doing 200s reps in 35seconds each but only hitting a max heart rate of 130bpm towards the last few reps. Again for a runner of his calibre these rep times would be at max effort, and as i'm sure you know from experience - on a 200s session these definitely do get you up to max HR by the end of the session (otherwise what would be the point in doing them).

I am not trying to help Goodge. I am trying to demonstrate that HR data is unreliable.

WillC wrote this and it is obviously not true.

But is it unreliable 90% of the time, at very specific events, by 2 different runners using up to 6 different watches, on 2 different continents, in precisely the same, highly unusual way?

That's my question, but everyone on here chants the same thing: HR monitors are sh*t.

a fine read, but to dismiss me as an absolute nutter for pointing out 4 years of consistent data irregularities, by two athletes at very very specific events is way harsh.

No-one on here disagrees the data is off. They're just saying tech fail. That doesn't make me a nutter for pointing it out. I'm just saying that 7,000k over 4 years with almost perfectly predictable fails is very very strange. Ie, on day ones, or when he races during a challenge, or when I send them a tough letter, his data is perfect.