"Pandemic of the unvaccinated" CONFIRMED

Lead Foil Hat XXXI wrote:

Why would you use a linear fit to deaths? It is not linear and you and Harambe drawing a line on a bar chart is not a linear fit; please, stop trying to sound smart. It is getting old.

Because the trend is, in the short term, well approximated by a line.

The R^2 for a linear fit of the last 11 years of deaths (2010-2019) is .9865

Sure, it's not -perfect- but the error is not going to be huge.

This predicts 2,925,599 deaths in 2020 which basically splits the 'average expected' and 'upper bound' (2.89 and 2.98 million, respectively) of the CDC's excess death modelling.

If anything, death rates have been trending down the last couple year, so this is an overestimate, but it's well within the noise.

In any case, an estimate of about 2.92 million deaths in 2020 seems very prudent which gives 428,000 excess deaths in 2020, no big difference from the reported number!

Also validates the CDC's modelling as making sense.

So yeah, a line is a fine estimator. The excess death threshold used by the CDC was perfectly valid. And lots of people died of COVID that we didn't expect to.

Not sure why we need to run these numbers AGAIN but you're welcome.

Death data from here:

And the CDC excess deaths file.

Monkeys Skyping wrote:

Lead Foil Hat XXXI wrote:

Why would you use a linear fit to deaths? It is not linear and you and Harambe drawing a line on a bar chart is not a linear fit; please, stop trying to sound smart. It is getting old.

Actually year over year growth in U.S. all-cause-deaths over the last decade was pretty much linear:

https://monkeystyping.neocities.org/usAllCauseDeathsByYear3SD.png

Bro, you condensed my paragraphs of rambling into a single graph. Cheers.

While we're at it

https://monkeystyping.neocities.org/usWeeklyAllCauseDeaths.png

This man is on FIRE

Harambe wrote:

This man is on FIRE

LOL no. You keep fearmongering but do you remember when last year you said these threads would die out as "COVID deniers" would be owned by you and disappear from the boards?

Guess what? There are increasingly more people realizing you are full of BS and that your fearmongering has caused many deaths.

You make a lot of noise with your different handles but the truth is starting to get louder than you.

Like I have told you before, it will take time, but in the end it will be clear for everyone to see that you are on the wrong side of history, that you are borderline criminal with all the death and suffering you and your ilk have caused, and are still causing.

And no, I am not angry at all, "bro" :)

It’s not necessarily Covid deniers but, rather, Covid response deniers. Cases up 300% underBidens forced experimental vaccinations and down in India w low vaccinations. These folks respond w a litany of data to justify why they inject themselves but overlook the obvious.

But but but Biden said he was gonna handle the virus differently then trump and it would all go away. Are you saying he lied!?

What I would say to Biden, and the Liberals in general, is that talk is cheap. Proof is in the pudding. Covid cases are way up under the Liberal mask and vaccinators. But these folks don’t like to look at obvious data, they like to dig and spin until they believe a different point is made. I like to keep it simple.

Fauci knows what this is and he lied. Now he has mostly Liberal Americans drinking his juice while cases skyrocket. India. No juice. Cases down.

2600 bro wrote:

Tuna Sandwich wrote:

It just shows how you call yourself a genius, you insult others, and you push your fearmongering discriminatory agenda, while based on wrong assumptions.

You are in a thread where you and others are spinning wildly to fearmonger the vaccines…

You are literally willing to sacrifice American lives to avoid admitting you were wrong. It’s downright hilarious.

There are a lot of things 2600 does not know, he makes that clear, the list includes the meaning of the word literally.

Noyankee wrote:

What I would say to Biden, and the Liberals in general, is that talk is cheap. Proof is in the pudding. Covid cases are way up under the Liberal mask and vaccinators. But these folks don’t like to look at obvious data, they like to dig and spin until they believe a different point is made. I like to keep it simple.

Fauci knows what this is and he lied. Now he has mostly Liberal Americans drinking his juice while cases skyrocket. India. No juice. Cases down.

Not where I live (NY). The 7 day average number of cases (as of yesterday) was less than half of what it was on March 28, 2021, and about a quarter of what it was on January 12, 2021. Cases are way down in NY, mostly due to people getting vaccinated.

Covid cases are way up only where vaccination rates are low, and where many people have basically stopped taking any precautions against the virus.

Many people in NY could be protected regardless of vaccination status due to Millions of infections that remained asymptomatic in Spring 2020.

Sure, if you would like to go against historical statistical theory and cherry pick a small group to bear the odds of India, then great. I’m finished with new math myself. Over 200 Million Americans vaccinated and cases up 300% over last years no vaccinations. That number falls in direct line with what is happening in India and Israel.

If you folks don’t wake up soon then you will let Fauci win while you lose.

439 wrote:

Harambe wrote:

This man is on FIRE

LOL no. You keep fearmongering but do you remember when last year you said these threads would die out as "COVID deniers" would be owned by you and disappear from the boards?

Guess what? There are increasingly more people realizing you are full of BS and that your fearmongering has caused many deaths.

You make a lot of noise with your different handles but the truth is starting to get louder than you.

Like I have told you before, it will take time, but in the end it will be clear for everyone to see that you are on the wrong side of history, that you are borderline criminal with all the death and suffering you and your ilk have caused, and are still causing.

And no, I am not angry at all, "bro" :)

This is untrue. I’ve brought all the deniers into this thread and am now battling them like Neo except even stronger.

It’s fun to examine the cognitive dissonance of “I won’t get vaccinated Bc Biden/the establishment” and “I know my decision is harming others and myself.” It turns out, for a select few zealots, not giving in to “the establishment” or whatever is worth sacrificing your livelihood and your community.

I know the madposters here aren’t actually too dumb to understand the vaccine efficacy data, they’ve just built their personality around being anti-vax (bad move) and now must commit.

Noyankee wrote:

Sure, if you would like to go against historical statistical theory and cherry pick a small group to bear the odds of India, then great. I’m finished with new math myself. Over 200 Million Americans vaccinated and cases up 300% over last years no vaccinations. That number falls in direct line with what is happening in India and Israel.

If you folks don’t wake up soon then you will let Fauci win while you lose.

Better testing. Less caution.

Gotta work those variables in or it’s obviously you’re falling victim to motivated reasoning. Go!

DanM wrote:

The Grim Reaper wrote:

Not where I live (NY). The 7 day average number of cases (as of yesterday) was less than half of what it was on March 28, 2021, and about a quarter of what it was on January 12, 2021. Cases are way down in NY, mostly due to people getting vaccinated.

Covid cases are way up only where vaccination rates are low, and where many people have basically stopped taking any precautions against the virus.

Many people in NY could be protected regardless of vaccination status due to Millions of infections that remained asymptomatic in Spring 2020.

Sure, and if my aunt had a d*ck, she'd be my uncle.

If there was any truth to what you are speculating, the number of cases in NY would not have peaked in January 2021.

WWRD wrote:

2600 bro wrote:

You are in a thread where you and others are spinning wildly to fearmonger the vaccines…

You are literally willing to sacrifice American lives to avoid admitting you were wrong. It’s downright hilarious.

There are a lot of things 2600 does not know, he makes that clear, the list includes the meaning of the word literally.

He is dishonest too. I bet USD $1,000 he can't find a single post where I have fearmongered the vaccines.

He is just a liar.

Harambe wrote:

Noyankee wrote:

Sure, if you would like to go against historical statistical theory and cherry pick a small group to bear the odds of India, then great. I’m finished with new math myself. Over 200 Million Americans vaccinated and cases up 300% over last years no vaccinations. That number falls in direct line with what is happening in India and Israel.

If you folks don’t wake up soon then you will let Fauci win while you lose.

Better testing. Less caution.

Gotta work those variables in or it’s obviously you’re falling victim to motivated reasoning. Go!

Yes, agreed. Better testing. who knows where the truth lies, other than Fauci lied, far as I can see. I object to the race to the front to get the vaccine over his word, and then discriminate and punish those who take caution.

Tuna Sandwich wrote:

He is dishonest too. I bet USD $1,000 he can't find a single post where I have fearmongered the vaccines.

He is just a liar.

Well we can put this to bed. Do you agree that the COVID vaccines are safe and very effective?

Noyankee wrote:

Yes, agreed. Better testing. who knows where the truth lies, other than Fauci lied, far as I can see. I object to the race to the front to get the vaccine over his word, and then discriminate and punish those who take caution.

What caution? The vaccine vs. COVID? If you're terrified of what spike proteins can do to you, you should be aware there are self-replicating, airborne, and mutating spike protein factories IN THE AIR RIGHT NOW!!

LOOK OUT!!