Down goes the Dow

Non-Running Finance/Jobs

Page 416 of 3,339

1 415 416 417 3,339

8 years ago 01/04/2016 12:16pm EST

re: Maserati

Much of this goes back to something a friend once said to me; he said:

"Maserati, it doesn't matter if you OWN or OWE a million dollars; you're still a millionaire, because you're in CONTROL of a million dollars."

This was back in 1988.

My response to him then was:

"Maybe, but I would rather be COLLECTING the interest on a million dollars than PAYING it."

Pretty glib response, but I will never forget the convo.

I know intimately how some of these guys think. It was scary in .com, it was scary in subprime, and it is scary today. Every now and then they gain the upper hand, because there is periodically a new crop of the incredulous who buy it . The incredulous buy in, get burned, and the whole cycle starts over again.

This time it is all the hapless 401k'ers and IRA'ers who will get burned, although I understand that actually not too many individuals in the USA actually have such market-based accounts. But, IMO there will be a crisis and reset, and once again I will have been a bit early. That belies my financially conservative nature, I guess.

8 years ago 01/04/2016 12:17pm EST

re: agip

agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
But polemicists are on both sides of the argument. Today in the media the number of analysts trumpeting the virtues of the market outnumbers those on the other side. The industry of stock ownership has far more to gain from not being cautious.
Igy
true
I don't trust many wall street analysts either

They're all just talking their book, same as it ever was...only now, they do a really bad job of acting, and are incredibly transparent.

8 years ago 01/04/2016 12:45pm EST

re: Maserati

agip and Maserati,

I suppose there are plenty of weasels that are lying about what they really believe. I think it is more human nature to lean toward the positive and discount the negative until things get bad. At that point fear and irrationality sets in.

You can find a host of stocks that on any valuation basis are just a poor investment, and I am not just talking about FANG. Take MCD for example, trades at a 25 PE, a serial stock buyback participant. Why, other than momentum would you invest in this mature company? Sure there is the 3% dividend, but the company has been borrowing to support that as well.

At this point there is far more greed than fear in this market.

Igy

8 years ago 01/04/2016 1:56pm EST

re: Ghost of Igloi

"economists don't forecast because they know, they forecast because they are asked."

-JK Galbraith

8 years ago 01/04/2016 2:04pm EST

re: agip

the dismal science....

8 years ago 01/04/2016 2:58pm EST

re: Ghost of Igloi

3:30 Ramp Capital saves the close.....

8 years ago 01/04/2016 3:12pm EST

re: Ghost of Igloi

A rare BUY INTO THE CLOSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

the technicians will love that little thing

8 years ago 01/04/2016 3:32pm EST

re: agip

Internet reports are that Q1 CAD shorts are oversold.

Currencies, like I said. People must be reading the letsrun board :^)

8 years ago 01/04/2016 6:12pm EST

re: Maserati

If it's on the Internet, it must be true.

8 years ago 01/04/2016 7:29pm EST

re: agip

agip,

The real reason the Dow gained 150 points in the last thirty minutes:

http://www.330ramp.com/home/

The significance is the same as it has been, institutions churning.

Igy

8 years ago 01/05/2016 4:12am EST

re: Ghost of Igloi

Ghost of Igloi wrote:
coach d,
OK, but Warren Buffett diesn't even sell his losers, he still has IBM.
...
Best wishes for your trading in 2016, I will stick to my silly valuation models.
Igy

Igy,

I'm curious - what leads you to declare IBM one of Warren's "losers"?

8 years ago 01/05/2016 5:37am EST

re: Uncle Redbox

Uncle,

Perhaps he sold at year end, but here is an article from November 2015:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2015/11/08/5-reasons-warren-buffett-should-take-his-losses-on-ibm/

Igy

8 years ago 01/05/2016 9:07am EST

re: Ghost of Igloi

Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
You are probably one person that can appreciate this story. I started with Dean Witter in 1996 after my coaching career. You start with zero clients and build your book. At the time I was driving a 1981 VW Diesel pick-up. I recall this story, I went to see a high net worth prospect, parked on the street a tad out of view. Had a successful meeting, and afterwards I could not get the truck started. I tried numerous times to push and jump with the clutch to no avail. I finally embarrassed went to a client's neighhbor to call my wife to rope tow me home.
There is nothing tougher than trying to build a book in this business. It is a good thing I had the mental toughness of a distance runner or maturity of a 46 year old, without it I would never had made it.
Igy

I do appreciate that story - those first years are so full of triumph and failure.

8 years ago 01/05/2016 9:51am EST

re: agip

agip,

I went to one client's house and their German Shepherd took a crap in the corner, and we all acted like it was a normal thing. Strange yet funny how some people live.

Igy

8 years ago 01/05/2016 1:42pm EST

re: Ghost of Igloi

So we are still in a moderate correction with everything but big caps.

Small caps are down around 13%

midcaps are down around 11%

large caps are only down 6%

megacaps are only down around 5%

either bearish or a buying op - you decide.

lack of breadth is usually not good, I believe

8 years ago 01/05/2016 1:52pm EST

re: agip

at some point people will come to the realization things are deteriorating and not accelerating....

like the 18:00 5k guy that hit his first mile in 5:30...too late now dude.....

Igy

8 years ago 01/05/2016 1:55pm EST

re: Ghost of Igloi

amazing fact -

there are fewer people working for the government now than there were in 2010.

credit republican governors, credit obama, whatever...but that is the great secret of the post-crisis economy. Much of the 'disappearing middle class' is because of fewer government jobs.

The private sector has been hiring just fine.

8 years ago 01/05/2016 2:07pm EST

re: agip

California better pay attention and cut some more or they will go the way of Puerto Rico. California has been buoyed by Silicon Valley and they need to prepare for the next downturn.

Igy

8 years ago 01/05/2016 2:54pm EST

re: Ghost of Igloi

Igy,

I'm looking at the new guide to the markets and it makes clear that there are positive flows into "Funds and ETFs" while there is negative flow from "funds"

point is that the hussman piece you posted was clearly talking about just traditional mutual funds. and yes, money is flowing out of those. But that money and a whole lot more, has been going into ETFs.

http://image.gim.jpmorgan.com/lib/fe92137277640d7f72/m/1/jp-littlebook.pdf?email_campaign=106&email_job=3165&email_contact=100687550939700&utm_source=clients&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=mi_publication_gtm_1q2016&memid=7220927&e=ZZ&t=604&f=&utm_content=button_gtmdownload

and as an aside - that's the problem with looking at polemicists - they aren't interested in the truth, they are just looking to make their points with the most force possible.

8 years ago 01/05/2016 3:25pm EST

re: agip

agip,

That was not Hussman but Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge and he was using Bank of American-Merrill Lynch data. I am ok either way. Here is the original article:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-30/next-time-your-financial-advisor-tells-you-buy-stocks-show-them-chart

As I said in an earlier post, I suppose there was a good amount of swaps from growth mutual funds to growth ETFs to avoid 8-12% capital gains distributions.

Igy

Page 416 of 3,339

1 415 416 417 3,339

Next Last

Reply Replying to

Username

Password

Leave the password field blank to post anonymously.

Post Preview

By posting you acknowledge that you have read and abide by our Terms and Conditions.

Remember me on this device.

Down goes the Dow

Hot Now

Of General Interest

This thread has already been deleted.

You have been subscribed.

Down goes the Dow

Jump To A Page

Follow Ghost of Igloi

Block Ghost of Igloi

Follow agip

Block agip

Follow Ghost of Igloi

Block Ghost of Igloi

Follow Ghost of Igloi

Block Ghost of Igloi

Follow agip

Block agip

Follow Ghost of Igloi

Block Ghost of Igloi

Follow Ghost of Igloi

Block Ghost of Igloi

Follow agip

Block agip

Follow Ghost of Igloi

Block Ghost of Igloi

Follow agip

Block agip

Follow Ghost of Igloi

Block Ghost of Igloi

Follow agip

Block agip

Follow Ghost of Igloi

Block Ghost of Igloi

Follow agip

Block agip

Follow Ghost of Igloi

Block Ghost of Igloi

Jump To A Page

Hot Now

Of General Interest

This thread has already been deleted.

Reply Replying to

You have been subscribed.