Please read my last post. Thank you.
Please read my last post. Thank you.
Hardest year in 78 to make money: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/30/2015-was-the-hardest-year-to-make-money-in-78-years.html
I'll play...
Dow 2016
Close: 17425
High: 18351
Low: 15370
No typos.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Hardest year in 78 to make money:
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/30/2015-was-the-hardest-year-to-make-money-in-78-years.html
Thanks for the advice.
"But despite lackluster gains in stocks, Dennis Davitt of Harvest Volatility Advisors recommends sticking with the relative outperformer.
Out of all major asset classes, "we feel that's where the opportunity's going to be," he said Wednesday on "Power Lunch.""
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Hardest year in 78 to make money:
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/30/2015-was-the-hardest-year-to-make-money-in-78-years.html
it was a worse year than it seems by the numbers.
The Morningstar moderate allocation category was down 1.96% despite "stocks" being up.
http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/Just so many potholes - like energy, commodites, emerging markets and value stocks. Value was down 4-6% - ouch.
But as Coach D has pointed out, a bad year in stocks is usually a good time to buy - the next year is often very good.
POTO,
Yes, and so you should load up on the FANG stocks, the relative outperformer. I thought you would perceive that as good advice.
Igy
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Hardest year in 78 to make money:
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/30/2015-was-the-hardest-year-to-make-money-in-78-years.htmlBut as Coach D has pointed out, a bad year in stocks is usually a good time to buy - the next year is often very good.
And that's why I see the market much stronger than other people here. I see employment strengthening significantly (maybe the Republicans' worst nightmare) and the economy also strengthening (and that's in addition to some easy eps comparisons due to oil prices):
http://projects.wsj.com/econforecast/#ind=gdp&r=20So I'm going to say 21500, which is about 25% up from 2015 close, which is what the numbers seem to imply. I don't put any faith in this kind of thing so I'm not guessing at highs or lows.
Another reason why a big move is coming:
AAII sentiment 12/30/2015
Bulls: 25.1
Bears: 23.6
Neutral: 51.3
Everything seems to me to be wound up like a spring
Other thoughts on a coiled spring:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-30/coiled-spring-stock-market-likely-disappoint-2016
Igy
coach d wrote:
agip wrote:But as Coach D has pointed out, a bad year in stocks is usually a good time to buy - the next year is often very good.
And that's why I see the market much stronger than other people here. I see employment strengthening significantly (maybe the Republicans' worst nightmare) and the economy also strengthening (and that's in addition to some easy eps comparisons due to oil prices):
http://projects.wsj.com/econforecast/#ind=gdp&r=20So I'm going to say 21500, which is about 25% up from 2015 close, which is what the numbers seem to imply. I don't put any faith in this kind of thing so I'm not guessing at highs or lows.
interesting fact about high employment - as Igy has pointed out, it is a very lagging indicator - I read once that on average, the country is in recession 10-18 months after hitting peak employment.
That's actually my main worry - that this is as good as it gets and companies have already done all the hiring they are going to do.
agip,
In Boise we have more construction in the downtown than we have in my twenty years as a resident. It all seems a shell game driven by low interest rates rather than demand. My interpretation is that it is stealing demand from the future. Same can be said of national auto sales.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
In Boise we have more construction in the downtown than we have in my twenty years as a resident. It all seems a shell game driven by low interest rates rather than demand. My interpretation is that it is stealing demand from the future. Same can be said of national auto sales.
Igy
I don't know anytihng about Boise real estate, but my understanding of high car sales is that it is actually pent up demand - the average age of a car in the US is extraordinarily high - something like 12 years. Which would suggest that the high car sales are somewhat healthy and sustainable.
coach d,
I am the only one in my office with a negative view on the market. Barron's had their Wall Street prediction piece a few weeks ago, zero Bears.
In regards to institutions, hedge funds and retail positioning here is some data that conflicts with yours:
Igy
agip,
I am a late adapter. I bought a new car two weeks ago. A good reason to short the sector.
Igy
coach d,
I wonder what those economist think about Chicago PMI down to the lowest level since 2009? This is one of the reasons the market sold off Friday.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chicago-pmi-plummets-to-429-lowest-since-2009-2015-12-31
Igy
The market was closed on Friday.
POTO,
Yes, Chicago PMI and the market drop was Thusday.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
coach d,
I am the only one in my office with a negative view on the market. Barron's had their Wall Street prediction piece a few weeks ago, zero Bears.
In regards to institutions, hedge funds and retail positioning here is some data that conflicts with yours:
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/mom-and-pop-are-the-greater-fools-take-a-gander-at-the-chart-which-proves-it/Igy
hmmmm
the chart says 'mutual funds'
I wonder if it is measuring ETFs at all
I could easily see billions flowing out of traditional mutual funds and into ETFs. Maybe that is what the chart here is showing.
for example, this data shows $201 billion has 'flowed in' to etfs...Not clear if that is net or gross, but the story has been for years money flowing out of mutual funds into ETFs
http://www.etf.com/sections/monthly-etf-flows/us-equity-etfs-dominate-flows-nov
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
I am a late adapter. I bought a new car two weeks ago. A good reason to short the sector.
Igy
hah
congratulations - a new car is always such a festive event.
I'm 48 and I've only bought two cars. One new, the other used.
I now hvae a 10 year old anonymous little four door, beaten down pretty badly.
When I get rich and have a house in the country I'm going to buy all the little cars I've wanted since I was a kid - Fiat X1/9, Fiat Spyder, Alfa Spyder, Mazda Miata,...