Opps, last day of the year not so good....
Opps, last day of the year not so good....
S+P high in 2000 occurred on 3/24/00 -- 1,552.87.
S+P 500 as of now 2,043.94
Increase over a 15.75 year period is 31.62% 0r 1.77% per year nominal.
Adjusted for inflation @ 0%.
For 15.75 years with a major downturn not unlikely in the not too distant future.
Kind of a "meh" year. Dow down 2%, S&P down less than 1%, but NASDAQ up nearly 6%. With dividends, I'm guessing they all finished in the black. Not too bad given all the pessimism around here.
agip wrote:
On the other hand, Vanguard's oldest index fund, the SP500 index, was started in 1976 and it has returned an utterly awesome 10.91% per year since inception.
Good lord. 39 years.
If I can just capture that kind of return for my clients. Or even 80% of that return...they'll be happy.
Apples and oranges given the high inflation in the late 70s thru mid 80s of so.
You could get more than 10% on a money market account in the early 1980s.
Officially annual inflation since 1976 has been@ 3.7%. And we all know that inflation on things we actually need and buy (education, health, food, transport, etc.) has been a lot higher.
Helloooooo? wrote:
Report this Guy wrote:Holy Crap.
This guy is quite obsessed with hurt butts.
What's with that?
He mentioned it once. So did you.
Once in that particular comment. You complete moron.
Hi, K5. You seem especially sensitive to my "butt hurt" comment. I think we know why.
Happy New Year.
K5 detector wrote:
Hi, K5. You seem especially sensitive to my "butt hurt" comment. I think we know why.
Happy New Year.
There's twice in one day.
Instead of bragging after the fact about how well you all do in the market, why don't we make a prediction about 2016?
Dow closes 2015 at 17,425.
Where will it be at on the close of 2016?
What will be its high in 2016? It's low?
Real,
OK, I will start it off:
Close 10,900
High: 18,200
Low: 8,900
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Real,
OK, I will start it off:
Close 10,900
High: 18,200
Low: 8,900
Igy
Hmm.
More cautious than I am.
Dow low in 2016 will be 11,800.
Close at 11,800.
High 17,900.
What about agip, flagpole, and all the other experts?
Now,
Of course you know what an EXPERT is?
A former PERT.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Now,
Of course you know what an EXPERT is?
A former PERT.
Igy
Program Evaluation Review Technique?
Do you think agip, flagpole, Maserati et al will avoid actually making any predictions? They seem to be more into the vague and fuzzy than hard numbers.
correct, I am all for vague and fuzzy.
but since this is a game
I'll say
Dow high 19,100
Dow low 16,800
Dow finish 17,900
(my thinking is that my gut tells me that the market will be down 10-15% this year, but my gut is almost always wrong. So I'm going somewhat positive, playing myself as a contrary indicator)
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Real,
OK, I will start it off:
Close 10,900
High: 18,200
Low: 8,900
Igy
that's hardcore Igy.
Now,
PERT, funny.
Hopefully we can get some participation here. There are some critics out there that never offer their own opinion.
In my estimate I went back to the last really serious correction during the first Greek debt crisis, that was October 2011. That month the low was 10.800 or so. If one gives some balanced judgement to the following four plus years nothing has changed much but trillions of Dollar/Euro/Yen of Central Bank QE.
That said, my estimate is a conservative prediction of how bad it could get.
Igy
agip,
It does sound shocking doesn't it?
The worst case scenario would be a grind down over a period of years. A flush out of the speculation over a period of months would be preferred.
We have gotten what we wanted for nearly seven years. Being Biblical, which I am not, lean years lie ahead.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
It does sound shocking doesn't it?
The worst case scenario would be a grind down over a period of years. A flush out of the speculation over a period of months would be preferred.
We have gotten what we wanted for nearly seven years. Being Biblical, which I am not, lean years lie ahead.
Igy
there is no "justice" in investing. We actually don't have to pay profits back.
agip,
But the gods of investing may decree: seven years feast followed by seven years famine (apologies to Genesis 41:54).
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Real,
OK, I will start it off:
Close 10,900
High: 18,200
Low: 8,900
Igy
Serious replies only, please. Trolls not welcome.
Real,
Here is another serious reply, a great article on AMZN's valuation from David Stockman:
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-next-big-short-jeff-bezos-brobdingnagian-bubble/
Igy