Down goes the Dow

Maserati wrote:

Say wha? wrote:

Wall St is bullish? Sure some analysts are, but there are plenty of bears out there too.

And yet, they continue to pay percentage fees to their absurd "advisors". I admit I do know some advisors, and personally they can make great friends, but I would never, ever pay them a percentage of portfolio as a fee for their advice. People I know have a LOT of money, and they pay absolutely gigantic fees. Years like this one, those fees all of a sudden become noticeable.

.

as one of those advisors who are paid as a percent of a portfolio - I'll say this.

I tell clients this: Managing a portfoio is like changing your own oil. Sure you can do it - it's not very hard. But people know they won't learn how, then climb under the car and do it every 6months or whatever. They have other things to do than change their oil.

And the average age of my clients is in the 70s - these people dont' want to worry about the price of this or that - they want to live a little and leave the worry to someone else. Like me.

Without me, most of them would just leave their money in cash. So can I provide 0.8% above the return of cash. Of course I can. I'm no genius investor but just getting a market return using etfs means my clients will beat probably 95% of other investors.

Maserati wrote:

Noticeably absent has been that windbag Flagpole, who is falling further behind by the day. He would of course say that the vast majority of years are "up" years, and that he is all-too-willing to absorb the flat markets of 2015. That's why I don't have to work and he still does, at the same age.

Ha!

First of all, I have enough to retire today (but I wouldn't pull the trigger until May when my house will finally be paid off; but I COULD).

Second of all, as much as I don't love the work I do, I do get SOME satisfaction from it, and I'm my own boss setting my own hours and taking on or turning away new business at my whim, so for now I will keep doing it.

Thirdly, you are right...I am VERY willing to "absorb" a flat market. The DOW is down over 3% so far this year, and I am UP just 1.68% as of close of business yesterday. But, even if this ends as a down year for me, I really could not care less. I have invested a decent amount of money this year that will just blow up later when the market has a big year (and it will).

Finally, I don't invest in the way that I do to compete with anyone, brother. You like to take more risks, and so good for you. I like a very hands-off approach (as I DO have a business to run) and I am confident in the historical average of not necessarily the amount of return but the percentage of years that will be up, and that is still at about 73%.

At this point in my investing, I do not even need a gain ever again. The amount each year now (and I will retire in about 10 years - probably at age 60) that I invest coupled with Social Security even if I take it early at age 62, is more than enough to cover one year of expenses (including entertainment) in retirement...and that doesn't even count touching my previously invested money with all the returns, so I could live on what I invest between now and age 60 all the way up to age 70 with no problem while my invested pile just continues to grow (though I won't do it that way). So, good for you if you have done better than that. I have been told since I started investing in 1989 that the stock market was not a place to be. I have been told that here time and time again. I will lose my shirt or I won't make enough to retire on, etc. All BS.

So, anyway, good for you Maserati. You are the champ.

I am indeed the champ. I constantly make money and more of it than anyone else here. You are not necessarily a bad investor, just an amateur. That's okay for someone if your social status. On the other hand, I dwell at a different level socially, financially, and intelligently.

Please continue to read my or offerings here with an open mind. There is much to learn from me and I am willing to help the little people.

The government likes to fudge their numbers, but you can be sure mine are 100% accurate. I don't need to lie.

agip,

No real disagreement on anything you said. I think the markets are extremely overvalued and you think not. That is all.

Merry Christmas, and best wishes for a fast indoor season.

Igy

Maserati wrote:

I am indeed the champ. I constantly make money and more of it than anyone else here. You are not necessarily a bad investor, just an amateur. That's okay for someone if your social status. On the other hand, I dwell at a different level socially, financially, and intelligently.

Please continue to read my or offerings here with an open mind. There is much to learn from me and I am willing to help the little people.

The government likes to fudge their numbers, but you can be sure mine are 100% accurate. I don't need to lie.

Dude, nice troll post (I mean seriously, you KNOW that you make more money than anyone here, and you try to make me mad (no chance, brother -- I just laugh!) by calling into question my social status and then you say that you are at a "different level socially, financially, and intelligently [sic]" - you are clearly a troll.

Here are the problems:

1) You wrote "if" instead of "in".

2) You wrote "intelligently" when you should have written "intellectually".

3) You wrote "or" when you should have written "other".

4) You left out a comma after "me" in your second paragraph.

If, even as a troll, if you are going to go on about how smart you are, you'd better use correct grammar and the right words when you do so.

So, to be clear, I DO find you hilarious. I do NOT believe anything you say about how much money you make in the stock market. I do NOT care though if you actually do or not, and even though you are a clown enough to make me laugh, you aren't THAT funny as to make me pay attention beyond this post (at least for now...I may comment way down the line later if I feel so inclined), so feel free to respond about how I am below you socially and "intelligently" (ha!) and how I am one of the little people if you like. I will not respond because I am no longer entertained, and I could not care less what you say about me or my investing methods.

Cheers!

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

No real disagreement on anything you said. I think the markets are extremely overvalued and you think not. That is all.

Merry Christmas, and best wishes for a fast indoor season.

Igy

Cheers, Igy - best wishes to you and your family and I hope you are able to get out and enjoy the winter season.

So far so good on the track season - I'm getting my hopes up. Which could be a mistake, we'll see. I need to hold myself back sometimes.

Flagpole, you ARE an idiot in some ways.

That last post wasn't me, you got trolled.

Your willingness to respond, and your actual response, belie your insecurity. I have never claimed that I make great money on the stock market--what I have claimed is that I have avoided the major down events, and participated in the major up events, the last one being the 30+% year. In fact, most of my posts have described that in the past 2 years I have been handily beating the markets, while not being in them.

Your demonstrated need to invent fantasies to buttress your preferred narrative is telling. I have gone from disappointment in you, to sorrow for you. You know that saying that goes something like "Good times make friends; bad times bind them."? Your thinking belongs to another era. My advice to you would be to never retire, to keep that client list alive. That is what I have done, now being able to cherry-pick only those assignments that I wish to do, when I choose to accept a task that is in the service of another. Which is, now, very rare.

I am actually currently in the position in which you hope to be some day--living where and how I wish, buffing up my various properties according to my wife's design wishes, working out consistently, and now wishing that those around me would do at least as well as I have done. I'm OK, it's not me that I'm concerned about, it's those close to me, and those who mean something to me.

My fear for you is that you will incur a clawback in SS, increasing taxes (especially CG), and a capital levy. Like others have told me, you always need more than you think you will, and my fear for you is that you will need a LOT more, because you have ceded a good measure of control of your own situation to "the system", be it the markets, the financial system, etc.

I have found that people who speak with your seemingly absolute confidence and certitude are the ones who get burned the worst, especially psychologically. All I can say is better they take it out of you, than out of me. I am not so foolhardy and self-referential as to be so confident, so I am instead adaptable. You would do well to think about it, and to maintain your business contacts.

Lastly, the fact that you couldn't care less what I think is at least as much a reflection on you as it is on me, and probably more so.

Good luck, mein fuehrer.

Sorry, I meant to write "Good luck, Neville.", but various associated characters entered my mind.

Since, according to you, the last post by "Maserati" was a troll (and not you), I will respond (for I am once again slightly entertained).

1) Do note that I SAID whoever it was was trolling - had to be. So, verified that I was right.

2) Perhaps you should register your name so that you can't be imitated so easily. Definitely no way for anyone to know.

3) Since I responded to a troll post and then you respond back to me as if I were responding to something YOU said...well, that's odd. If you didn't make that post (and I will believe you there), then why get mad and defensive about something I said to THAT person? Weird.

4) Dude, I have no insecurity. That is bogus. Is the fact that you responded to me proof of YOUR insecurity? Like I said, good for you that you have done as well as you say. I do not keep score and only want to make as much as I need (and trust me, brother, I have much more than all the experts say I need even at this point, and I have made sure to do so so that my reliance on Social Security is nil). As of May I will also be 100% debt free including the house, and that is also part of protecting myself against a market crash, eliminating as much earmarked income as possible so that I can weather a bad financial storm.

5) My thinking belongs to another era? If by that you mean to a time when people saved (in my case invest) and don't spend every penny they have, then yes, you are right. For you to criticize my saving and investing is really odd. Statistically, I am well toward the top of invested money for people my age (or any age actually) and am well ahead of the retirement game when all studies point to the vast majority of people not being financially ready. I'm already there and still plan to work for another 10 years, during which time I will not only add to the pile, but it will grow beyond what is necessary.

6) While you have a fear for me, I don't involve myself in fears. I simply plan so that there is an infinitesimal chance of financial failure. A "clawback" in Social Security? Taxes? Dude, I will not NEED Social Security. Anything I get from that will be gravy. And taxes? At a minimum when I retire, I will no longer be investing the large portion of my income that I do, I won't have 4 people living in my house (one is in college now, but she is home part of the year), we will move to an area of the country that has smaller property taxes (plenty of places for that), and I will be taxed at a different (smaller rate). Would take a REPUBLICAN in the White House to increase taxes enough to dent all that savings I will have.

7) Who says I'm not adaptable? While I do have a decent pile today, if the market tanked (and I mean REALLY tanked...down to Dow of 3000 or something like that) then I might have to work a tad longer, at least part-time. Anything is possible...but you have to plan the best you can to ward against bad things happening, and I have, not the least of which is that I will have three years of expenses saved in a liquid account that isn't tied to the market in any way. If it tanks, I will use that and if need be and if available, Social Security payments to see me through until there is a rebound...and if no rebound, well, then, I am just 3 years further down the road and need less ultimately in my stock accounts anyway as I will not live forever.

NOW my entertainment is probably over, even if there is another post by "Maserati" that says I was trolled again...because that's only funny for so long.

agip,

When I coached, and as a masters athlete I would do a base building period following indoor nationals. I tried to get in a good six weeks of aerobic base and tempo running. That seemed to recharge the batteries for the outdoor season. As you know the anaerobic training can wear on you if one is not careful.

We are getting good snow, and the local ski area Bogus Basin already has one of the better bases in recent years. They offer night downhill skiing which the wife and I enjoy.

Igy

Welcome back, Flagpole. It's nice to have another voice of reason around here. Agip's been fighting the good fight and keeping the blowhards in check, but it's been getting pretty deep around here lately.

Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

Welcome back, Flagpole. It's nice to have another voice of reason around here. Agip's been fighting the good fight and keeping the blowhards in check, but it's been getting pretty deep around here lately.

I can see that.

Agip does a good job, so my intervention is not needed. Just WAY too risky to try to ride ups and downs like some in this thread say they do. I don't believe any of it anyway. It's like a gambler who says, "I've won over a million dollars". Well, how much have you lost?

It makes for interesting reading, but I really don't care much how much someone else makes doing something different than I do...good for them if true, but I am more than happy with my philosophy and what it has brought me. If I wanted to be retired in my 40s, I wouldn't have had children. I'll be done at age 60 (or MAYBE before if something big happens to the market or otherwise)...that's good enough for me.

Hey Flagpole, just wanted to let you know that my son got in early to his first choice college - you gave me some advice last year and it all worked out well so grazie mille.

I hope all is well with you and your family.

agip wrote:

Hey Flagpole, just wanted to let you know that my son got in early to his first choice college - you gave me some advice last year and it all worked out well so grazie mille.

I hope all is well with you and your family.

Hey, awesome! Congrats to your son and to you.

All is pretty good. I hope the same for you and yours.

It was, and is, clear to me that you believed that it was I who was doing the trolling, and that it was I to who you were responding.

The difference between you and I is that you are the hero of your own life. I've said it before, that your head is so far up your azz that you can't see daylight.

"Infinitesimal chance of financial failure". You're a piece of work, Neville.

Another difference is that I know people with LOTS of money, who can actually afford to think like you do. You and I are not in that boat. I have a good amount of wealth, but I'm not so blind that I can't see it evaporating, and fairly quickly and easily at that. You, OTOH, are blind to the possibilities that a new era may bring.

You are so certain about things that it is laughable. Absolutely certain that you won't need SS? Absolutely certain that your bank account will get you 3 years of expenses? You don't even consider a 75% capital levy, increased taxes, market crash, and currency devaluation/hyperinflation to be a possibility, either alone or together. That shows that you are still in the mindset of an accumulator, and have not actually achieved the point where you consider larger issues, because you need no longer consider the smaller ones.

If you are where you say you are, it is time you began to switch gears. Consider it a psychological rebalancing. I'm not kidding. It is true that the rich collect passports. Don't be so confident in your certitude. You and I are in the worst possible situation--some money, therefore something significant to lose, but not nearly enough to successfully insulate from calamity. Believe it. How much do you think you need?

I continue to work toward achieving both the level, and conditions, of sufficient flexibility to mean a higher level of certainty and security. I might actually get there, but I'm smart enough to know that I am currently not in fact there, which is why I work to maximize every year's opportunities.

And that's the essential difference between you and I.

I think we'll probably be in recession by end of 2016/mid 2017 - peak employment, crack in high yield bonds, peak corporate margins, nifty fifty type stocks, split between small caps and a few giant stocks... are signs of a serious problem coming. But in investing terms I won't change much - if I am usually 70% in stocks, maybe I'll go to 60%. Cause I'm wrong more than 50%, unfortunately.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2015/12/23/atlanta-feds-gdp-now-q4-gdp-at-1-3/

another prediction gone awry - the great noriel rubini predicting a stock market crash, in the two years after May 2013. Instead we are up 32%, no crash.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/roubini-bubble-stocks-burst-2-174801212.html

;_ylt=A0LEV1sxBntWvMIAxptXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEyNTdtbTRzBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjEzMjVfMQRzZWMDc3I-

"It could go on for another year or two," he said, speaking from the SALT Conference in Las Vegas.

"I see frothiness going to end up in nasty boom and bubble in asset prices, followed by crash and a bust, not this year, not next year, two years from now."

(Read More: Dow, S&P Hit New All-Time Highs )

On "Fast Money," Roubini cited a couple of factors: "Growth is slow. Earnings growth is also slowing down. Top line and bottom line are not as good as they used to be, but margins are high. They could correct somehow over time.

agip,

If your economic call is correct I would expect 8-10% equity returns for that period.

Igy