Rupp has tuned up; time for some Trials talk!

macdaddy wrote:

Dexy's Midnight Runner wrote:

Full disclosure: I'd rather not see Rupp make the team, so I can't be 100% confident my bias isn't influencing my view on this.

This is all I needed to know^^

If Rupp is healthy at the start of the trails (and he seems to be now), he could run away from people after 10k, 20k, or take a quick stretch break at 40k and still win.

He just jogged a time that would be a dream for most qualifiers. Don’t be silly.

FOH

I was originally impressed with the long run he did this morning. I mean I still am. The guy's nuts. That pace is 2:15 and he did it alone almost entirely on a 2.2 mile loop. But his heart rate was up in the 190's for most of it which is way higher than normal suggesting it was essentially an all out marathon. Plus, it looks like he stopped during mile 22 with his heart rate dropping from 190 to 140 almost instantly. I'll be excited to see what he can do and I think he beats ol Walmsley assuming neither of them blow up but top 10 is more reasonable.

Great list here--nice job....I think you missed Austin Brogan (looks to be rounding into really good shape-post injury, and is clearly a great racer), Ritz (who knows, but the my gosh the talent is there), Abdi (still has a shot), Reed Fischer, and Matt Llano--both seem to be a long shots, but running really well.

My picks--Rupp, Ward, Korir... (Ritz and Derrick will drop out-although I hope they don't), with Fauble, Mock, Brogan, Stinson, and Abdi not far back.

Rupp, Ward, Korir are the obvious favorites - appear to be a class above everyone including Fauble. It's gonna take a disaster - or injury flare up for Rupp to not make the team.

But this is the trials - there will be surprises. 2 of the 3 favorites above make it (Rupp being one), then the third guy is a surprise.....................Walmsley?!?!?!?! But seriously, there are probably 10 or so that could take the 3rd spot - including Abdi and old man Lagat.

I think the race plays out a little bit like 2012 where there is a pack going for sub 2:10 from far out and then everybody else. I think the pack will be about 10-15 guys in this race whereas in 2012 it was 6. I think guys like Stinson, Riley, Fauble, Ritz will do some leading early before Rupp goes to the front and breaks it open.

Lead pack will be Korir, Rupp, Ward, Fauble, Bumbalough, Derrick, Riley, Mock, Stinson, Ritz, Puskedra, Abdi, and Lagat.

I for one believe Rupp will cruise. He is the hands down favorite and won't expend energy he doesn't need too. He may not win, but he will be on the heels of the leader with 400 to go and may just let them run away with it. Eye's on the Olympics where he will easily be the USA's #1 finisher in the marathon by a few minutes. This is qualifying... Rupp will basically jog with the lead group and finish where he needs too in order to qualify.

I believe Korir if ready to go will basically do the same, albeit not quite as easily as Rupp. All others entered are a tier below IMHO.

Rupp's progression:

2:11:13

2:10:05

2:09:58

2:09:20

2:06:07

2:06:21

Agruably, with Korir debuting more than four minutes faster than Rupp, he's got a higher ceiling.

Also, Rupp's last two marathons were DNFs.

yyyhhhkkk wrote:

I for one believe Rupp will cruise. He is the hands down favorite and won't expend energy he doesn't need too. He may not win, but he will be on the heels of the leader with 400 to go and may just let them run away with it. Eye's on the Olympics where he will easily be the USA's #1 finisher in the marathon by a few minutes. This is qualifying... Rupp will basically jog with the lead group and finish where he needs too in order to qualify.

I believe Korir if ready to go will basically do the same, albeit not quite as easily as Rupp. All others entered are a tier below IMHO.

Rupp is too competitive for this scenario - he'll win the race rather handily. There are also the prize money consideration and sponsor bonuses that come along with winning. Not that he needs the cash, but marathon careers are short and he's only got so many years left to cash in.

frankly frank wrote:

Rupp's progression:

2:11:13

2:10:05

2:09:58

2:09:20

2:06:07

2:06:21

Agruably, with Korir debuting more than four minutes faster than Rupp, he's got a higher ceiling.

Also, Rupp's last two marathons were DNFs.

A bunch of races in different conditions says nothing about Rupp's ceiling.

Haile Geb's first marathon was 2:5x. That doesn't say anything about his ceiling.

Speaking of Rio, that's a great comparison. Rupp in the hunt each lap even after waiting for Farah, in a fast paced race Korir well off the back the last 6 laps. Rupp is going to drop Korir at 35K.

frankly frank wrote:

Rupp will not have it easy at all.

His big fear is Leonard Korir.

The last two races between the two, Rupp lost to Korir's kick. 2018 US XC, Korir dropped him like an empty IV bag.

2017 outdoor champs in Sacramento, not only did Korir outkick him to keep him off the world 10k team (when Rupp bypassed his marathon spot as he thought he was a lock) but Mead, Kipchirchir, Korir and Simbassa all outkicked him.

Leaving it to a kick is not what Rupp wants. Remember, Korir also outkicked Lilesa at the Houston half right after Rio.

I also dont think, with three spots on the line, that Rupp will control the race. Army has five guys entered and Kebenei is debuting. It will be a dog fight!

GBohannon wrote:

follow up on you, GB wrote:

@ GBohannon - you ever get your trials qualifier?!

Nope, 2:25:17 in Oct 2018 (not in Vaporflys! haha) is still my best. I had a bad race in May ‘19 (2:27:45 in Vaporflys) and have been struggling to find motivation ever since. As of now, I am about 25 lbs over racing weight and haven’t been doing much more than an easy 30-40 mpw since November. Hoping to re-catch the fire and give 2:20:00 a run in the next 5 yrs. I think the 2024 standard will be something silly like 2:15:00, but if it’s 2:19:00 again I will give it a go.

Oh, sorry to hear that. I thought you were going the half marathon route. Didn’t you run 1:06 a few years ago? I remember us bantering about running a sub-2:00 800m and I figured you could get close to 1:04 with your fitness and speed endurance. I’ve been where you are. I got motivated again 4 years later and kept in pretty good shape by playing soccer, xc skiing, backcountry snowboarding and other more fun sports. It wasn’t my plan to get back into running again, but being somewhat in shape made it a lot easier to restart. regroup and maybe you’ll find motivation again. If not, who cares. You’re a great runner and had some fantastic races.

<3 wrote:

Strange. Both around 2:14 marathon efforts. Either he is going essentially all out in these long runs like they are peak workouts, or he can run 2:11-12 in Atlanta.

he runs a 2:14 in training within a 30 mile run, with only about a minute or two of breaks to either pee or grab bottles...and you think that only predicts 2:11-2:12? maybe on the atlanta course!

to "not a basement dweller", 13 miles at roughly marathon pace is a lot more than "hardly a workout" for a 2:10 marathoner. It's worth flying to NOLA to participate because they get to practice in a race situation with their pacing and fueling, plus Nike foots the travel costs anyway, so it's only a couple hours in a plane. It might be too cold at their altitude camp to do that kind of effort properly anywhere nearby. It's not uncommon for elites to fly to a race just to tempo it, especially during marathon training.

Reed - you are obviously all in on CJ's Strava hype and the ridiculous workouts he supposedly cranks out. Are you ready to go on the record and predict he makes the team?

Seems like there’s some clear tiers, talent and performance wise. Predict the winner comes from one of the below.

Tier 1, proven winners with fastest PRs: Rupp, Korir. Both are in their prime and have PRs that are 2 min+ better than the field. Both have shown an ability to win big races.

Tier 2, no important wins but fast PRs: Ward, Fauble.

Tier 3, old but talented and proven: Ritz, Lagat

Tier 4, younger but talented and unproven: Derrick, Bumbalough

notscguy wrote:

Reed - you are obviously all in on CJ's Strava hype and the ridiculous workouts he supposedly cranks out. Are you ready to go on the record and predict he makes the team?

I don't think he will make the team. But we can still appreciate 4th or 5th, can't we?

With Rupp, Korir, Bumbalough, Derrick all presumably racing in the Alphafly, or at worst the Next%, the odds are a bit stacked against him. Not saying that he'd be guaranteed top three if everybody wore the same shoe, but his odds would improve in such a situation.

frankly frank wrote:

Rupp's progression:

2:11:13

2:10:05

2:09:58

2:09:20

2:06:07

2:06:21

Agruably, with Korir debuting more than four minutes faster than Rupp, he's got a higher ceiling.

Also, Rupp's last two marathons were DNFs.

Rupp has a DNF and a 2:06:21 as his last two. If you want to go three back you can add 2:06:07. Then you get another DNF from Boston.

Rupps debut and second marathon were championship races. He will be fine.

Apologies if this is satire wrote:

macdaddy wrote:

He just jogged a time that would be a dream for most qualifiers. Don’t be silly.

FOH

How many other runners have broken 62 during the qualifying season?

macdaddy wrote:

Apologies if this is satire wrote:

FOH

How many other runners have broken 62 during the qualifying season?

You really wanted to say you're clueless?