100 MPW will do that to you wrote:
Wow, they look like people who run a lot. Have you seen Mo Farah identical twin? Looks like a fat American. They look like that due to running, not genetics.
Fair enough, but all I was saying really is that it's pretty much a fact that obesity is much less of a problem in Kenya than the West. The majority of young Kenyans regardless of running are slim, whether by diet or genetics. The potential talent pool of Kenyan distance runners is so much larger.
The young population of Kenya must be close to twice that of GB. It's quite reasonable to suppose that 90%, maybe far more, of talented athletes in GB go into different sports than running. It's quite reasonable to suppose that close to 100% of talented Kenyan athletes go into running (and namely, distance running). That alone would give Kenyans something like a 20 to 1 advantage in producing elite runners over GB. If you bring into the levels of childhood obesity etc, with many British teens being lost causes by the time they entered their teens and so obese and inactive it would almost be impossible to identify any real talent in them even if they had it, then those figures would be much greater.
But let's just leave it at 20 to 1. Kenya ought to be producing 20 elite 1500 runners for every Jake Wightman or Josh Kerr that GB produces. But in fact it's nothing like that. Although Kenya does dominate the top rankings this year again, it's pretty much down to one training group (Bernard Ouma's), and I think Kenya and GB have the same number in the top 20.
The fact is, it's undeniable that doping is utterly rampant in Kenya, and there's no reason to believe it's the case in GB, which has better testing, less everyday corruption, and less busts (in fact zero busts). Kenya should be producing something like 20 top runners for every one GB produces, even without the doping, and they don't even come close to that. We know (contrary to RekRunner) the effect of EPO, and that it will add seconds to the peformances of 1500 runners and turn even sub-elites into potential medalists. GB shouldn't be able to compete with Kenya at all over 1500 if Kenyans have any genetic advantage over that distance. In fact, one small part of GB - Scotland - is competing with Kenya (likewise with similarly sized Norway).
Not to mention that if you brought Coe, Cram, Ovett in a time machine from the 80s and placed them in the Monaco DL race, potatoe Tim would probably be 4th in 3:28 (maybe dragged along by the Brits to a 3:27)