Can any avrage shmo can get to 15 min- 5k

What if it’s the average Iten resident?

I think way too aggressive. I’m not sure this board full rationalizes how much athletic talent self selects for… well… athletics.

This is all anecdotal obviously but I know a good number of people who were multiple sport varsity athletes in high school, put in decent mileage and 5k specific training and still can’t crack 16. Maybe I’m an outlier here but the idea that 50% of the male population on the US (or globally) can crack 16 is so obviously ludicrous it isn’t even worth discussing. I would put the over under at like 17:30-18 and even that might be pushing it.

No. Look at any open 5km race: very few break 15mins.

It is well beyond the ability of most who lack the determination to put in the training and ability to push themselves enough to run that fast.

Wrong. The median for all males, all ages who train seriously is about 29 minutes. That's the recorded average time for 5k parkruns in the UK for males. Females is about 33 minutes.

Probably a mid-pack D3 guy could get to high 15:xx, but 15 flat guys are toward the top of the race in D3. I think it still requires a certain level of talent. You probably have to be able to run 4:30 or so in the mile to hit 15 flat in the 5k, and not all D3 guys can hit that.

Off the top of my head, 15 minutes for 5K is equal to a baseball pitcher throwing about a 87 or 88 mile per hour fastball. Can the average guy train to throw 87 or 88 mile per hour fastball? No! About the same chance as finding guys who can run 15 minutes 5K.

4:30 mile ≠ 15:00 5k

4:30 mile = 16:00 5k

You are absolutely kidding. I was an OK club runner in England (ran for the county - equivalent to the state here - at x-country and track) and won a lot of 5k road races when I moved to the U.S., right up to my mid-50s, and have also placed in USATF Masters at 3000m s/c, 3000m indoors and 5000m.

I ran 1:57.5 for 800,, 4:20 for a mile and 15:20 for 5000m (I did finally crack 15:00 age graded in my 50s). I was running in England during the running boom, and ran in the National Road Relay Championships, and over 3 miles on that day would have made more that two-thirds of the top 50 teams in England (there were so many teams that it required regional qualifying to even get there).

So whilst admittedly, sub-sub elite, I was still in the upper 30% of serious, hard-training club runners (these were racing clubs, not running/jogging clubs), and was still a fair bit outside 15:00 5K.

So if all these people, who self-selected by having a predilection for distance running, were training hard and seriously for competition, and not breaking 15:00, how do you think you are going to get the average 'schmo' to run 4:50 per mile for 3 consecutive miles.

The OP might mean "average runner friends that I know and train with but who haven't broken 16 yet." If that is the group, then yes.

If you ask the drug-users of the world, "how often does the average person do 'shrooms?" They might say, "uh, like once a month?" The real answer is "never."

People are way too trapped in their social/cultural bubbles.

With an EPO prescription from the local pharmacy?

I’ll repost something that I put on another recent thread…but it applies equally as much here…

“It seems perplexing to me that many wannabe “elite” runners (and bodybuilders or athletes of most sports for that matter) ie those who start an activity with big dreams of being great, but without the knowledge or self evaluation skills to realise that perhaps it’s not in the cards for them, haven’t realised what animal breeders have realised for countless years.
Of course genetics matter. Otherwise why would breeders go to great lengths in order to breed the fastest horses or dogs.
Don’t believe me? Then I’ll wager a prize winning greyhound against any Spaniel you can find, and even let you train them for a year.
Genetics trump training of any kind. It’s that simple. No ordinary nag can be trained to win the Derby.”

Totally -- I don't think 50% of the male population would come close to that time. I reframed to ask what the cut line is for a runner who puts in the training. Where can someone get to who doesn't come to the sport with natural talent. I threw out 16:00. You think something slower? It's fair I know plenty of people 16-mid. Their training doesn't look any different from what people running 14 or 15 min 5ks are doing minus the paces they can handle. & they've been going at it for years.

I’ve seen what deemed to be average runners run extraordinary times later in their careers with excellent and consistent training. Talking mega mileage which only their bodies could endure so I guess talent is a factor there in staying injury free and not breaking down. But, even when those guys were horribly hopeless at ever being good those guys could still dust the entire gym class and lap guys in the mile.

You have a wide variety of body types in the US you got guys who are simply too large framed who are better off as basketball players. You got guys who are extremely fast twitch oriented who can get off the couch and run 11 seconds in the 100m. You got guys whose hips are are wider that their shoulders and have like 38 inch waists just based on bone structure. There’s guys that just don’t have cardiovascular talent who look like they’re in shape but can’t ever move faster than 8 min/ per mile pace.

I’d say the ceiling of the average American if you put them all in a blender is around 18:30. Which isn’t too bad. there would be some outlier joes who would be near that 15 mark, but then you’d get guys with miserable genetics maxing out at 23 minutes, which again would still be respectable for what their working with

I ran only about 40-50 mpw. I probably did too much hard running and not enough recovery.

But I ran in the area of 17:00 on a lot of 3.3 or so mile 5k's I once ran a 36:xx 6.4 miler.

Most of the courses I ran on were hilly.

With better, proper training and flat courses I may have been able to get in the 15's.

But are you an average shmo? And if you think so, how can you prove it?

Do guys "deemed to be average runners"="average shmos"???

I know a few guys who were goofy dorky unathletic types in 9th grade who couldn't break 20 mins go on to become sub 15 in college while some decent HS runners (9:40 types) couldn't while other ones went on to go sub 14. I know this doesn't help answer the OPs question but it is a phenomenon I've observed which suggests some unpredictability to one's potential.

You may think that, I ran 55-60 mpw as a high schooler, 70-100 in college and considered myself successful barely breaking 16. I didn’t win a lot in college but I was consistently scoring. The 5k wasn’t my best event but I think I’m talented enough to do it well and cannot imagine there was a way I’d drop 20 seconds a mile.

It's all highly dependent on the raw speed the individual has right now (not 20 years ago). If you're all-out 400m is 75 seconds, for example, you ain't touching 15 or 16 or even 17.

Most weekend-warrior athletes who are males can hit 75 to 80 seconds for the 400m if their life depended on it. This is why you see so many 19 and 20 minute 5k runners at your turkey trot races....they are likely very under-trained and just using their innate speed and strength to muscle through the race. Put them through some rigor and they can run 17s. Maybe high-16s for a select few. That's about it unless they somehow improve their base-level speed.

You need a fast-enough 400/800/mile time to move up to the next level. Probably 4:30-something mile at a minimum to touch sub-16.

Any Joe Shmoe who is not morbidly obese can just put on supershoes and run 15 flat on a track after a couple months of base training