I agree, but I was going through some stats of area runners from my old high school; I found a girl whose PR in the 1600m was only 5:30 in high school, yet she went on to be the #1 runner in cross country at a P5 conference. She walked on, obviously. Who would've thought, right? Some women are late bloomers, not sure if this applicable to men, too.
correct me if I'm wrong, but she basically runs her 6K pace in her high school PR-mile time (if that makes sense), who does that? Lol.
Some people are late bloomers, I even found another athlete like this in the same conference- again, a female athlete who walked on to a Div 1 school and ended up being their #1 runner. it's odd, but sometimes even high school times don't show a female athlete's full potential.
of course, sometimes it goes the other way, too. E.g., a high school star will not improve in college.
Yeah but the bigger proof is that as a girl, once you hit sub4:55 as an 8th grader you are destined for greatness. Pretty much automatic national contender.
Lexy Halladay (will be a freshman next year at Mountain View, Idaho) is up there as well: she ran 4:26.90 to win the Portland Track Festival open race today. Fellow eighth grader Madison Elmore (Eugene, Oregon) also ran 4:31.
Add in athletes like Taylor Roe (4:47 for 1600m in 8th grade last year), the plethora of Montana girls the last couple years, Gracie Ping, Kelsey Chmiel, Morgan Foster, Claire Walters, etc. there are a LOT of great young girls out there right now.
There seem to always be a bunch of promising 7-10th grade female runners, but unfortunately puberty hits and they fail to improve. A recent exception is Hasay and maybe Ostrander (but time will tell yet with AllieO).
However, I will not expect her to be the next star. Pre-pubescent girls are infamous for putting up insane times and then failing to improve. Young boys can expect to receive massive improvement due to testosterone and growth spurts. A girl in high school probably won't grow much more, and will almost certainly gain 15-30 pounds.
Good assessment. How are we feeling about this now?