In most disciplines the best are the measure of how to be the best. This sport is no exception.
Like I had said, all these last 800 results show, is that running the 800M only for Kessler would have been a huge mistake. Again, it's not the raw times run in a final, it is the real PR ability to get there. And then medal. I do not see anyone making the final who cannot run under 1:42.77, I use that because I think Hoppel can make the final regardless of other Prs, To medal, I think you need to be 1:42 flat or so capable, doesn't mean race will go like that, just have that ability.
You are correct. Raw times can show what is possible and especially in a race aimed to be as fast as possible. But each race has to be run on its own merits, according to the conditions and tactics being used - and that especially applies to championship races. No one sets out to run their fastest time; they run to win or at least place. So the "best" way or "correct' way to run that is the way that comes closest to achieving that. Versatility and adaptability help maximise those chances, not just speed and stamina - or running even-pace.
I agree with your sentiment that both sub-3:30 and sub-7:30 are in the cards right now for Kessler, though he may not get the opportunity for those exact races. But it’s simply a matter of when, not if. He’s already there. FWIW, I do kind of wish he would just focus on the 800 this Olympic cycle. I get that he has a very outside shot at a medal in the 1500, but if he could really sharpen his speed and run the 800 on fresh legs, who really knows how fast he could run? He might shave another second.
I get the allure of liking Kessler as an 800M runner, I really do. But He is a 1500M runner first..The 1:43.x's are a by product of the training and circumstance, don't get carried away by what you saw and the watch, guys are not gonna drop tenths and tenths every race out which it would require just to make a final at 800. Even the rounds of the 15 might be fast, but that is his primary event right now. If he was in Monaco on the train, I think he could find 1.x to go sub 3:30, he is not in that for a really good reason. The 6 races in 10 days will tax anyone. Focus was always get to the Olympics at 1500, 800M was gravy, whether some like this or not. You gotta be able to run 1:42 mid to even factor in Games 800M final, not that the times might not be different .8 or more? is hard to find at this point I would think.
He is, perhaps, a 1:43.00 runner if he just focused purely on polishing speed and fresh. But, I take your point. He is a 1500 runner who can, perhaps, push from 800 out. He may not even make the final, so, yes, he will still have the 800. It simply would be *fun* to see what he could do on fresher legs for the two-lap event. But it would still require a perfect race and luck to factor.
I have to say you’ve been on HK from the very beginning and the most correct. I always hoped this kid could make championship teams and set ARs… now he is there.
I get the allure of liking Kessler as an 800M runner, I really do. But He is a 1500M runner first..The 1:43.x's are a by product of the training and circumstance, don't get carried away by what you saw and the watch, guys are not gonna drop tenths and tenths every race out which it would require just to make a final at 800. Even the rounds of the 15 might be fast, but that is his primary event right now. If he was in Monaco on the train, I think he could find 1.x to go sub 3:30, he is not in that for a really good reason. The 6 races in 10 days will tax anyone. Focus was always get to the Olympics at 1500, 800M was gravy, whether some like this or not. You gotta be able to run 1:42 mid to even factor in Games 800M final, not that the times might not be different .8 or more? is hard to find at this point I would think.
He is, perhaps, a 1:43.00 runner if he just focused purely on polishing speed and fresh. But, I take your point. He is a 1500 runner who can, perhaps, push from 800 out. He may not even make the final, so, yes, he will still have the 800. It simply would be *fun* to see what he could do on fresher legs for the two-lap event. But it would still require a perfect race and luck to factor.
I have to say you’ve been on HK from the very beginning and the most correct. I always hoped this kid could make championship teams and set ARs… now he is there.
Thanks for kind words
I have only known about him and been right on the talent level because Ron is close friend of mine.
To be fair I had never really heard of Kessler or talked about him, until Ron called me and said they were doing a workout the summer going into his Senior year and he was pacing a longer rep for VNTC guys at 3:07 for 1200 and he looked good enough to finish so Ron yelled to finish with last 400 he did in 60.x
Listen, when you have a guy who can run 1:43.64
3:31.51
7:39 two years and 4 months ago, surely can run 7:30 you would think now.
it is a lot to work with, especially when he can do so much stuff you don’t want to “break him “
Because he can do some amazing “sh-t” in practice
And he surely can.
The 1500m final will be very challenging to make . I figure you have to be an “able to run” sub 3:31.00 guy to even have a chance to make the final.
And unless luck at least a sub 3:30 guy to medal
Tactics and pace can help someone get a bit lucky, but there are too many good guys for that many to miss on same day.
He is, perhaps, a 1:43.00 runner if he just focused purely on polishing speed and fresh. But, I take your point. He is a 1500 runner who can, perhaps, push from 800 out. He may not even make the final, so, yes, he will still have the 800. It simply would be *fun* to see what he could do on fresher legs for the two-lap event. But it would still require a perfect race and luck to factor.
I have to say you’ve been on HK from the very beginning and the most correct. I always hoped this kid could make championship teams and set ARs… now he is there.
Thanks for kind words
I have only known about him and been right on the talent level because Ron is close friend of mine.
To be fair I had never really heard of Kessler or talked about him, until Ron called me and said they were doing a workout the summer going into his Senior year and he was pacing a longer rep for VNTC guys at 3:07 for 1200 and he looked good enough to finish so Ron yelled to finish with last 400 he did in 60.x
Listen, when you have a guy who can run 1:43.64
3:31.51
7:39 two years and 4 months ago, surely can run 7:30 you would think now.
it is a lot to work with, especially when he can do so much stuff you don’t want to “break him “
Because he can do some amazing “sh-t” in practice
And he surely can.
The 1500m final will be very challenging to make . I figure you have to be an “able to run” sub 3:31.00 guy to even have a chance to make the final.
And unless luck at least a sub 3:30 guy to medal
Tactics and pace can help someone get a bit lucky, but there are too many good guys for that many to miss on same day.
Sorry, I was just corrected on that 1200 split it was bit faster
Like I had said, all these last 800 results show, is that running the 800M only for Kessler would have been a huge mistake. Again, it's not the raw times run in a final, it is the real PR ability to get there. And then medal. I do not see anyone making the final who cannot run under 1:42.77, I use that because I think Hoppel can make the final regardless of other Prs, To medal, I think you need to be 1:42 flat or so capable, doesn't mean race will go like that, just have that ability.
You are correct. Raw times can show what is possible and especially in a race aimed to be as fast as possible. But each race has to be run on its own merits, according to the conditions and tactics being used - and that especially applies to championship races. No one sets out to run their fastest time; they run to win or at least place. So the "best" way or "correct' way to run that is the way that comes closest to achieving that. Versatility and adaptability help maximise those chances, not just speed and stamina - or running even-pace.
No, the best runner in the field can control the race by leading wire to wire and is what, among others, Juantorena and Rudisha did. The 800m is forgiving of positive splits, and all the world records are a result of that strategy:
Lap Times In 800 WRs Since The First Sub-1:50Since Tom Hampson of Britain ran history's first sub-1:50 in the 800 at the '32 Olympics, only twice in the progression of the fastest time ever (not necessarily the official World...
You are correct. Raw times can show what is possible and especially in a race aimed to be as fast as possible. But each race has to be run on its own merits, according to the conditions and tactics being used - and that especially applies to championship races. No one sets out to run their fastest time; they run to win or at least place. So the "best" way or "correct' way to run that is the way that comes closest to achieving that. Versatility and adaptability help maximise those chances, not just speed and stamina - or running even-pace.
No, the best runner in the field can control the race by leading wire to wire and is what, among others, Juantorena and Rudisha did. The 800m is forgiving of positive splits, and all the world records are a result of that strategy:
If that were always the best way to win it would be the only way anyone wins. It isn't. Very few championship races are won wire-to-wire. The examples you give are the exceptions. Usually the best runner wins through making tactical choices, and it isn't simply through trying to run even-pace or positive or negative splits. They are racing other runners, not the stopwatch or their pr's.
Although most world records were achieved with positive splits there can be some variation in those splits and it's worth remembering that very very few championship 800m races result in world records.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
I get the allure of liking Kessler as an 800M runner, I really do. But He is a 1500M runner first..The 1:43.x's are a by product of the training and circumstance, don't get carried away by what you saw and the watch, guys are not gonna drop tenths and tenths every race out which it would require just to make a final at 800. Even the rounds of the 15 might be fast, but that is his primary event right now. If he was in Monaco on the train, I think he could find 1.x to go sub 3:30, he is not in that for a really good reason. The 6 races in 10 days will tax anyone. Focus was always get to the Olympics at 1500, 800M was gravy, whether some like this or not. You gotta be able to run 1:42 mid to even factor in Games 800M final, not that the times might not be different .8 or more? is hard to find at this point I would think.
He is, perhaps, a 1:43.00 runner if he just focused purely on polishing speed and fresh. But, I take your point. He is a 1500 runner who can, perhaps, push from 800 out. He may not even make the final, so, yes, he will still have the 800. It simply would be *fun* to see what he could do on fresher legs for the two-lap event. But it would still require a perfect race and luck to factor.
I have to say you’ve been on HK from the very beginning and the most correct. I always hoped this kid could make championship teams and set ARs… now he is there.
As a 1:43.64 and 3:31.52 guy Kessler certainly SHOULD make the final. Not doing so would not be a failure as he is running against the world's best.
Problem for Kessler (and others) would be the abundance of talent in the field. If everyone runs what they are "capable of", he's got his hands full. I fully expect him to be in the Final. 65% probability.
And there is no correct way to run the 800m. Always depends upon the runner.
The slower the guy the smaller the gap should be between lap times. Faster guys like Rudisha can let er rip and hang on. Kessler is always going to be the guy that goes out a bit slower and uses strength to get back in it.
He is, perhaps, a 1:43.00 runner if he just focused purely on polishing speed and fresh. But, I take your point. He is a 1500 runner who can, perhaps, push from 800 out. He may not even make the final, so, yes, he will still have the 800. It simply would be *fun* to see what he could do on fresher legs for the two-lap event. But it would still require a perfect race and luck to factor.
I have to say you’ve been on HK from the very beginning and the most correct. I always hoped this kid could make championship teams and set ARs… now he is there.
As a 1:43.64 and 3:31.52 guy Kessler certainly SHOULD make the final. Not doing so would not be a failure as he is running against the world's best.
Problem for Kessler (and others) would be the abundance of talent in the field. If everyone runs what they are "capable of", he's got his hands full. I fully expect him to be in the Final. 65% probability.
He should be the first guy out as there are 8 faster people (with the 3/country limit) in the last 18 months with his 1:43.66. 21 dudes with faster 1500m. Making these finals will be an accomplishment
He is, perhaps, a 1:43.00 runner if he just focused purely on polishing speed and fresh. But, I take your point. He is a 1500 runner who can, perhaps, push from 800 out. He may not even make the final, so, yes, he will still have the 800. It simply would be *fun* to see what he could do on fresher legs for the two-lap event. But it would still require a perfect race and luck to factor.
I have to say you’ve been on HK from the very beginning and the most correct. I always hoped this kid could make championship teams and set ARs… now he is there.
As a 1:43.64 and 3:31.52 guy Kessler certainly SHOULD make the final. Not doing so would not be a failure as he is running against the world's best.
Problem for Kessler (and others) would be the abundance of talent in the field. If everyone runs what they are "capable of", he's got his hands full. I fully expect him to be in the Final. 65% probability.
Final of what
He certainly would not be even close to a favorite to making the 800 final especially after hopefully multiple races.
he is maybe the 12-14 fastest 800 guy this year ? Done once ever?
i would also hardly call it a failure , not making the 1500m final either.
He is, perhaps, a 1:43.00 runner if he just focused purely on polishing speed and fresh. But, I take your point. He is a 1500 runner who can, perhaps, push from 800 out. He may not even make the final, so, yes, he will still have the 800. It simply would be *fun* to see what he could do on fresher legs for the two-lap event. But it would still require a perfect race and luck to factor.
I have to say you’ve been on HK from the very beginning and the most correct. I always hoped this kid could make championship teams and set ARs… now he is there.
As a 1:43.64 and 3:31.52 guy Kessler certainly SHOULD make the final. Not doing so would not be a failure as he is running against the world's best.
Problem for Kessler (and others) would be the abundance of talent in the field. If everyone runs what they are "capable of", he's got his hands full. I fully expect him to be in the Final. 65% probability.
As a 1:43.64 and 3:31.52 guy Kessler certainly SHOULD make the final. Not doing so would not be a failure as he is running against the world's best.
Problem for Kessler (and others) would be the abundance of talent in the field. If everyone runs what they are "capable of", he's got his hands full. I fully expect him to be in the Final. 65% probability.
He should be the first guy out as there are 8 faster people (with the 3/country limit) in the last 18 months with his 1:43.66. 21 dudes with faster 1500m. Making these finals will be an accomplishment
I was speaking of the 1500m only. Do not see him in 800m Final
Did not realize that there were 21 guys in Paris with better 1500m times. I'd have to adjust my 65% probability slightly downward.
As a 1:43.64 and 3:31.52 guy Kessler certainly SHOULD make the final. Not doing so would not be a failure as he is running against the world's best.
Problem for Kessler (and others) would be the abundance of talent in the field. If everyone runs what they are "capable of", he's got his hands full. I fully expect him to be in the Final. 65% probability.
