Warning: Long post incoming
I think his race in this past European Championships actually shows the way to WIN against Josh Kerr and everybody else in the field, hear me out.
I agree with everything you said detailing Jakob, but I don’t think he needs to run 3:28 to win Olympic Gold. Obviously he ran that in Tokyo, but he had someone to draft off of who was running really fast (sub 56 sec laps). It was a perfect race for him to win gold. But we will never see someone pace him again like this, well, atleast not in the traditional sense (more on that later). Moreover, I don’t think it’s Jakobs lack of 50 meter acceleration or strength that cost him in 2022 or even 2023, I firmly believe it was his tactics instead.
Think about this, in Eugene 2022, his first lap was 55.9 and wightmans was 55.75. That’s great for Jakob, except for the fact that his entire first lap was in lane 2. That’s almost 10 meters atleast of extra distance covered as compared to Wightman, who tucked into lane 1, drafted, and ran like that majority of the race. The next 300 meters? Jakob continues running in lane 2 at a fast pace and surges to the front in 1:37.69 at 700m to get ahead of Kipsang. Picture this, if all that lane 2 running for the first 700 meters equated to about maybe 14 meters of extra distance run, what do you think he actually went through 700m in? Probably 1:35 high! The guy wasted so much energy from running in lane 2, and then later on defending his position from Tim Cheruiyot, that he of course could not respond to Wightman, who ran a perfectly even race in lane 1, and used his energy to pass him with 200 to go. Jakob SEEMED like he was lagging on the third lap with a 56.xx, but really if he ran the race with more ideal distance covered, it would have been more like 2:46-2:47 at 1200m. The dude still got 2nd while running like an idiot at what is quite possibly almost WR tempo. There was no better “800m” ability or kick or lack of strength, Jakob just raced like an idiot! Even Katir (similarly to Nordas who I will describe in the next paragraph) got third in this race just by starting in the back, using the least energy. Then, when the pace lagged he made up places, and had tons of energy left at the end to use it to get bronze.
Now as for Budapest 2023, Jakob found an even greater gear beforehand, running 3:27.14 in Silesa about a month before the final. He surely had to be close to 3:26.xx ability by the time August came around…but he lost again. I want to start off by saying that I think his illness affected him MARGINALLY. It negatively affected his fitness and added to his loss. But, I think what hit the nail in the coffin for his still incredible 2nd place finish were his tactics again! Jakob opens up very fiercly in 27.2 at the 200m and then 41.29 for the 300m, tucking behind Kipsang, who then slows them down tremendously after 400 in 56. Then…Jakob gets to the front and slows them down to a 58.xx sec lap at 800m. What was the point of this? He opened up so fast for the first 200 and 300, spiking his heart rate, lactic acid, whatever you want to call it, only to slow it down and then lead to 800m at a much slower pace? Compare that to Kerr. Tucked in nicely in the middle of the pack(I don’t think the position really matters, could have been in the back like nordas) and ran a first lap of 56.66, and a 2nd lap of 58.xx, which was much more even and in lane 1 without needing to pass someone. Even Nordas, who started at the very back. Got 3rd in this race by only needing to run a first 400m in 57.09 and 800m in 1:55.36, more even than both Kerr and Ingebrigtsen and he only finished 0.03 seconds behind Jakob and 0.3 sec behind Kerr. The real takeaway though is what happened on the third lap. The pace slowed ENOUGH on the 2nd lap to allow Kerr to go into Lane 2 and almost even lane 3 to get past everybody in the blink of 50-100m to tuck in behind Jakob with minimal energy usage since everybody was slowing down. It was obvious that this guy was going to shred Jakob on the final 200m, because he ran a smarter race! Jakob was sick + went out way harder than Kerr or Nordas and was in lane 2ish for the first lap, it was bound to be close and it was with his 2nd place finish. This is not even considering the drafting component of Kerr or wightman in these races.
And do you know whats incredible, the guy still gets 2nd even though he runs distance and effort-wise the worst in the top 3 at the two championships. This leads me though to the European Champs 1500m.
He opens up with a 15.1 second 100m 😂 like 5-10ish meters behind the field and then speeds up to a 28.9 200m and catches up to them, while Ignacio Fontes pushed a fast first 300m. The difference though is that Jakob did not rush to the front…He trusted himself and his ability to conserve energy, all while running in lane 1. And guess what? After a 41.73 opening 300m, the pace immediately slowed down and Jakob was able to effortlessly glide around everybody from 400m-500m and get to the front with about 1000m to go. THIS IS HOW YOU DO IT. Jakob does not need to push super hard the first 300m to take the lead and then keep on pushing a fast pace. What he needs to do is stay in lane 1, wait until they slow down after having wasted energy, then go wide and relaxed and get to the front and wind up the pace from there. This allowed Jakob to run a final 400m of 53.3, with the final 300m splits of 13.54, 13.25, and 12.86! He destroyed the field with his strength because he raced smartly. Habz, who had a 1:43 800m PB, got shredded in the final 200m by Jakob. Or Gourley with his 3:47 mile PB, was distanced by almost 2 seconds in the final 100m by Jakob. Part of the problem is expectation. Jakob feels the need to just go wire to wire because it’s the most impressive way to win, but it’s an incredibly stupid way to race, especially in a 1500m with no rabbits. Imagine if he had raced Budapest by starting in the back with Nordas, and then when Kipsang started to lag in pace between 400-600m, he could get to front pretty easily? He would have had energy to fend off Kerrs final 100m of 13.6 as compared to his own 13.9, even while sick!
This is the strategy he needs to use. Start at the back at a pedestrian pace, let them go out fast. Then, when it lags in pace from 400-700m, get to the front with the most energy possible and grind them down with a fast final 800m El Guerrouj style. I hope he does it this way, it’s his best shot without a pacemaker.