What a coach says isn’t necessary realistic, but maybe. A 12:30 does equate to 7:48 for 2 miles and 26:00, so it does seem improbable.
Put another way, 12:30/5k = 3 x 4:00/1600 + 30 sec.
Which is to say, a 12:30/5k is back-to-back-to-back 4:01 miles + 27 sec for the final 172 meters.
Who in this field is capable of going through 2 miles in 8:02, then running another mile in 4:01, then finishing off the final bit in 27 secs?
Simply, no one.
There were multiple super-fast 5ks last year -- using super spikes, pacing lights, etc. -- and no one broke 12:40.
Now, it's these same guys running it back, this time in an early season race.
Improbable, to say the least.
Agree with posters above that Jakob is the most likely candidate to set the record -- but probably will have to wait until 2026 when there is no WC/Oly Games for him to turn his focus to a 5k WR attempt.
Cheptegei's 12:35 WR probably can be broken but likely by only a couple seconds, possibly even just by a few tenths of a second.
But 12:30?
Barring someone who tries to get away with genetically engineering himself -- already banned by WADA since 2003 -- a 12:30/5k simply appears to be beyond human capabilities, at least as humans exist today.
Ha-ha! All these speculations. So you think that it is outside any living human´s ability to go sub 12:30?
I think posters like you said the same before Auita broke 13 and again before Gebrselassie over some years first broke 12:50 and together with Komen 12:40 .
You don´t think anyone can run a 2 miles in 8:02, one more mile in 4:01 and then finishing in 27 seconds. What about the guy who ran 7:54 in the 2 miles. What did you by the way predict BEFORE his 2 miles race in Paris last year?
I suppose you agree that a runner needs to have a monster aerobic capacity to go sub 12:30? If you don´t think Jakob can do it now what about in a couple of years? Or do you think he has finished improving his endurance?
While historical breakthroughs have defied expectations, one thing they do not do is guarantee future leaps of such magnitude. The physiological demands of a 12:30 5k are extraordinary, requiring a near-perfect blend of aerobic capacity, lactate threshold, and raw speed.
Yes, we've seen incredible performances in the 2-mile, but translating that speed to a longer distance is not a simple linear progression.
How do you equal 12:30 to 7:48 in the 2 miles. According to my calculations 12:30 rather equals 7:50.5 in the 2 miles (by extrapolating IAAF´s ranking points for the 2 distances).
The world record belongs below 12:30. I said last summer there are 8 guys in the world that should be trying to be the first man sub-12:30. If you plug their splits into stat gangsta from those super fast 5000m races last summer you'll see what I'm talking about. 6.25 seconds in the 5000m is just half a second per lap. They need to learn to think like Billy Mills in the movie running brave.
First heard it during Luis G’s post race interview. Looked up the meet and they also seem to be hinting at it. Is this for real that these guys would be running that in May?
12:30 or not this is not going to improve its image of East Africans who are doing a trash work in the latest years. At some point I even found answer in this forum from user saying "the country of Norway is owning Ethiopia"... go figure why:
lack of brain and intelligent management of runners.
That is what’s wrong with the USA trials system. Fisher, and the rest of the top US runners, have to focus on making the Olympic team first then hope they haven’t out peaked themselves and be ready to run again five weeks after the fact at the Olympics.
Other runners from other countries who have little to no depth that have made the Olympic standard and are auto qualified by their countries have a far easier road to the Olympics. They can also race DL races etc. without the same concerns about travel, training, and having to be ready on a single day in order to make their county’s team. That is a huge advantage.
Solution for USA is the fastest runner in a given event that has made the Olympic standard the year of the Olympics gets a auto qualifier.
if fisher can't run a race a month out from the trials and comfortably still be able to make the team, why should he be given a spot on the team? you want to give up one of the most important parts of the sport in the US (top 3 go to the olympics) so that we can see more athletes run time trials?
3 years ago cole hocker 'peaked' for indoor NCAAs, outdoor NCAAs, outdoor nationals, and the olympics (6th). 2 years ago mario garcia romo 'peaked' for indoor ncaas, outdoor ncaas, outdoor nationals, and WCs (4th). both did better coming off 8 months of regular racing than they did the next year as pros.
i don't think its as black and white as you make it out to be, so im in favor of keeping the trials system the way that it is.
That is what’s wrong with the USA trials system. Fisher, and the rest of the top US runners, have to focus on making the Olympic team first then hope they haven’t out peaked themselves and be ready to run again five weeks after the fact at the Olympics.
Other runners from other countries who have little to no depth that have made the Olympic standard and are auto qualified by their countries have a far easier road to the Olympics. They can also race DL races etc. without the same concerns about travel, training, and having to be ready on a single day in order to make their county’s team. That is a huge advantage.
Solution for USA is the fastest runner in a given event that has made the Olympic standard the year of the Olympics gets a auto qualifier.
if fisher can't run a race a month out from the trials and comfortably still be able to make the team, why should he be given a spot on the team? you want to give up one of the most important parts of the sport in the US (top 3 go to the olympics) so that we can see more athletes run time trials?
3 years ago cole hocker 'peaked' for indoor NCAAs, outdoor NCAAs, outdoor nationals, and the olympics (6th). 2 years ago mario garcia romo 'peaked' for indoor ncaas, outdoor ncaas, outdoor nationals, and WCs (4th). both did better coming off 8 months of regular racing than they did the next year as pros.
i don't think its as black and white as you make it out to be, so im in favor of keeping the trials system the way that it is.
+1 People are overestimating the dangers for overracing.
As an former elite (veteran) runner myself : Racing is the best sharpening you can get as long as you allow for full recovery between the races.
How do you equal 12:30 to 7:48 in the 2 miles. According to my calculations 12:30 rather equals 7:50.5 in the 2 miles (by extrapolating IAAF´s ranking points for the 2 distances).
OK, but none of the guys running at Oslo can run anywhere near 7:50.
Josh Kerr might be the ideal pacer on Norweigian soil. He and Jakob is not gonna run each other before the Olympics anyway
They will race eachother at Pre in less than 2 weeks time!
Naaah, that's 99% a paper duel only - American meets are infamous for tossing superstars at each other before the tickets are sold - and once they are suddenly one of the guys are doing a different distance for whatever lame reason.
if fisher can't run a race a month out from the trials and comfortably still be able to make the team, why should he be given a spot on the team? you want to give up one of the most important parts of the sport in the US (top 3 go to the olympics) so that we can see more athletes run time trials?
3 years ago cole hocker 'peaked' for indoor NCAAs, outdoor NCAAs, outdoor nationals, and the olympics (6th). 2 years ago mario garcia romo 'peaked' for indoor ncaas, outdoor ncaas, outdoor nationals, and WCs (4th). both did better coming off 8 months of regular racing than they did the next year as pros.
i don't think its as black and white as you make it out to be, so im in favor of keeping the trials system the way that it is.
+1 People are overestimating the dangers for overracing.
As a former elite (veteran) runner myself : Racing is the best sharpening you can get as long as you allow for full recovery between the races.
The argument is whether multiple “full recoveries” are detrimental to preparing for the OT.
They don't need to. I don't think I've ever seen a men's distance world record paced to 80% of the total distance.
Most don't even make it to 60%, and yet world records still get set.
If one of them was in ridiculous shape, and didn't have all the others in the race, then they'd probably stand a good shot of getting it if the pacer could make it to half way.
However, with the presence of all the other guys, you'll get a heap of foxing, and no one will want to take the lead when the pacer drops out. No one wants to bust their arse, only for some other guy to kick past them on the last lap and take the world record.
I would agree except Aregawi has shown himself willing to lead others to glory many times over. Not the best racer, but fit and has guts.
Unless he is the pacer, there is no way Aregawi is going to set a 12:30 pace. If he did so, stepping off the track at 4K, would be a far better choice than suffering through a miserable last 1K.
That's what they did in the EPO 1990s, getting pacers to run mid 4:50s to 2k, or better. They spent the money for pacers. Same thing in the early 1980s where you had legitimate world class runners doing the pacing duty and occasionally stealing a race.
The news on the Spanish media talk about Chep (and only Chep) going for the WR.
Sub 12:30 is not mentioned and not happening lol
Sub 12:30 is to 12:35:36 what 2:00:25 is to 2:01:09, at least.
Since he set the WR, Cheptegei has announced an official WR attempt at 5000 before that was not even remotely close.
I'm dismissing the 3000 because the WR attempt was just hinted.
I hope Cheptegei means business this time. Another big miss would mean he would not get taken seriously -and I'm talking entry fees- the next time he "goes for a WR at a road race, let's say.
Lowering the current WR is only happening in a perfect race.
But running faster than Bekele's and owning the 1-2 fastest times ever in the distance, or even faster than 12:40 and earning the #1 and another top 5 spot would be huge.
If he manages to get #1-#2 times and gold at Paris, he's the 5000 GOAT.
The news on the Spanish media talk about Chep (and only Chep) going for the WR.
Sub 12:30 is not mentioned and not happening lol
Sub 12:30 is to 12:35:36 what 2:00:25 is to 2:01:09, at least.
Since he set the WR, Cheptegei has announced an official WR attempt at 5000 before that was not even remotely close.
I'm dismissing the 3000 because the WR attempt was just hinted.
I hope Cheptegei means business this time. Another big miss would mean he would not get taken seriously -and I'm talking entry fees- the next time he "goes for a WR at a road race, let's say.
Lowering the current WR is only happening in a perfect race.
But running faster than Bekele's and owning the 1-2 fastest times ever in the distance, or even faster than 12:40 and earning the #1 and another top 5 spot would be huge.
If he manages to get #1-#2 times and gold at Paris, he's the 5000 GOAT.
No chance he surpasses Bekele as 5000m GOAT. Times, dominance and world/olympic titles. He leads the way in 1 with an inarguable mechanical advantage (conservatively 5 seconds in a 5,000). Bekele ran high-level 5000s way more and won them. That counts for something.
The news on the Spanish media talk about Chep (and only Chep) going for the WR.
Sub 12:30 is not mentioned and not happening lol
Sub 12:30 is to 12:35:36 what 2:00:25 is to 2:01:09, at least.
Since he set the WR, Cheptegei has announced an official WR attempt at 5000 before that was not even remotely close.
I'm dismissing the 3000 because the WR attempt was just hinted.
I hope Cheptegei means business this time. Another big miss would mean he would not get taken seriously -and I'm talking entry fees- the next time he "goes for a WR at a road race, let's say.
Lowering the current WR is only happening in a perfect race.
But running faster than Bekele's and owning the 1-2 fastest times ever in the distance, or even faster than 12:40 and earning the #1 and another top 5 spot would be huge.
If he manages to get #1-#2 times and gold at Paris, he's the 5000 GOAT.
No chance he surpasses Bekele as 5000m GOAT. Times, dominance and world/olympic titles. He leads the way in 1 with an inarguable mechanical advantage (conservatively 5 seconds in a 5,000). Bekele ran high-level 5000s way more and won them. That counts for something.
It's also hard to see him matching up to Kenenisa's XC dominance given his defeats at the hands of Kiplimo, but even he did, he'd still have to prove himself with a fantastic career on the roads to have any edge on Bekele, though I see him being outshined there by Kiplimo and others as well.
I really want to see Jakob take a crack at a fast 5000m soon, I think he has to since he doesn’t have the standard yet for this year. We haven’t seen him really go for a fast time in the 5000m since June 2021 when he ran 12:48.45 in Florence and won, beating Gebrhiwet, Cheptegei, Ahmed, and many other fast guys.
Surely the two time defending world champion in the event would get in on ranking?
True, I’m just confused because I remember when he ran the 5000m final in Oregon 2022 the graphic didn’t show him as having a world ranking, even though he ran 13:02 two months prior. I’m not gonna pretend like I know how the qualifying/ranking system works lol