I gave Gebrselassie as an explanation why I think 8:00.67 is worth around 7:25.0.
Is it Kerr's ultimate current potential? From 1 time trial?
1:45.94 + 8:00.67 in April/Februar is not nothing, it's an almost unique combination. I expect around 3:27.0 from him, not 3:26.0
1:44.2 not 1:44.0
What about Jakob´s 1:46.44 - 7:54.10 combination?
Don´t you think that beat Kerr´s?
And Jakob´s 800m PB was run at age 19 when his 1500m PB was 3:30.
Kerr's PB is 1:45.35 from 2019 when his 1500m PB was 3:33.60.
No, Ingebrigtsen's PBs over 800m and 2 Miles don't "beat" Kerr's PBs over those distances. Also Ingebrigtsen's combo is of a higher value for me.
But still Kerr's combo could be unique (no one else could have run those two times). Which isn't true (Morceli).
But - again - 8:00.67 was from a solo effort over the distance and 1:45.94 was run in April while running away from the field with 300 to go. It's not far stretched for me that he can run much faster later in the season.
I expect something GREAT from him over 1500m this season.
-the runner only held the other kind of fitness for a few month in the late season of 2022,
- he since then has been out of competition for a full year,
- he is more than 5 sec away from the 3:28 you boldly postulate he can run even though he never hasn´t (neither has he been close to 1:42 in the 800m),
-he will be 30 before Paris.
By the way Timothy has run low 1:43, low 3:28 (3:29 last year) and 7:36.
What do you think Kerr´s and Jakob´s potentials are in the 800m?
And how do you come around Jakob´s 6.5 sec superiority in the 2 mile?
No.
Very close to 1:44.0 in this season
February v. September. Ingebrigtsen is an all-time great who clearly tends to the longer events. I don't say Kerr is the 1500m favorite for me right now, there are others who can win also in Paris. Just that his 800m/2M combo for me is some strong indication of something super fast (around 3:27.0).
How often did he run the 2 Miles in the last years?
How often did Jakob run it? And Jakob is still more than 6.5 sec faster than Kerr and with much less pacemaking.
It was Ingebrigtsen's 1st 2 Miles race ever. He has raced every season the 3000m. What could he have run with several attempts over the distance while in top shape? My point is not that the 8:00.67 is the greatest performance ever! For me it's just the combination of 1:45.94/8:00.67 in April/February which makes me wonder what he can do in the 1500m in the summer.
What do you think Kerr´s and Jakob´s potentials are in the 800m?
And how do you come around Jakob´s 6.5 sec superiority in the 2 mile?
No.
Very close to 1:44.0 in this season
February v. September. Ingebrigtsen is an all-time great who clearly tends to the longer events. I don't say Kerr is the 1500m favorite for me right now, there are others who can win also in Paris. Just that his 800m/2M combo for me is some strong indication of something super fast (around 3:27.0).
So you think that BOTH Kerr and Jakob can run "very close to 1:44 in this season"?
Jakob ran his 2 miles WB in early June 2023 (his second outdoor race).
Do you think Kerr could close the gap on 6.5 sec if he ran the 2 miles in early June this year?
Do you think Jakob could have run faster if he had run the 2 mile in Brüssel in September instead of the 2000m and with better pacing?
I think Jakob has the better 800m - 2 miles combo.
3000m : Jakob has only run to fast races (where has been going for a fast time) twice:
DL Rome 2020 and DL Eugene 2023. In DL Lausanne 2021 the weather was bad so the runners soon gave up running (and Jakob was exhausted after OG Tokyo)
The rest of his 3000m races has been in championships (mostly indoors) where Jakob has raced to win.
Finally:
I agree that Kerr - if he brings his high indoor level into the outdoor season - can do something fast due to his improved endurance. Perhaps he can dip under 3:28 in the 1500m.
February v. September. Ingebrigtsen is an all-time great who clearly tends to the longer events. I don't say Kerr is the 1500m favorite for me right now, there are others who can win also in Paris. Just that his 800m/2M combo for me is some strong indication of something super fast (around 3:27.0).
So you think that BOTH Kerr and Jakob can run "very close to 1:44 in this season"?
Jakob ran his 2 miles WB in early June 2023 (his second outdoor race).
Do you think Kerr could close the gap on 6.5 sec if he ran the 2 miles in early June this year?
Do you think Jakob could have run faster if he had run the 2 mile in Brüssel in September instead of the 2000m and with better pacing?
I think Jakob has the better 800m - 2 miles combo.
3000m : Jakob has only run to fast races (where has been going for a fast time) twice:
DL Rome 2020 and DL Eugene 2023. In DL Lausanne 2021 the weather was bad so the runners soon gave up running (and Jakob was exhausted after OG Tokyo)
The rest of his 3000m races has been in championships (mostly indoors) where Jakob has raced to win.
Finally:
I agree that Kerr - if he brings his high indoor level into the outdoor season - can do something fast due to his improved endurance. Perhaps he can dip under 3:28 in the 1500m.
No, Ingebrigtsen has no chance to come close to 1:44.0.
Yes, Ingebrigtsen's combo is worth more. But this is not my point. Kerr's combo is not achievable for Ingebrigtsen.
I don't know how close to their limit those two are with their 2M PB.
But I'm not talking about Ingebrigtsen at all here , just about Kerr's 1500m potential in the summer.
So you think that BOTH Kerr and Jakob can run "very close to 1:44 in this season"?
Jakob ran his 2 miles WB in early June 2023 (his second outdoor race).
Do you think Kerr could close the gap on 6.5 sec if he ran the 2 miles in early June this year?
Do you think Jakob could have run faster if he had run the 2 mile in Brüssel in September instead of the 2000m and with better pacing?
I think Jakob has the better 800m - 2 miles combo.
3000m : Jakob has only run to fast races (where has been going for a fast time) twice:
DL Rome 2020 and DL Eugene 2023. In DL Lausanne 2021 the weather was bad so the runners soon gave up running (and Jakob was exhausted after OG Tokyo)
The rest of his 3000m races has been in championships (mostly indoors) where Jakob has raced to win.
Finally:
I agree that Kerr - if he brings his high indoor level into the outdoor season - can do something fast due to his improved endurance. Perhaps he can dip under 3:28 in the 1500m.
No, Ingebrigtsen has no chance to come close to 1:44.0.
Yes, Ingebrigtsen's combo is worth more. But this is not my point. Kerr's combo is not achievable for Ingebrigtsen.
I don't know how close to their limit those two are with their 2M PB.
But I'm not talking about Ingebrigtsen at all here , just about Kerr's 1500m potential in the summer.
Are you aware that you only answered half of my question? You didn´t state what you think Jakob can run in the 800m?
Are you also aware that you have no arguments to support your opinions, including the opinion that Jakob can´t come close to 1:44 but Kerr can.
No, Ingebrigtsen has no chance to come close to 1:44.0.
Yes, Ingebrigtsen's combo is worth more. But this is not my point. Kerr's combo is not achievable for Ingebrigtsen.
I don't know how close to their limit those two are with their 2M PB.
But I'm not talking about Ingebrigtsen at all here , just about Kerr's 1500m potential in the summer.
Are you aware that you only answered half of my question? You didn´t state what you think Jakob can run in the 800m?
Are you also aware that you have no arguments to support your opinions, including the opinion that Jakob can´t come close to 1:44 but Kerr can.
No, I'm not aware of this.
I have not stated any opinion here.
I have given an assessment to Kerr's 1500m potential in the summer, not to Ingebrigtsen's.
Kerr's PB is 1.09 seconds better than Kerr's. Kerr has set his PB when his 1500m PB was 3:33.60. I'm pretty sure Kerr's main goal is to become 1500m Olympic champion. The final is on 6th of August. 1:45.94 3.5 months before that for me is a strong indication that he will (or can) run much faster later in the year. In combination with his great 8:00.67 just 2 months earlier I guess he might run super fast in his main event later in the year. This might be completely wrong - we just have to wait and see.
It was now the last time I have stated this here - maybe half of the readers of this thread now have understood the point.