Kenya and Ethiopia Olympic marathon team consideration - who should be chosen?

Aussiestatman wrote:

Will coop wrote:

So Kenya announced there provisional squad of 10 which doesn't really narrow it down other than the confusing nature of leaving off Chebet and Mutiso for men.

Men:

Eliud Kipchoge (Nike NN - Kaptagat)
Kelvin Kiptum (Nike - Chepkorio)
Vincent Ngetich (Asics Chojo - Iten)
Timothy Kiplagat (Rosa - Kaptagat)
Benson Kipruto (Adidas 2Running - Kapsabet)
Bernard Koech (Adidas Kaptagat - Patrick Sang maybe, trains w/. Kipchoge/Kamworor)
Geoffrey Kamworor (Nike NN Kaptagat)
Cyprian Kotut (Adidas 2Running - Kapsabet)
Amos Kipruto (Adidas 2Running - Kapsabet)
Titus Kipruto (Rosa - Kapsabet)

Out (for now):

Evans Chebet (Adidas 2Running - Kapsabet)

Alexander Mutiso (Adidas ND Software (Japan)/Ngong)

can't 100% confirm training notes but it gives some details, mostly GSC, Demadonna and Rosa

Women:

Ruth Chepngetich
Rosemary Wanjiru
Joyciline Jepkosgei
Sheila Chepkirui
Peres Jepchirchir
Judith Jeptum Korir
Selly Chepyego
Hellen Obiri
Sharon Lokedi
Brigid Kosgei

I don't think any of these women train together, maybe Kosgei and Jeptum though.

Would still go with Chebet but otherwise probably B.Kipruto for the 3rd place ahead of Kamworor

I want to see where Ngetich runs this spring

Will coop wrote:

With Kenya and Ethiopia seemingly unlikely to implement a trial race (although Ethiopia had a 35k trial last Olympics) it's interesting to consider who might be selected for the teams, arguably the best two teams in the marathoning world. Below I ranked who I thought was should be selected. Who would you pick?

Men

Kenya

1. Eliud Kipchoge
2. Kelvin Kiptum
3. Evans Chebet
4. Benson Kipruto
5. Geoffrey Kamworor
6. Alexander Mutiso - to race Valencia
7. Vincent Kipkemoi
8. Joshua Belet
9. Amos Kipruto
10. Bernard Koech

+ Wildcard - Kibiwott Kandie to race Valencia

If Chebet won NYC this autumn it would seem clearcut but his withdrawal (knee injury?) slightly changes things but I think he still deserves it as of now. Albert Korir or Edward Cheserek could win NYC and enter the list. Samwel Mailu races Frankfurt this weekend and some top guys could also enter the top-10 in Valencia with a big performance.

Ethiopia

1. Leul Gebresilasie - to race Valencia
2. Chalu Deso - to race Valencia
3. Tamirat Tola - to race NYC
4. Tadese Takele
5. Sissay Lemma - to race Valencia
6. Shura Kitata - to race NYC
7. Birhanu Legese
8. Andualem Belay
9. Mosinet Geremew
10. Tsegaye Getachew

+ Wildcard - Kenenisa Bekele - maybe racing Valencia?? After not being selected the past 2 Olympics will he get a spot here, you never know with Kenenisa

This was a bit difficult considering how some of the top guys from ~2019 have struggled/ been inconsistent in recent years. I have a few in there (Geremew, Kitata, Legese) as well as some new emerging forces like Takele and Belay. In the end I thought the top 3 are the most consistent. Could change considering many are planning on still racing this year including Jemal Yimer and Amedework Walelegn in NYC.

Women

Kenya

1. Peres Jepchirchir - to race NYC
2. Hellen Obiri - to race NYC
3. Ruth Chepngetich
4. Joyciline Jepkosgei
5. Brigid Kosgei - to race NYC
6. Sharon Lokedi - to race NYC
7. Sheila Chepkirui
8. Rosemary Wanjiru
9. Dorcas Tuitoek
10. Judith Korir

+ Wildcard - Jackline Chelal - won Seville in 2:20:29 after very few WA race results and no birthdate listed - to race Valencia. A lot could change in NYC, however, I feel at the moment the top three would create a team with good speed, experience and tactical race success.

Ethiopia

1. Amane Beriso
2. Tigst Assefa
3. Gotytom Gebresilasie
4. Alemu Megertu
5. Letesenbet Gidey - to race NYC
6. Yelemzerf Yahualaw
7. Meseret Belete
8. Tsehay Gemechu - to race Valencia
9. Genzebe Dibaba
10. Almaz Ayana - to race Valencia

Wildcard on the list but Gidey if she decides she wants to race the Olympic marathon however it seems she will only do track there?

Apologies for any errors like missing someone. Kenya seems likely to select their team at the end of the year while Ethiopia perhaps likely to wait until the spring season is through. We'll see how this plays out, any thoughts?

toughtask wrote:

I actually think the hardest team to narrow down is Ethiopian women. They have the world record holder and both of the cycle's world champions so you'd think it would be a slam dunk but I think it's probably the deepest group of the four!

Tigist Assefa - 2:15:37 Berlin 2022, 2:11:53 WR Berlin 2023 - I think she's a lock

Amane Beriso - 2:14:58 Valencia 2022, 2023 World Champ - also a lock

Gotytom Gebreslase - 2:18:18 Tokyo 2020 3rd, 2:18:11 2022 World Champ, 2023 World silver - proven championship performer but slowest of the top contenders and WC fields aren't as strong

Almaz Ayana - 2:17:20 Amsterdam 2022, 2:16:22 Valencia 2023 2nd - super fast but lost to Degefa and was 7th in London

Worknesh Degefa - 2:15:51 Valencia 2023 - 3rd fastest contender but only has one race in the cycle

Tsehay Gemechu - 2:16:56 Tokyo 2023 2nd - fast but DNF at Budapest and no wins recently

Megertu Alemu - 2:17:09 Chicago 2023 3rd, 2:18:37 London 2023 2nd, 2:18:32 London 2022 3rd, 2:18:51 Zurich 2022 - sub-2:19 podiums in last 4 marathons, very consistent, has beaten many of the other women she's competing against

Yalemzerf Yehualaw - 2:17:23 Hamburg 2022, 2:17:26 London 2022, 2:18:53 London 2023 5th - if selection was based off 2022 she'd be a lock but off the podium in London and Budapest make it difficult unless she has a good spring marathon

Of the 6 competing for the 3rd slot I think Gemechu and Yehualaw are the least likely to get it. They have the weakest current right now and would need a really good spring marathon. Degefa has had pretty much no bad marathons in her career but with only one race since 2020 selectors might want to see her back the Valencia win up with a major spring victory. The same is true of the rest. Megertu is probably the most likely of them to get left off but she's been incredibly consistent and might be the likeliest to podium. At the moment I think Gebreslase and Degefa have the best chance but at the end of the day it will probably come down to who has the best spring marathon.

toughtask wrote:

I actually think the hardest team to narrow down is Ethiopian women. They have the world record holder and both of the cycle's world champions so you'd think it would be a slam dunk but I think it's probably the deepest group of the four!

Tigist Assefa - 2:15:37 Berlin 2022, 2:11:53 WR Berlin 2023 - I think she's a lock

Amane Beriso - 2:14:58 Valencia 2022, 2023 World Champ - also a lock

Gotytom Gebreslase - 2:18:18 Tokyo 2020 3rd, 2:18:11 2022 World Champ, 2023 World silver - proven championship performer but slowest of the top contenders and WC fields aren't as strong

Almaz Ayana - 2:17:20 Amsterdam 2022, 2:16:22 Valencia 2023 2nd - super fast but lost to Degefa and was 7th in London

Worknesh Degefa - 2:15:51 Valencia 2023 - 3rd fastest contender but only has one race in the cycle

Tsehay Gemechu - 2:16:56 Tokyo 2023 2nd - fast but DNF at Budapest and no wins recently

Megertu Alemu - 2:17:09 Chicago 2023 3rd, 2:18:37 London 2023 2nd, 2:18:32 London 2022 3rd, 2:18:51 Zurich 2022 - sub-2:19 podiums in last 4 marathons, very consistent, has beaten many of the other women she's competing against

Yalemzerf Yehualaw - 2:17:23 Hamburg 2022, 2:17:26 London 2022, 2:18:53 London 2023 5th - if selection was based off 2022 she'd be a lock but off the podium in London and Budapest make it difficult unless she has a good spring marathon

Of the 6 competing for the 3rd slot I think Gemechu and Yehualaw are the least likely to get it. They have the weakest current right now and would need a really good spring marathon. Degefa has had pretty much no bad marathons in her career but with only one race since 2020 selectors might want to see her back the Valencia win up with a major spring victory. The same is true of the rest. Megertu is probably the most likely of them to get left off but she's been incredibly consistent and might be the likeliest to podium. At the moment I think Gebreslase and Degefa have the best chance but at the end of the day it will probably come down to who has the best spring marathon.

toughtask wrote:

I actually think the hardest team to narrow down is Ethiopian women. They have the world record holder and both of the cycle's world champions so you'd think it would be a slam dunk but I think it's probably the deepest group of the four!

Tigist Assefa - 2:15:37 Berlin 2022, 2:11:53 WR Berlin 2023 - I think she's a lock

Amane Beriso - 2:14:58 Valencia 2022, 2023 World Champ - also a lock

Gotytom Gebreslase - 2:18:18 Tokyo 2020 3rd, 2:18:11 2022 World Champ, 2023 World silver - proven championship performer but slowest of the top contenders and WC fields aren't as strong

Almaz Ayana - 2:17:20 Amsterdam 2022, 2:16:22 Valencia 2023 2nd - super fast but lost to Degefa and was 7th in London

Worknesh Degefa - 2:15:51 Valencia 2023 - 3rd fastest contender but only has one race in the cycle

Tsehay Gemechu - 2:16:56 Tokyo 2023 2nd - fast but DNF at Budapest and no wins recently

Megertu Alemu - 2:17:09 Chicago 2023 3rd, 2:18:37 London 2023 2nd, 2:18:32 London 2022 3rd, 2:18:51 Zurich 2022 - sub-2:19 podiums in last 4 marathons, very consistent, has beaten many of the other women she's competing against

Yalemzerf Yehualaw - 2:17:23 Hamburg 2022, 2:17:26 London 2022, 2:18:53 London 2023 5th - if selection was based off 2022 she'd be a lock but off the podium in London and Budapest make it difficult unless she has a good spring marathon

Of the 6 competing for the 3rd slot I think Gemechu and Yehualaw are the least likely to get it. They have the weakest current right now and would need a really good spring marathon. Degefa has had pretty much no bad marathons in her career but with only one race since 2020 selectors might want to see her back the Valencia win up with a major spring victory. The same is true of the rest. Megertu is probably the most likely of them to get left off but she's been incredibly consistent and might be the likeliest to podium. At the moment I think Gebreslase and Degefa have the best chance but at the end of the day it will probably come down to who has the best spring marathon.

Aussiestatman wrote:

toughtask wrote:

I actually think the hardest team to narrow down is Ethiopian women. They have the world record holder and both of the cycle's world champions so you'd think it would be a slam dunk but I think it's probably the deepest group of the four!

Tigist Assefa - 2:15:37 Berlin 2022, 2:11:53 WR Berlin 2023 - I think she's a lock

Amane Beriso - 2:14:58 Valencia 2022, 2023 World Champ - also a lock

Gotytom Gebreslase - 2:18:18 Tokyo 2020 3rd, 2:18:11 2022 World Champ, 2023 World silver - proven championship performer but slowest of the top contenders and WC fields aren't as strong

Almaz Ayana - 2:17:20 Amsterdam 2022, 2:16:22 Valencia 2023 2nd - super fast but lost to Degefa and was 7th in London

Worknesh Degefa - 2:15:51 Valencia 2023 - 3rd fastest contender but only has one race in the cycle

Tsehay Gemechu - 2:16:56 Tokyo 2023 2nd - fast but DNF at Budapest and no wins recently

Megertu Alemu - 2:17:09 Chicago 2023 3rd, 2:18:37 London 2023 2nd, 2:18:32 London 2022 3rd, 2:18:51 Zurich 2022 - sub-2:19 podiums in last 4 marathons, very consistent, has beaten many of the other women she's competing against

Yalemzerf Yehualaw - 2:17:23 Hamburg 2022, 2:17:26 London 2022, 2:18:53 London 2023 5th - if selection was based off 2022 she'd be a lock but off the podium in London and Budapest make it difficult unless she has a good spring marathon

Of the 6 competing for the 3rd slot I think Gemechu and Yehualaw are the least likely to get it. They have the weakest current right now and would need a really good spring marathon. Degefa has had pretty much no bad marathons in her career but with only one race since 2020 selectors might want to see her back the Valencia win up with a major spring victory. The same is true of the rest. Megertu is probably the most likely of them to get left off but she's been incredibly consistent and might be the likeliest to podium. At the moment I think Gebreslase and Degefa have the best chance but at the end of the day it will probably come down to who has the best spring marathon.

I appreciate your research and wisdom. As you say, spring marathons are the qualifiers. Yehualaw has won London before, could bounce back and do it again. Sutume had a brave half in Houston, could she convert that into a battle at the front in Tokyo. Supposedly Gotytom only needs a top 3 in Nagoya and possibly only one competitor to challenge her if she had a good day. I have said elsewhere that the most pressure could be on the WR holder to perform away from the one course she must love so much. What happens next if Teferi finishes Boston ahead of Degefa? Great times to be a fan.