Captain Geetch wrote:
I predict that spending 2023 watching a North Rockland team with two 180+ sophs and a nicely developing young supporting cast annoy the top four or five teams all season will make the 2024 NY predictions a lot easier.
They are ranked 15th on Tully Runners, but based on how the track season went, and how much depth was developed on the team, I think they will do much better than that this year. This year they will only have one senior, and next year they will be very good
There are 5 boys teams projected within 40 points of the top, which should make for an exciting season. St Anthony's and Fairport have shown solid track performances... Auburn has had at least one of their back-end guys step up and should have a good #1 in Howard (based on his 4:18 mile)... Saratoga has great depth... the group isn't out of range of teams like Corning and NR and a few other teams, too.
NY XC wrote:
There are 5 boys teams projected within 40 points of the top, which should make for an exciting season. St Anthony's and Fairport have shown solid track performances... Auburn has had at least one of their back-end guys step up and should have a good #1 in Howard (based on his 4:18 mile)... Saratoga has great depth... the group isn't out of range of teams like Corning and NR and a few other teams, too.
Corning and North Rockland are likely going to be the youngest teams of the top teams in the state.
For 2024, Saratoga Springs boys team returns 3 guys who have already run a Speed rating above 160. Bernd, D Pasek, and Blaisdell.
And also the younger Pasek (who scored for them at VVS and is an incoming freshman) and 2 more guys who have already run a sub-4:50.
It will also be interesting to see how Monroe Woodbury does the next 2 years. Last year they had some varsity guys drop so much time from 2021. One guy dropped his 5k time from 20s to in 2021 to 16s in 2022.
Last year they had 3 varsity seniors but this year there is looking to be only 1 senior
One thing that makes it unsurprising that Fairport is #1 on the TullyRunners rankings is that they won the McQuaid invite, and they return 4 of their top 6 from that race
Yes, Corning did have some guys in the different race at McQuaid, but they lost a huge senior class so they aren’t where they were last year
Auburn has a good sophomore-and-under class
Gasper - 9:52 3200 - 10
Maher - 10:11 3200 - 10
Ringwood - 10:27 3200 - 9
Wilbur - 5:00 1600 - 10
Fairport sophomore class:
Bubel - 4:26 / 9:33 - 10
Hill - 17:16 5k (no track results) - 10
Leombrone - 10:33 - 10
Green - 10:39 / 17:59 5k- 10
Hickey - 2:05 800 / 17:55 5k - 10
No New York boys teams in the top 32
Megous wrote:
NY girls teams on TullyRunners
Saratoga - 5
Bethlehem - 22
I think this is the first time that FM isn’t ranked nationally in the preseason rankings for girls
I don't think they were ranked in 2004 or 2005, FWIW.
Yenekk wrote:
No New York boys teams in the top 32
That's not surprising at all. Corning was 10th at NXN, but graduated everybody. St Anthony's was DFL at NXN and graduated some guys. MW lost their top guys. FM isn't going to be ranked on pedigree anymore. Nobody else stands out. No big deal... I think Auburn and St A's will be more than respectable by season's end.
10 Of The Best Junior Girls Talents To Watch In XC
5. Zariel Macchia
William Floyd (NY)
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Macchia is a machine.
The New Yorker won six races through her cross country season, including a New York State Class A title in 18:02.60, before claiming a third-place finish at the Champs Northeast Regional, a runner-up finish at the Garmin RunningLane Cross Country Championships and a sixth-place finish at the Champs National XC Championships.
What's more, Macchia then proceeded to qualify for the U.S. U20 XC team and then was top 20 at the World U20 XC Championships in Bathurst, Australia.
Again, Macchia is a machine.
Outdoors, she ran 59.47 seconds in the 400m, she clocked a 1,500m PR of 4:25.02 and a mile best of 4:47.16 and then she clocked times of 9:35.82 in the 3K and 16:17.29 in the 5K at Nike Outdoor Nationals.
Zariel Macchia has been selected to join a very exclusive group of 40,of the top underclassmen, across all the disciplines ( sprints and hurdles, jumps, weights and mid and long distsnces) assembling at Nike World Headquarters, this week. It’s called the Nike Elite High Performance Project powered by NSAF….mentorship, opportunity, equipment, gear, etc. coaching is NOT involved…these kids have gotten to their “ elite” level by coaching, parents, etc…this will provide all the opportunities these kids need to reach their goals. This list of kids is impressive.
The Top 10 Sophomore Boys To Watch This XC Season
10. Ryan Tuohy
North Rockland (NY)
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This is somewhat of a projection, considering Tuohy's returning 5K time of 16:07.00 puts him just inside the top 75 performers for his class from last year.
But how can you argue? He's the brother of Katelyn Tuohy, the greatest cross country athlete we've ever seen on the girls side. Ryan Tuohy's freshman season was very good, too, with a win at the Section 1 Championship, a top 10 finish at the Six Flags Wild Safari Invite and a top 30 finishes at states and the federation championships.
rezun wrote:
NY team rankings
Boys1- Fairport
2- St. Anthony’s
3- SaratogaGirls1- Saratoga - 70
2- Bethlehem - 150
3- FM - 240
Bethlehem is far ahead of FM here
I really have no faith in Fairport. They never seem to perform as well as their returners suggest and they don’t have a big gap on Saratoga and St. Anthony’s. I think those are the clear favorites. Auburn is also looking good and Corning improved a lot during track (not enough though) and are a perennial power so that’s my top 4. Could be wrong though.
my two pennies wrote:
I really have no faith in Fairport. They never seem to perform as well as their returners suggest and they don’t have a big gap on Saratoga and St. Anthony’s. I think those are the clear favorites. Auburn is also looking good and Corning improved a lot during track (not enough though) and are a perennial power so that’s my top 4. Could be wrong though.
Fairport won the McQuaid invitational last year (over Corning), and they return 4 of their top 6 from that group, and also a 9:33 3200 incoming sophomore. I don’t think they are clear favorites, but I wouldn’t count them out for getting in the top 2 at NXR.
Corning lost 5 varsity guys but is returning 4 sub-10 guys + incoming sophomore Warner who ran a 4:43 1600 but hasn’t done XC yet.
Is Warner doing XC this year?
If so, they will be in the mix to possibly qualify for NXN.
Bethlehem returns 5 girls with Speed ratings over 113.
FM girls team returners
151, 122, 119, 97, 88, 83, 69
Bethlehem girls team returners
130, 119, 118, 116, 114, 99, 85
FM has a better 1-3 than Bethlehem, but Bethlehem is better at the lower positions.
For the FM girls team to make NXN, they will need their 4&5 to step up
Psild wrote:
No idea about Warner, I agree they need him to be truly competitive but they have a couple options at #5 (Kahabka 155 rating and Ferratella 10:30s for 3200).
Fairport usually throws down a pretty good McQuaid performance. My issue with them is they always seem to peak in September/October and get crushed at states and regionals. 2017 is a great example; came in ranked #1 in Class A, #2 in the Fed, with a similar gap on the field. Ended up placing 5th at states and 7th at NXR.
Even last year, while Corning and St. Anthony's got better throughout the season, Fairport's season-best was that McQuaid race. They finished 4th at states and 6th at NXR in a weak field. They seriously need to step it up at the big races to compete for a spot. I would really like to see them get out of the section during the season (they never go to Pre-States, Bowdoin Classic, or Manhattan). If they don't I predict they will falter at the championship again.
Saratoga has a bit of a history of the same thing (always looking really good at SPAC meets before flaming out at states) but given their improvements in track I expect them to be better than Fairport.
my two pennies wrote:
Saratoga has a bit of a history of the same thing (always looking really good at SPAC meets before flaming out at states) but given their improvements in track I expect them to be better than Fairport.
Saratoga boys team got 5th at NXR last year though. Seems pretty good for the kind of talent they had last year.
