Could Kipchoge run a sub 4 min mile right now with specific training ?

Peach Pit wrote:

Shtuka wrote:

Let's take 2:01:09. That's 4:37.4 per mile. Let's say the question is if he could run 3:59.0 for a single mile. That would require his MarathonPace to be 16.1% slower than MilePace (In the sense that 4:37/3:59 = 1.16). What would this look like for some other times?

3:59 ---> 4:37 (~2:01)

4:10 ---> 4:50 (~2:06:30)

4:20 ---> 5:02 (~2:11:30)

4:30 ---> 5:13.5 (~2:17)

4:40 ---> 5:25 (~2:22)

4:50 ---> 5:37 (~2:27)

5:00 ---> 5:48 (~2:32)

So, asking if Eliud can run 3:59 right away in his marathon buildup / peak is (at least on raw mathematical analogy) equates to asking runners in the parenthetical marathon shape if they can run the corresponding mile time.

To believe that Eliud could *not* run 3:59.0 suggests the existence of 2:32 runners who can't break 5, 2:22 runners who top out at 4:4x in their marathon buildup, 2:17 runners who can't get under 4:30, 2:11:30 above 4:20, and so on.

I have no idea what Chepngetich, Kosgei, etc are capable of in the mile. Ruth opened in 15:11 (4:53.8/mile), so I'm not convinced she couldn't crack 4:30... Connor Mantz just ran 2:08, could he run 4:15 or so? That's 13:10 5k pace, so seems like even in his marathon buildup he wouldn't be out of shot of it.

Could you run 2:07 and fail to be able to break 4:10 on that day? Perhaps.

Now of course Eliud's endurance is likely to be prodigious compared to any mortal, so it's possible these comparisons break down at top end. Still, perhaps people with experience in the 2:10-2:25 range can report some anecdotal data: e.g. Did anyone ever run 2:17 on a day they couldn't crack 4:30?

This is a great post. From a little bit of searching, there's not many guys who have run sub-4 at Kipchoge's age. Some of the best milers of all time ran their last sub-4 at: Nick Willis (38), Steve Scott (36), Coghlan (41, oldest), John Walker (38), and Anthony Whiteman (never heard of this guy but he ran 3:58 at age 40 and was a 2x Olympian).

Kipchoge is obscenely talented, but I'd bet there's less than 20 people ever who have run under 4:00 at his age after training for the mile specifically for 20 years. Saying he could do it after training specifically for them marathon for a decade seems like a stretch to me.

runfrancisco wrote:

In the leadup to the sub 2 project, he did do some speed work faster than sub 4 mile pace. I'd be shocked if he couldn't do it.

From sweatelite as mentioned by EK's coach Sang:

sweatelite wrote:

10-15km of interval work faster than goal marathon pace.
These are completed at speeds faster than marathon pace. Sometimes at more like 800m pace!
Example workouts:
12x800m in 2:10s (90sec rest), 10x400m in 62s (90sec rest).
1200m in 3:25, jog lap, 5x1km in 2:55 (1.30 rec), jog lap, 3x300m in 42-40 (1:00 rec), jog lap, 2x200m in 27s (1:00 rec)
20x400m in 64-65sec (50sec rest)

His last 200m in Paris 2003 was ~26.35 with a last 100m in ~13.04 at around 218spm, with a step length of 6'11". If he's been recently doing 13.5s per 100m (the two 27s 200m), he's probably in the range of 218spm & 6'8" or 6'11" & 210.5spm (or some combination in between) based on his stride history, so per my previous post, a 198spm & 6'8" for 4 minutes really shouldn't be a problem for this guy, especially if he's done 3x300m in 40s (13.33s per 100m).

There have been sub 60s last 400m in the end of marathon races (I think I remember 57s but can't find it), and supposedly a sub 27 last 200m (Desisa in 2013 Dubai), so I'm guessing EK has trained for that possibility, if it's a slower race.

here is the correct answer wrote:

Peach Pit wrote:

Yeah, but it seems too far to me. The easiest way to change my mind would be to show me literally anyone placed top 3 in a WMM and at any point afterwards ran a sub-4 mile.

The best argument I can come up with off the top of my head is Rupp. He got bronze in the marathon right after finishing the 10k 3 seconds behind Farah, who ran his last 1600 in 4:00.3. Even then, Rupp was 30 and never stopped doing real speedwork, compared to Kipchoge who's 37 and probably hasn't done speedwork in 10 years.

Close. Farah himself is actually the relevant comparison.

He ran 3:28 in both 2013 and 2015 (no 1500s in 2014), and then 3:31 and 3:34 in 2016 in 2017. These are all 10+ seconds under 4:00 mile conversations. (OK, 3:34 is 3:50-3:51.)

Meanwhile, in the marathon, he was running 2:05 in 2018 and 2019.

How the H*LL is anyone going to say Farah was in 3:34/3:50 1500/mile shape and also ran a 2:05 marathon, all within 1.5 years 2017-2018, but 2:01 Kipchoge couldn't come within 10 seconds of him??

Of course Kipchoge could do this.

Shtuka wrote:

Let's take 2:01:09. That's 4:37.4 per mile. Let's say the question is if he could run 3:59.0 for a single mile. That would require his MarathonPace to be 16.1% slower than MilePace (In the sense that 4:37/3:59 = 1.16). What would this look like for some other times?

3:59 ---> 4:37 (~2:01)

4:10 ---> 4:50 (~2:06:30)

4:20 ---> 5:02 (~2:11:30)

4:30 ---> 5:13.5 (~2:17)

4:40 ---> 5:25 (~2:22)

4:50 ---> 5:37 (~2:27)

5:00 ---> 5:48 (~2:32)

So, asking if Eliud can run 3:59 right away in his marathon buildup / peak is (at least on raw mathematical analogy) equates to asking runners in the parenthetical marathon shape if they can run the corresponding mile time.

To believe that Eliud could *not* run 3:59.0 suggests the existence of 2:32 runners who can't break 5, 2:22 runners who top out at 4:4x in their marathon buildup, 2:17 runners who can't get under 4:30, 2:11:30 above 4:20, and so on.

I have no idea what Chepngetich, Kosgei, etc are capable of in the mile. Ruth opened in 15:11 (4:53.8/mile), so I'm not convinced she couldn't crack 4:30... Connor Mantz just ran 2:08, could he run 4:15 or so? That's 13:10 5k pace, so seems like even in his marathon buildup he wouldn't be out of shot of it.

Could you run 2:07 and fail to be able to break 4:10 on that day? Perhaps.

Now of course Eliud's endurance is likely to be prodigious compared to any mortal, so it's possible these comparisons break down at top end. Still, perhaps people with experience in the 2:10-2:25 range can report some anecdotal data: e.g. Did anyone ever run 2:17 on a day they couldn't crack 4:30?

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Wise Old Man wrote:

As always with you, very reasonable and well informed. Is there a method/formula to your estimated change in pace 3k to 10k and does it differ for him than what you would assign to Fisher or even Jakob? I’m not talking the absolute pace and time, but the drop off as the distance increases. With his epic motor, I feel like if he can sustain a pace for 3k he might be able to hold very close to it for 5k. Maybe 2:35x per k and still under 13 min.

Honestly no method/formula, just speculation based only on years of stats-geeking. I do predict his pace to decline less steeply all the way from 1500 to marathon than your typical world class 3k/5k guy. If Fisher could run 7:27.0 and slow down by 3.0”/K, he’d run 12:40.0. If Ingebrigtsen could run 7:24.0 and slow down 3”/K, he’d run 12:35.0. If Komen could run 7:20.67 and slow down 3”/K, he’d run 12:29.5. For most 3k-5k elites, we’d expect more like 4”-5”/K differential from 3k to 5k pace.

Seems doubtful to me that he could still break 13:00 for 5k. In 2012, his last season on the track, he raced in one of the fastest 5ks ever in Paris and ran 12:55 for 8th, against a 12:46 winning time. He’s aged extremely well of course, but he’s probably still lost more than a few seconds over 5k in ten years of marathon training and from age 27 to 37.

Video:m.youtube.com/watch?v=tAEtHwH-Phc

well,,, wrote:

Wise Old Man wrote:

This is beyond funny. You think a guy who ran 12:46 back in the day, and just now ran 2:01:09 would not have been a better 10K runner than Fisher or Rupp if he focused on that event? I would expect Kipchoge to be just a bit off Bekele at his peak. He’s certainly a 26:25 talent in the 10k. Don’t get all literal on me and say his pr is slower than Rupp’s or Fisher’s . You have a top 10 5000 meter talent of all time (how about sub 12:40 in super shoes) and the marathon goat by a wide margin, and you think magically he just happens to have sucked at the 10?

Paula Radcliffe was probably the best 10k runner in the world in the early 2000s, but she had absolutely no kick at all, so she wouldn´t win any championships. When she switched to the marathon, she lost most of her 10k capacity. She ran the 10k in the 2003WC and finished 10th, I believe. One week later she absolutely crushed the others in the marathon.