You give such a detailed analysis and mine is so superficial, but the conclusions are the same. Jakob is going to win the 1500, easily. The 5000, wow, I’ll take the field against Jakob, but I’m rooting for him to pull it off.
Envisioning WC 1500 gold being "easy money" for JI vs. peak Tim, peak Kerr and a dialed-in Kipsang is a cute stretch. A more likely distance double will come from Jacob, not Jakob.
Jacob Kiplimo? The guy who has not run an outdoor race yet and keeps pulling out of DLs. Pretty clear he is injured at this point. He may run, I have no idea, but I certainly wouldnt bet on him beating some of the strongest fields ever assembled at 5/10 back to back.
Is it common? Is it knowledge? Among common fans, there is common belief, but not so much knowledge.
Even then, how common is the belief? It wasn't too long ago that the informed population of letsrun readers responded to a "which records are doped" survey, and the "common belief" among these responders was that only 57% believed that El G's records were doped. Or alternatively, a whopping 43% of informed fans believed El G's records were clean.
It's also a common belief that EPO can actually deliver faster 1500m/mile performances, despite the small number of such fast performances during the EPO era. Pre-EPO era athletes like Cram and Coe still remain competitive today -- Jakob Ingebrigtsen did not beat Cram's 3:46.32 from 1985 -- despite three decades of EPO availability and alleged ease, even today, of beating the EPO tests and the ABP, not to mention improvements in shoes and tracks.
What are you talking about? The four men other than Cram who have ran faster than Jakob did last night, all ran their times in a six year period at the height of the full throttle EPO era.
But I guess you're respond with your analysis that showed that the average mile times of Peru and anatartica did not improve during the EPO era, therefore EPO doesn't work.
What am I talking about? The extremely small quantity.
While you seem to be impressed with the timing, you also say "four men". Four is a very small number, over a period spanning 37 years.
But I hear someone say, this is the mile -- it's smarter to look at 1500m because hardly anyone runs the mile anymore.
When I looked (back in 2018), that same quantity worldwide was 25, spread out pretty evenly between the 22 years of 1995-2017, with no obvious peak, and even a slight increase in the rate after El G's retirement, and subsequent improvements in testing.
25 is bigger than 4, but it is still a small number, over a period spanning 33 years, including 28 years of EPO.
For comparison, 5000m was 112, 10000m was 111, and the marathon was 201, and the shorter 800m was 3 - a clear upward trend coinciding with the race distance.
However, when Sunday Times published "suspicious" blood statistics, the trend from 1500m to the marathon was reversed -- a clear downward trend with fewer medals won, the longer the distance, from athletes with "suspicious" samples.
These were not confined to countries like Peru or Antarctica, but global statistics.
This data suggests your attempted correlation of 4 samples is spurious.
Great accomplishment. I’ve seen five better runners in my lifetime. Seb Coe, Ovett, Cram, Couglin, and Scott. Jakob would get absolutely smoked by the first three who are 4 to 5 seconds faster for 800 meters with old shoe technology. No chance gets out kicked. Indoors no contest. Couglin wins. Scott ran 3:47 in 1982. All these guys were racing each other. It was the golden era of mens middle distance running. Honestly, Jakob doesn’t make the podium in the Olympics in that era. If he had to run with old shoes he wouldn’t even break 3:52. He isn’t in the same league as the greats from the 1980s. Keeping it real.
Envisioning WC 1500 gold being "easy money" for JI vs. peak Tim, peak Kerr and a dialed-in Kipsang is a cute stretch. A more likely distance double will come from Jacob, not Jakob.
You haven’t been paying attention this summer. Unless Jakob gets hurt in the next month I’d say it’s 99:1 he wins the 1500. Yes, on paper there are several others who might challenge him, but in reality this summer, no, he wins easily. The 5000 on the other hand is wide open. Jakob has an excellent chance, but it’s going to be a tough win.
Envisioning WC 1500 gold being "easy money" for JI vs. peak Tim, peak Kerr and a dialed-in Kipsang is a cute stretch. A more likely distance double will come from Jacob, not Jakob.
Jacob Kiplimo? The guy who has not run an outdoor race yet and keeps pulling out of DLs. Pretty clear he is injured at this point. He may run, I have no idea, but I certainly wouldnt bet on him beating some of the strongest fields ever assembled at 5/10 back to back.
Also no idea if we're getting peak Kerr. He's run like crap this outdoor season, and hasn't run against real competition aside from Birmingham. We'll see at British Trials. Peak Tim? Also a mystery as he's deferred to Jakob at Pre, and Kipsang/others outkicked him in Kenya (though maybe he wasn't going all-out), and then Kipsang beat him in Doga. Tefera and Kipsang have the surer food, but not sure they're beating Jakob unless they both take another jump forward or Jakob has a bad day.
I'm a little puzzled how a 1.47 runner over the 800 can run a 3.46 mile a week later. How is it that the fastest 1500/milers now are frequently utterly pedestrian over the 800?
I'm a little puzzled how a 1.47 runner over the 800 can run a 3.46 mile a week later. How is it that the fastest 1500/milers now are frequently utterly pedestrian over the 800?
I give Jakob an excellent chance at the double. He is in superb form and will be even better next month. Kipsang has raced himself out of it--or at least so it looks right now. Too many races in too many places. Jakob showed himself capable of sinking anyone even in a quick race in the 5000m last year when he ran 12:48. 1500m guys have had excellent luck in championship 5000m races, ranging from Aouita in 1984 (skipped the 1500m, took 5000m gold) to Niyangabo, El Guerrouj in 2004, and Lagat in 2007. Their only chance would be with a slow race and a 51 second close. Neither Jakob, nor Tim will allow the 1500m to be slow enough for the kickers to figure too highly. But of course this is all health permitting.
I don’t think Kipsang is actually in much trouble at all. He raced a lot but he’ll rest to Kenyan nationals and then to Worlds. But tactically I’d favor Jakob, and fitness-wise edge to Jakob as well. Kipsang drifts and loses focus at times. Him vs Hoare/Kerr is the more apt Q. Tim is the big variable because when healthy he was better than Jakob’s current level. But if he’s scared to go hard at the start or kick at the finish he’s not going to beat Jakob as a tentative runner.
The 5,000 is the harder part of the double though. You say they need a 51-second close? I think a 53-54 close beats Jakob with a 13-low last 100. Kimeli just did 13.1 in a 12:46 race. Edris’ final 100 is amazing and has dispatched Mo/Barega. Cheptegei has shown he can time his finishes to perfection. Ahmed is not to be underestimated. Bekele showed me something today with how smoothly he turned back everyone. Jakob beating Gebrhiwet who was 4 days removed from not making the Ethiopian 10,000 team doesn’t mean to me he can necessarily hold off/outkick the best East Africans when they will be fresher than him. He could but they will be better and being a 1500m runner doesn’t mean you are always the fastest finisher.
Jakob closed a 13:02 race in 53 when he was 18 years old. Winning the 5k won’t be easy but it’s not like he doesn’t have the wheels to do it.
I also enjoy looking at my times on a warped pavement track near my local high school where the inside lane has been covered by grass some years back and nobody can quite find it in one corner. The markings are faded so we run laps to the crack. There's a big divot in lane 1 on the first turn, and there may be an elevation gain / loss of +1-1 around it.
Very exciting stuff.
I reckon that you put me in spikes on a super mondo track and I'll convert my 5:00 mile to a 3:45. Watch out Jacob!
Jakob closed a 13:02 race in 53 when he was 18 years old. Winning the 5k won’t be easy but it’s not like he doesn’t have the wheels to do it.
Yes I've seen the race, which he lost by the way with a 53-second close beating out his 53.6 from the front. He has the wheels to be competitive, but there's no sure thing he rolls by/holds off much stronger competition who won't have the 1500 in their legs. Also, it has the potential to be a fierce battle to be at the lead with 400m to go between him, Aregawi, Cheptegei and Kejelcha. A more patient runner with a kick like Kimeli, Krop, Ahmed, Bekele, Scott, Fisher or Edris may stand to benefit. It's an absolutely loaded race and it's not a knock on him or anyone else to think it is no guarantee they win or medal.
Faster than Webb barely Webb ran 3:46.91 So a little less than half second difference between the 2 in the mile.
The big diff with Webb was that it was an artificial time trial, with pacers thru 1200m. He didn't have to worry about actually racing, no one else was even close after the first half lap. Also he'd been targeting the US record for awhile, his manager could wait and organize the race pretty much whenever Webb was fittest and the weather ideal.
Jakob's final pacer dropped out at maybe 900m? and he had Hoare and Wightman on his tail into the last lap. Jakob is 21, Webb set his record i think at age 24, Cram's Euro record set at 25. I guess Jakob also had those racing lights (do the top runners even watch them?) and better shoes.
I'm a little puzzled how a 1.47 runner over the 800 can run a 3.46 mile a week later. How is it that the fastest 1500/milers now are frequently utterly pedestrian over the 800?
For those born the past 30 years or so, it’s common knowledge that ElGuerrouj was most likely hitting the EPO pretty hard during his world record runs. Same with Ngeny, Komen, etc. All just about the time Miguel Indurain was doing his 510 W for an hour on the bike.
There was an IAAF proposal at one point to expunge all world records set prior to the year 2000 when EPO and another advanced testing came into existence. Probably would’ve been a real good idea. EPO>PEBA shoes.
If all the records pre 2000 were wiped here is what the books would look like:
1500m: 3:26.12 El Guerrouj, 2001
Mile: 3:44.95 El Guerrouj, 2001
Not exactly a crazy change. Was EPO testing ever done on Guerrouj? If so he didn't get that much slower it seems
I'm a little puzzled how a 1.47 runner over the 800 can run a 3.46 mile a week later. How is it that the fastest 1500/milers now are frequently utterly pedestrian over the 800?
He's the perfect example of a 1500/5000 meter runner. And no doubt he could run faster than 1:47 if that is what he focused on.
Look at El G. Best miler ever and his 800 meter PR is 1:47 but he ran 12:50 for 5000. They are both prototypical 1500/5000 runners. Lagat too.