Official 2022 USA World Cup Qualifying thread

rojo wrote:

Two ties or one win and we're in. Even one tie and we are almost certain to clinch 4th which isn't insignificant as the playoff is 1 game against the Oceania winner which is likely to be New Zealand. They are ranked 111th in the world.

Even if we lose both games we would still be 4th as long as Panama doesn't beat Canada. Of course, Panama would have everything to play for at home (and Canada nothing to play for).

But it's hard to feel super confident. I mean does anyone remember last time what happened? Or even this time when we were losing to Honduras and pepi saved the day or when we fell behind costa rica 1-0 in first minute. Thanks God we came back in both of those.

For my heart, I pray we get an early goal against Panama. Lord help me, if they score early.

MeHereYouWhere?! wrote:

rojo wrote:

Two ties or one win and we're in. Even one tie and we are almost certain to clinch 4th which isn't insignificant as the playoff is 1 game against the Oceania winner which is likely to be New Zealand. They are ranked 111th in the world.

Even if we lose both games we would still be 4th as long as Panama doesn't beat Canada. Of course, Panama would have everything to play for at home (and Canada nothing to play for).

But it's hard to feel super confident. I mean does anyone remember last time what happened? Or even this time when we were losing to Honduras and pepi saved the day or when we fell behind costa rica 1-0 in first minute. Thanks God we came back in both of those.

For my heart, I pray we get an early goal against Panama. Lord help me, if they score early.

A lot of scenarios still out there, but for the US it's basically "Beat Panama and you are in". There is maybe a .1% percent of a chance the US goes to the playoff if they beat Panama.

If both the US and Costa Rica win on Sunday, Costa Rica would have to beat the US by a ridiculous goal margin (As of now, the US is ahead by 7 goals). The US never plays well in Costa Rica, but Costa Rica isn't beating the US by 7 goals. Even the second tiebreaker, total goals scored, is going to be really, really difficult for CR to overcome as right now the US has 16 and CR has 9.

Costa Rica BARELY survived El Salvador at home in their first meeting. It's really, really, really hard to win on the road in CONCACAF. Like it might be tougher than any other qualifying region in FIFA.

The US will know shortly after kickoff in Orlando on Sunday what the result of the CR/El Sal game is, as it kicks off almost 2 hours before the US-Panama game.

johnny99 wrote:

MeHereYouWhere?! wrote:

A lot of scenarios still out there, but for the US it's basically "Beat Panama and you are in". There is maybe a .1% percent of a chance the US goes to the playoff if they beat Panama.

If both the US and Costa Rica win on Sunday, Costa Rica would have to beat the US by a ridiculous goal margin (As of now, the US is ahead by 7 goals). The US never plays well in Costa Rica, but Costa Rica isn't beating the US by 7 goals. Even the second tiebreaker, total goals scored, is going to be really, really difficult for CR to overcome as right now the US has 16 and CR has 9.

Costa Rica BARELY survived El Salvador at home in their first meeting. It's really, really, really hard to win on the road in CONCACAF. Like it might be tougher than any other qualifying region in FIFA.

The US will know shortly after kickoff in Orlando on Sunday what the result of the CR/El Sal game is, as it kicks off almost 2 hours before the US-Panama game.

If we're 3 points up on CR going into the last game, CR will have to beat us by 4, not 7, to overtake us on goal difference. Still a longshot, but not as much of a longshot.

Sunday will be nerve wracking, at least until we get up by 2 or 3 goals.

johnny99 wrote:

gbusios wrote:

I’m going to assume you meant goals instead of points.

No. I meant points.

When we play CR, the GD for the winning team goes up while the GD for the losing team goes down.

If our GD is 7 better than CR's going into the last game (as it is right now) and we are 3 points up on them in the standings, CR will overtake us if they beat us by 4 or more (their GD will increase by 4 and our GD will decrease by 4).

And yes, since GD can and likely will change by the time we play CR, this is all a little speculative. If CR beats ES by more than what we beat Panama by, things will be even tighter for us against CR next Wednesday.

Notwithstanding what CR might do, if we beat Panama we are guaranteed no worse than 4th and the playoff against Oceania. And practically speaking, if we beat Panama we should qualify as one of the top 3 teams, unless these GD scenarios go against us.

gbusios wrote:

johnny99 wrote:

No. I meant points.

When we play CR, the GD for the winning team goes up while the GD for the losing team goes down.

If our GD is 7 better than CR's going into the last game (as it is right now) and we are 3 points up on them in the standings, CR will overtake us if they beat us by 4 or more (their GD will increase by 4 and our GD will decrease by 4).

And yes, since GD can and likely will change by the time we play CR, this is all a little speculative. If CR beats ES by more than what we beat Panama by, things will be even tighter for us against CR next Wednesday.

Notwithstanding what CR might do, if we beat Panama we are guaranteed no worse than 4th and the playoff against Oceania. And practically speaking, if we beat Panama we should qualify as one of the top 3 teams, unless these GD scenarios go against us.

Okay fair but we don’t know what the GD will be and hopefully it won’t matter.

johnny99 wrote:

trollism wrote:

Those teams are irrelevant though. Everyone beats them.

USA only have to beat Panama and Costa Rica (over a longish qualifying campaign) and they're through, although they always make a meal of it.

Although I do appreciate it's got tougher for the USA now they're not even better than Canada anymore. That makes it tighter.

You're making my point for me. In CONCACAF, we don't get to play "irrelevant" teams that everyone beats. We're fighting for one of 3.5 spots, not the 13 spots that the European powerhouses "fight" for. 40%-50% of CONMEBOL teams make the WC.

We don't always make a meal of it. We made a meal of it in 2018. Otherwise, we've qualified for every WC since 1990 (excluding 1994 when we didn't have to qualify). Most cycles, we've qualified with at least one game to spare. Outside of Germany, France, Spain, Brazil and Argentina, does anyone have a better qualification record than us since 1990?

trollism wrote:

johnny99 wrote:

You're making my point for me. In CONCACAF, we don't get to play "irrelevant" teams that everyone beats. We're fighting for one of 3.5 spots, not the 13 spots that the European powerhouses "fight" for. 40%-50% of CONMEBOL teams make the WC.

We don't always make a meal of it. We made a meal of it in 2018. Otherwise, we've qualified for every WC since 1990 (excluding 1994 when we didn't have to qualify). Most cycles, we've qualified with at least one game to spare. Outside of Germany, France, Spain, Brazil and Argentina, does anyone have a better qualification record than us since 1990?

In Europe, Jamaica and Honduras would essentially be 'irrelevant teams that everyone beats'.

In CONCACAF they actually have a chance of making it.

And now you're making my point for me. USA has the best qualifying record because it's handed to them on a plate every time. Beat a couple of tiny Central American nations and Caribbean island or two and you're there.

Panama and Costa Rica are not strong sides. They wouldn't have a hope in Europe, in CONCACAF they're fighting to qualify.