Pre Classic - Women's 800 WR's Days are Numbered

Iron Bars wrote:

Bad Wigins wrote:

This is equivalent to getting a 1:43 flat man and some 1:44ers and calling it a threat to Rudisha.

Athing Mu is only 19 with 48.13 400m speed. I'd say the WR will be in jeopardy in a few years.

Where do you get 48.13? She ran 48.3x in a relay, which is 49 from blocks. The talking up of American athletes on these boards is endless.

anutti wrote:

Lord help ya! For the record, I don’t think she drops the wr this season. To say a clean (assumed) Mu has no chance to better Jarmila is... stupid. It's clear you've painted yourself into a corner and can only trot out the same nonsensical argument. Time will tell regarding the women's 800m wr. But you've already proved yourself a jackass ;)

Remind me of how many athletes, clean or doped, have got near Jarmila's record in nearly 40 years. But all of a sudden a "clean" athlete is going to knock it off. So how do you know she's clean? Does a clean athlete at championship level improve 6 secs over 800 in a year, let alone beat a record that even dopers have been unable to take in 4 decades? The safest inference is that if she takes it she, too, is doping. For the best clean athletes to be faster than the best doped athletes - who are all at the same general level of talent - produces the absurd argument that doping doesn't improve performance. It can take 5 seconds off a female 800m runner's performance, as a Russian whistleblower showed, who ran 1.56 doped but couldn't beat 2.01 clean.

Ban Amrstrong wrote:

But his posts get in the way of the conversation. That is the problem. If you read every post in a thread in order to follow train of thought, it is hard to skip his. It would be nice if they banned him until he stopped with the constant accusations. He should start a thread regarding suspected dopers so that we can choose to ignore it if we choose.

I manage to ignore yours. And a lot of other dumb posts.

You’re an idiot. She took down Raveyn in a near world record at 600 indoors at the age of 16 running 1:23. Yeah, she pry was born with a needle in her arm. You sir, again, are an idiot with absolutely zero intelligence on track.

portsea57 wrote:

Of course, there may be a big anti-climax! If you recall, Faith Kipyegon got beat by Laura Muir shortly after the Rio Olympics. That first post-Games meet can see surprising results.

Thank you. I just mentioned that in another thread, before seeing this one. Kipyegon and Hassan were so intent on fighting each other they allowed Muir to steal it from the front. Then the following race Kipyegon was terrible, nearly coming to a stop over the final 10 meters as the field blew by her. I made a lot of wagers in Tokyo but I would never bet on the meets to follow, not with any serious money, anyway. You'll have some athletes still in peak form while others collapse.

Regardless, it is ridiculous to expect 1:53. Where is Tim Hutchings when you need him? He was doing a great job of defining how much a meter is worth in each event. There is a massive gap between 1:53 low and 1:55 low. I have studied this previously and from memory the women are covering roughly 7 meters per second during the 800. So you are asking Athing Mu to be 14 meters faster than she was in Tokyo.

Yeah, lots of luck with that. Just think of the gap between Mu and Keely Hodgkinson. That wasn't exactly a photo finish yet it equated to only .67 difference. You're asking Mu to put 3x that much between her Tokyo form and Prefontaine form.

Let them be paced through 400 in 55.5 and we might see low 53 !! ... if they are brave enough ;)

Dexter60 wrote:

Let them be paced through 400 in 55.5 and we might see low 53 !! ... if they are brave enough ;)

You will not see 1:53.28 or even the world junior record of 1:54.01. This is not the bouncy 1-2% Tokyo track and even if it was I'd be very surprised to see Mu run faster than 1:54.5. She is not a 47.99 400m runner.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Ban Amrstrong wrote:

But his posts get in the way of the conversation. That is the problem. If you read every post in a thread in order to follow train of thought, it is hard to skip his. It would be nice if they banned him until he stopped with the constant accusations. He should start a thread regarding suspected dopers so that we can choose to ignore it if we choose.

I manage to ignore yours. And a lot of other dumb posts.

Yeah, that's why you always respond.

Moron.

Ban Armstrong.

Besides all this Mu talk, this is a super interesting race with some redemption stories (Grace, Wilson) and rivalry (Reekie v Hodgkinson). Feels like no one has anything to lose, expect for Mu. And it feels like she can't lose. Looking forward to this one!

First off. Jamila was doped like crazy. Second of all she was built and was a speed based runner and much stronger at the 400. Her 400 is worth 1:51.61 in the 800. Her 800 is worth a a 49.04. Athing is still very inexperienced first of all. She has never been in a true rabbited race, point one. Second-Mu ran 3 rounds, led the entire way. 3-Mu negative split her 1:55.21. 4- the track at Hayward field is actually faster than Toyko. Just look at the results dumb dumb. Just compare all the times for the most part from Thomas, Prandini, Murphy negative splitting a 1:43.1. There were a ton of talk around about how Americans wouldn’t touch those times in Toyko. All the women’s 200 and 100 and our 800 men didn’t touch those times in Toyko. Get some knowledge before you open your mouth

anotti wrote:

Besides all this Mu talk, this is a super interesting race with some redemption stories (Grace, Wilson) and rivalry (Reekie v Hodgkinson). Feels like no one has anything to lose, expect for Mu. And it feels like she can't lose. Looking forward to this one!

Yes, I just say that Hodgkinson is in the field and that takes this one to the next level. What pace should be requested? I'd say 56.5 or even 56.0 and I really hope Athing is right on the rabbit. I don't think the WR is at all in danger, but I think something between 1:54.3-1:54.7 is very possible.

Mu also improved 6 secs within two years and Hodgkinson 6 seconds in one year. Despite shoes and track and maybe considerably more professional training with 19 compared to 17 years old this is huge in the 800m. Any further improvement would justifiedly raise all kinds of red flags if they weren't American/British but Ugandan or Ukrainian.

Hodgkinson has had a truly wonderful 20/21 campaign but I struggle to see her surpassing her Tokyo run.

Here's my shout:

1. Mu 1:54.3 - still never been pushed, seems plausible for her to chop off another second or so, but the improvement can't continue indefinitely

2. Reekie 1:55.7 - she's determined to show she should have won a medal, a woman on a mission. Could equally blow up and run outside 2 mins

3. Goule 1:56.2 - also has a point to prove, chasing Reekie down the homestraight

Rogers 1:58, Hodgkinson 1:57, Grace 1:58

But who knows? Could all be a big anti-climax

This race should be rabbited in 55 flat so 55 low for Mu. 11% off her 400 or is 55 flat which is the same as Amos going out in 50 flat given his 44.99 PR. If she’s thru in that and has a rabbit to stay in thru at least 550, they record is in jeopardy. She has still yet to run a true 800 to her ability. Not saying she hasn’t run well, but she still is relatively inexperienced at the event compared to others. She’s never been in a race where she does go to the edge of that redline, which is needed in the 800. She’s also been negative splitting American record and collegiate performances. 27.2/28.0 (55.2)/28.5/29.5(58.0)=1:53.20

wwharrier wrote:

You’re an idiot. She took down Raveyn in a near world record at 600 indoors at the age of 16 running 1:23. Yeah, she pry was born with a needle in her arm. You sir, again, are an idiot with absolutely zero intelligence on track.

600 is not an 800. If you ran it you would know the difference. Her 800 times at 16 and older were nowhere near what she was running over the 600 - and still aren't.

wwharrier wrote:

First off. Jamila was doped like crazy. Second of all she was built and was a speed based runner and much stronger at the 400. Her 400 is worth 1:51.61 in the 800. Her 800 is worth a a 49.04. Athing is still very inexperienced first of all. She has never been in a true rabbited race, point one. Second-Mu ran 3 rounds, led the entire way. 3-Mu negative split her 1:55.21. 4- the track at Hayward field is actually faster than Toyko. Just look at the results dumb dumb. Just compare all the times for the most part from Thomas, Prandini, Murphy negative splitting a 1:43.1. There were a ton of talk around about how Americans wouldn’t touch those times in Toyko. All the women’s 200 and 100 and our 800 men didn’t touch those times in Toyko. Get some knowledge before you open your mouth

We missed the part where Mu has run 1.53. You mean it hasn't happened?

Actually I do. I personally have coached a world championship and US champion as well as multiple state champions and a multi time all American myself. First off, a pure 800 runner, you’ll use a 1.40 multiplier of her 600 time to get an 800 time which would be 1:56.98. She ran that time because she ran chasing Rogers instead of hs competition. She never ran faster than 2:01 because she wasn’t competing against elite professional competition and wasn’t training at a high collegiate level racing professionals. Get some knowledge before opening your mouth.

I was watching live when Kratochvilova set the record. The back story on that is that she was scheduled to run the 200 in that meet, but was feeling like something in her legs was stressed enough that she feared to sprint, so, for appearance fees, they entered her in the 800. It is, as far as I know, literally the ONLY 800 she ever ran in a meet.

That means, of course, that it wouldn't be her max effort at all, and that suggests the power of the Eastern European Training Programs of the day.......(she makes all the current DSD athletes look like eating disorder victims by comparison - just a tremendously muscular build, especially in the upper body and the thighs.)

For this reason, 1:53.28 is such an outlier that it hardly merits discussing.

Mu.....still learning. She is the best in the world right now, and is so good she has to run from the front in championship races. I'm not sure pacer is going to be all that helpful, tbh, because of her long stride.

What could she run? I suppose <1:54.5 if she paces it right might be the limit right now.

No WR this weekend. But, someday????/ First, let's see her dip below 1:54

wwharrier wrote:

Actually I do. I personally have coached a world championship and US champion as well as multiple state champions and a multi time all American myself. First off, a pure 800 runner, you’ll use a 1.40 multiplier of her 600 time to get an 800 time which would be 1:56.98. She ran that time because she ran chasing Rogers instead of hs competition. She never ran faster than 2:01 because she wasn’t competing against elite professional competition and wasn’t training at a high collegiate level racing professionals. Get some knowledge before opening your mouth.

So every runner at a given 400 speed (or 600) can be expected to run in the same territory time-wise over 800m? Because it's all mathematical, not physical? Mu is almost as fast as Cram was over 400m but he could run 1.42.8 for the 800. There would also be 49 sec women 400m runners who could likely run in the region of 1.23 for 600 who would never break 2-flat for the 800.

And what is a "pure" 800 runner? If that's their specialty more than any other event I would suggest that is Hodgkinson rather than Mu, who looks increasingly like a female Juantorena. Not "pure" at all. And such a runner does not have the endurance of an 800/1500 type.