My prediction: Carnage
My prediction: Carnage
Prediction
1. Kosgei
2. Chepngetich
3. Jepchirchir
4. Dereje
Aussiestatman wrote:
Not just for this strange year of 2020, but starting with a base line of comparing times and performances from just after Tokyo this year and adding in the few we have had to find who is at the top right now.
I ranked the top 50 after Tokyo here:
https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=9895048&page=4Then added in London and Valencia and now it's like this:
1. Still Kipchoge. One blip on the radar doesn't undo the magnificent series of wins he built up. Won at least one major every year from 2014-19. Is the current Olympic Champ.
2. Bekele: he and Eliud where a class above the last few years before COVID. No entry this year but still holds his place, just.
3. L.Cherono. Was third best last year for me. Beaten into second by Chebet in Valencia but has had a great 3 years and created a new PB yesterday. That time sits him 7th on the all-time list now.
4 Evans Chebet. Ranked him 41 earlier this year. Does already have a podium finish in a major.
5. Birhanu Legese: Joins the top two as the only men with multiple times among the top 15 all-time.
Kipchoge confirms GOAT status. Next question is where is his fall marathon is and are either Bekele or Titus Ekiru there as well?
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
29. Suguru Osako, fourth in Tokyo to book the last spot in his home Olympics in NR of 2.05.29.
Will get his chance in a home Olympics to challenge the top five.
So gutsy
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
22nd lady is Ababel Yeshaneh. Breakthrough at this distance was two years ago this month winning at the short Abu Dhabi course in 2.20.16. Confirmed her ability when second in Chicago last year when Kosgei claimed the WR. Didn’t panic when lost touch with that leader and finished in 2.20.51. Was through halfway in 68.22. Was unlucky at the World Half Champs this year to be clipped by Jepkosgei and both falling.
23. Asefa Kebede, third in Tokyo in 2.20.30 after winning Beijing last Nov. in 2.23.31.
Where should I place the recent Olympic bronze medalist in my current list?
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
7. Ashete Bekere: fourth in London [2.22.51] after winning Berlin Sept last year in 2.20.14
8. Roza Dereje: winner Valencia last year in 2.18.30. Only a half early this year.
9. Sara Hall: Wasn't ranked in my 50 before London with only one finish sub 2.26 in five years of running marathons. Has another chance in 9 days to cement this spot.
10. Birhane Dibaba, one of the few to get two runs at the classic distance this year. Second in Tokyo, 9th in Valencia.
Moving Sara up two places to 7tb.
I have Sara in 7 currently and now one of the only moves after the Olympics is Dereje jumping to 6 above Salpeter. Sara is running Chicago this fall, another potential podium with the Ethiopian and Kenyan athletes being spread across 6 majors and Valencia within 3 months.
Two great lists the last two days. Very different but both a lot of fun
Aussiestatman wrote:
Not just for this strange year of 2020, but starting with a base line of comparing times and performances from just after Tokyo this year and adding in the few we have had to find who is at the top right now.
I ranked the top 50 after Tokyo here:
https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=9895048&page=4Then added in London and Valencia and now it's like this:
1. Still Kipchoge. One blip on the radar doesn't undo the magnificent series of wins he built up. Won at least one major every year from 2014-19. Is the current Olympic Champ.
2. Bekele: he and Eliud where a class above the last few years before COVID. No entry this year but still holds his place, just.
3. L.Cherono. Was third best last year for me. Beaten into second by Chebet in Valencia but has had a great 3 years and created a new PB yesterday. That time sits him 7th on the all-time list now.
4 Evans Chebet. Ranked him 41 earlier this year. Does already have a podium finish in a major.
5. Birhanu Legese: Joins the top two as the only men with multiple times among the top 15 all-time.
Top five didn’t change with the Olympic result. Bekele needs a win tonight in Berlin. Don’t stress about the time, even 2.03.xx keeps him at number 2. At least until London next week.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
23. Asefa Kebede, third in Tokyo in 2.20.30 after winning Beijing last Nov. in 2.23.31.
Winner yesterday in Milan, Hiwot Gebrekidan in the WL of 2.19.35, motors into this list. Previous best of 2.23.50. Hiwot at 23 between the two mentioned above. Looking forward to seeing which Major she enters later this year.
Good result today, major runner-up and even though losing as favourite to a debutant, still quick enough to challenge the top ten.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Not just for this strange year of 2020, but starting with a base line of comparing times and performances from just after Tokyo this year and adding in the few we have had to find who is at the top right now.
I ranked the top 50 after Tokyo here:
https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=9895048&page=4Then added in London and Valencia and now it's like this:
1. Still Kipchoge. One blip on the radar doesn't undo the magnificent series of wins he built up. Won at least one major every year from 2014-19. Is the current Olympic Champ.
2. Bekele: he and Eliud where a class above the last few years before COVID. No entry this year but still holds his place, just.
3. L.Cherono. Was third best last year for me. Beaten into second by Chebet in Valencia but has had a great 3 years and created a new PB yesterday. That time sits him 7th on the all-time list now.
4 Evans Chebet. Ranked him 41 earlier this year. Does already have a podium finish in a major.
5. Birhanu Legese: Joins the top two as the only men with multiple times among the top 15 all-time.
Top five didn’t change with the Olympic result. Bekele needs a win tonight in Berlin. Don’t stress about the time, even 2.03.xx keeps him at number 2. At least until London next week.
Bekele drops to just inside the top ten. London now is a showdown for second rank in the world: Evans Chebet v Legese. Titus Ekiru on a good day is the only other who can have a say, IMO.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Up to 25 and still no Rupp. Soon now: just before Osako, who claimed the Japanese NR this year.
Guye Adola at 25. Third in Valencia last year in 2.04.42. Second in Berlin 2017 in 2.03.46.
Major win, hanging tough after going too fast early. Proves he is ranked above Rupp. Galen has his chance to respond in two weeks in Chicago v Shifera Tamru.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Kosgei the WR holder still at one
2. Peres. I had ranked in the forties before this.
3. Ruth C. Even with the fading third in London.
4. Worknesh Degefa. Been quiet.
5. Joyciline Jepkosgei: big improvement in time
7. Ashete Bekere: fourth in London [2.22.51] after winning Berlin Sept last year in 2.20.14
8. Roza Dereje: winner Valencia last year in 2.18.30. Only a half early this year.
9. Sara Hall: Wasn't ranked in my 50 before London with only one finish sub 2.26 in five years of running marathons. Has another chance in 9 days to cement this spot.
10. Birhane Dibaba, one of the few to get two runs at the classic distance this year. Second in Tokyo, 9th in Valencia.
I wonder what changes will come this next week?
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
27. Gutemi Shone, second in Dubai in 2.20.11 after winning Seville in Feb 2019 in 2.24.28. Sidenote: If Kellyn Taylor wins this morning at the project in 2.20.44 like I have called it, she would rocket into this top 30 in one of the next three places.
The winner yesterday in Italy in 2.20.08, Angela Tanui, rockets into this list at 27, above Gutemi.
Running Boston, does a third or fourth cement her in the top 30?
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Guye Adola at 25. Third in Valencia last year in 2.04.42. Second in Berlin 2017 in 2.03.46.
Major win, hanging tough after going too fast early. Proves he is ranked above Rupp. Galen has his chance to respond in two weeks in Chicago v Shifera Tamru.
Reuben Kipyego in the mix too. Ruth vs Sara Hall version 2 should be a barn burner as well. Cannot wait!
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
The winner yesterday in Italy in 2.20.08, Angela Tanui, rockets into this list at 27, above Gutemi.
Running Boston, does a third or fourth cement her in the top 30?
Must be nearly time to create this year's version of these rankings lists. Tanui ended up winning Amsterdam in 2.17.57, second fastest all year and plonks her at number 5 behind the four Kenyans all born within 12 months of each other.
Aussiestatman wrote:
After the Tokyo Marathon I set about ranking the top 50. I decided to place three women together at 18th. One, Valerie Jemeli, would struggle in London while the other two would amazingly record the same times in finishing Valencia, so those two I still cannot separate as equal 18th here. Degita Azimeraw and Tigist Girma both recorded 2.19.56.
Azimeraw is a big improver this year. Proved in London she can mix it with the best and come out close to the top.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Running Boston, does a third or fourth cement her in the top 30?
Must be nearly time to create this year's version of these rankings lists. Tanui ended up winning Amsterdam in 2.17.57, second fastest all year and plonks her at number 5 behind the four Kenyans all born within 12 months of each other.
Seventh woman is Ashete Bekere. Third in London in 2.18.18. I was just thinking about my top 20 two years ago. It included all the major winners and world champs podium achievers. Might be different here
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Must be nearly time to create this year's version of these rankings lists. Tanui ended up winning Amsterdam in 2.17.57, second fastest all year and plonks her at number 5 behind the four Kenyans all born within 12 months of each other.
Seventh woman is Ashete Bekere. Third in London in 2.18.18. I was just thinking about my top 20 two years ago. It included all the major winners and world champs podium achievers. Might be different here
I don't think you can leave Roza Dereje out of this conversation. Fourth in the Olympics was the first marathon since her win in Valencia late in 2019
Lonah Salpeter at 9. Fifth in London in sub 2.19 after fading in the Olympics after being with the leaders at 35k
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
After the Tokyo Marathon I set about ranking the top 50. I decided to place three women together at 18th. One, Valerie Jemeli, would struggle in London while the other two would amazingly record the same times in finishing Valencia, so those two I still cannot separate as equal 18th here. Degita Azimeraw and Tigist Girma both recorded 2.19.56.
Azimeraw is a big improver this year. Proved in London she can mix it with the best and come out close to the top.
Hiwot Gebrekidan rounds out my 10. Winner in Milan in 2.19.35 then second in Berlin.