agip wrote:
for the record, since 1970, here are the 30%+ declines
08
02
87
74
70
and 1987 gets an asterisk because 1987 was an up year despite the crash. By the Dow anyway.
So a 30%+ fall is somewhat rare but it does happen so it has to be one of your factors.
relatedly, apparently there have been only two back to back declines since WW2. 1973-74 and 2001-2002. It is very hard to keep the market down 2 years in a row.
And right now we are down for 2015.
I suppose the corollary here is this:
If you think we are in for a 30% decline, you have to believe that there is some bubble out there worse than
08: global financial meltdown
01-02 - aftermath of biggest stock market bubble of at least 100 years
87: Largest one day stock market collapse of our lifetimes
74: oil embargo
70: I dunno - Vietnam, guns, butter, country tearing itself apart
So what do we have now that compares to the epochal events that caused 02 and 08? I sure don't see it. Certainly none of the euphoria that goes along with every stock market bubble.
Probably all you have is low interest rates and a giant balance sheet at the Fed. I suppose the Fed is the big worry, but really - as big as the mortgage meltdown or the biggest stock market bubble in 100 plus years?
I just don't see it, Igy. Being bearish is fine, but calling for catastrophic falls is probably a fool's errand.