We've closed this thread to new posts. Please discuss this topic in a new thread given the fact she just won the race outright in 2023. Does that mean that the 2022 cheating allegations definitely have no merit?
I don’t want to investigate in this thread. But, Yes I looked at other top 10 runners. I have .GPX for 5 of the top 10. All of their data is unique. There is no clear pattern of what the data ‘should’ look like. You could look at any of their data and find supposed ‘suspicious’ sections of data if you were convinced they cheated going in.
The runners that ‘know’ what happened should put their reputations on the line and come forward if they are so convinced. But when nothing was verifiable or when their claims were refuted, they fell silent.
This will be it for me here, I’m coming dangerously close to investigating this in public. If anyone has genuine questions, I’m reachable via email.
This is kind of where I'm at. Based on her past history where she tried to claim a win even after she knew she cut the course (we'll just say it that way), and with other wins where she says she went off course...and her social media profile, etc. It was low hanging fruit to be suspicious. I also heard that numerous people at the event reported suspicious behavior. And I read she had a super low heart rate on the final climb.
I made a big spreadsheet of all the splits for the top 10 finishers over the last several years, and Ashley Paulson had the single fastest last and second last both splits out of all men and women during that time. I didn't go back further because of lack of time and also the race now starts at dark so I wanted to try and restrict the comparisons to similar finishing times of day.
Of course those final splits stand out for a couple of reasons - it was getting dark for one.
When I look at the GPS and heart rate data, I do see spikes in it and everything makes sense (I wouldn't call the heart rate data "low"). The one piece I can't wrap my head around is Lone Pine to Portal Road...the GPS data is consistently pretty low heart rate with no walks that I could pick up. So if anything "weird" happened, it seems to be that was the area.
But until the people who were there actually speak up and say things publicly, all of this is speculation and hunting for answers based on questions that haven't been asked. I notice that Ashley Paulson has run almost 100 marathons, with many in the 2:30s. She has a faster marathon PR than Camille Heron who has a faster marathon, 100-mile, and 24-hour PR than folks like Scott Jurek or Harvey Lewis.
When I look at the splits, Ashley Paulson was within 0 to 2 miles max from the start all the way to Keeler (15 hours worth) of Harvey Lewis and Lee Whitaker (Lee was 4 minutes behind Ashley at Panamint Springs). If she was there all that time, then that should tell folks she was legit. If you can make it past 100 miles at those paces in that heat and you still look good and are happy, then you are legit. If she was NOT within sight all that time, then he/they should speak up (if they are indeed contending there was suspicious behavior).
If those key people are not willing to speak up and say more, then that tells you all you need to know. Based on all the data I've looked through, if this would have been any other runner who didn't have the checkered past, I wouldn't think twice about it.
I've looked at pictures to see if she has the same shoes on in various pictures (she changed shoes at least once). I've looked at the pictures when she had a hoodie on (because that could obscure a crew member looking like her)...I've looked at everything I can get my hands on, and I don't see anything suspicious at this point other than amazing splits at the end...which again in and of themselves are humanly possible, which means in and of themselves amount to nothing.
I don’t want to investigate in this thread. But, Yes I looked at other top 10 runners. I have .GPX for 5 of the top 10. All of their data is unique. There is no clear pattern of what the data ‘should’ look like. You could look at any of their data and find supposed ‘suspicious’ sections of data if you were convinced they cheated going in.
The runners that ‘know’ what happened should put their reputations on the line and come forward if they are so convinced. But when nothing was verifiable or when their claims were refuted, they fell silent.
This will be it for me here, I’m coming dangerously close to investigating this in public. If anyone has genuine questions, I’m reachable via email.
This is kind of where I'm at. Based on her past history where she tried to claim a win even after she knew she cut the course (we'll just say it that way), and with other wins where she says she went off course...and her social media profile, etc. It was low hanging fruit to be suspicious. I also heard that numerous people at the event reported suspicious behavior. And I read she had a super low heart rate on the final climb.
I made a big spreadsheet of all the splits for the top 10 finishers over the last several years, and Ashley Paulson had the single fastest last and second last both splits out of all men and women during that time. I didn't go back further because of lack of time and also the race now starts at dark so I wanted to try and restrict the comparisons to similar finishing times of day.
Of course those final splits stand out for a couple of reasons - it was getting dark for one.
When I look at the GPS and heart rate data, I do see spikes in it and everything makes sense (I wouldn't call the heart rate data "low"). The one piece I can't wrap my head around is Lone Pine to Portal Road...the GPS data is consistently pretty low heart rate with no walks that I could pick up. So if anything "weird" happened, it seems to be that was the area.
But until the people who were there actually speak up and say things publicly, all of this is speculation and hunting for answers based on questions that haven't been asked. I notice that Ashley Paulson has run almost 100 marathons, with many in the 2:30s. She has a faster marathon PR than Camille Heron who has a faster marathon, 100-mile, and 24-hour PR than folks like Scott Jurek or Harvey Lewis.
When I look at the splits, Ashley Paulson was within 0 to 2 miles max from the start all the way to Keeler (15 hours worth) of Harvey Lewis and Lee Whitaker (Lee was 4 minutes behind Ashley at Panamint Springs). If she was there all that time, then that should tell folks she was legit. If you can make it past 100 miles at those paces in that heat and you still look good and are happy, then you are legit. If she was NOT within sight all that time, then he/they should speak up (if they are indeed contending there was suspicious behavior).
If those key people are not willing to speak up and say more, then that tells you all you need to know. Based on all the data I've looked through, if this would have been any other runner who didn't have the checkered past, I wouldn't think twice about it.
I've looked at pictures to see if she has the same shoes on in various pictures (she changed shoes at least once). I've looked at the pictures when she had a hoodie on (because that could obscure a crew member looking like her)...I've looked at everything I can get my hands on, and I don't see anything suspicious at this point other than amazing splits at the end...which again in and of themselves are humanly possible, which means in and of themselves amount to nothing.
Speaking up is not something Harvey and Lee are going to do. Just not something you can do if you're in the Badwater family. Harvey maybe could, but unlikely. Lee, no. But if you look at Harvey's posts, there's some thinly-veiled attacks.
As for Ashley's speed, there's no doubt she's quick in the marathon, even quicker than Camille. She's a great athlete. But marathon speed is barely more relevant to Badwater than 5K speed. Her 17:26 100 is a much better indicator of her potential. To run up that mountain as fast as she did her first time past 100, and to PR by 20+ minutes for 100 in that race on that course in that heat with those climbs and still have enough left in the tank to crank it up another notch 22 miles later and be better than basically anybody ever before — well that's something that just about anybody who's done it will tell you privately is unfathomable.
This is kind of where I'm at. Based on her past history where she tried to claim a win even after she knew she cut the course (we'll just say it that way), and with other wins where she says she went off course...and her social media profile, etc. It was low hanging fruit to be suspicious. I also heard that numerous people at the event reported suspicious behavior. And I read she had a super low heart rate on the final climb.
I made a big spreadsheet of all the splits for the top 10 finishers over the last several years, and Ashley Paulson had the single fastest last and second last both splits out of all men and women during that time. I didn't go back further because of lack of time and also the race now starts at dark so I wanted to try and restrict the comparisons to similar finishing times of day.
Of course those final splits stand out for a couple of reasons - it was getting dark for one.
When I look at the GPS and heart rate data, I do see spikes in it and everything makes sense (I wouldn't call the heart rate data "low"). The one piece I can't wrap my head around is Lone Pine to Portal Road...the GPS data is consistently pretty low heart rate with no walks that I could pick up. So if anything "weird" happened, it seems to be that was the area.
But until the people who were there actually speak up and say things publicly, all of this is speculation and hunting for answers based on questions that haven't been asked. I notice that Ashley Paulson has run almost 100 marathons, with many in the 2:30s. She has a faster marathon PR than Camille Heron who has a faster marathon, 100-mile, and 24-hour PR than folks like Scott Jurek or Harvey Lewis.
When I look at the splits, Ashley Paulson was within 0 to 2 miles max from the start all the way to Keeler (15 hours worth) of Harvey Lewis and Lee Whitaker (Lee was 4 minutes behind Ashley at Panamint Springs). If she was there all that time, then that should tell folks she was legit. If you can make it past 100 miles at those paces in that heat and you still look good and are happy, then you are legit. If she was NOT within sight all that time, then he/they should speak up (if they are indeed contending there was suspicious behavior).
If those key people are not willing to speak up and say more, then that tells you all you need to know. Based on all the data I've looked through, if this would have been any other runner who didn't have the checkered past, I wouldn't think twice about it.
I've looked at pictures to see if she has the same shoes on in various pictures (she changed shoes at least once). I've looked at the pictures when she had a hoodie on (because that could obscure a crew member looking like her)...I've looked at everything I can get my hands on, and I don't see anything suspicious at this point other than amazing splits at the end...which again in and of themselves are humanly possible, which means in and of themselves amount to nothing.
Speaking up is not something Harvey and Lee are going to do. Just not something you can do if you're in the Badwater family. Harvey maybe could, but unlikely. Lee, no. But if you look at Harvey's posts, there's some thinly-veiled attacks.
As for Ashley's speed, there's no doubt she's quick in the marathon, even quicker than Camille. She's a great athlete. But marathon speed is barely more relevant to Badwater than 5K speed. Her 17:26 100 is a much better indicator of her potential. To run up that mountain as fast as she did her first time past 100, and to PR by 20+ minutes for 100 in that race on that course in that heat with those climbs and still have enough left in the tank to crank it up another notch 22 miles later and be better than basically anybody ever before — well that's something that just about anybody who's done it will tell you privately is unfathomable.
Yea, I get that.
But here's the devil's advocate position. Lee and Harvey ran with her and just barely behind her all day long all the way to Keeler. At Lone Pine she had a gap on them where they couldn't see her anymore, but she's on video coming through there and she looks fine and in good spirits. So what gives - they saw her all day long did they not. And she looked fine. And she looked good through Lone Pine. So why are they so confident she couldn't have done what she did when they watched her do it and run away from them all day? While looking fresh and under control?
This has been debated ad nauseam at this point. Ya'll just need to get out and run your own races.
It's been established that Paulson is a very solid [national class age group] marathon runner, that's got durability. She literally just won another marathon very shortly after her Badwater performance. Perhaps it's time to accept that Badwater doesn't require some crazy unique skill set that's outside of Paulson's wheelhouse.
I don’t want to investigate in this thread. But, Yes I looked at other top 10 runners. I have .GPX for 5 of the top 10. All of their data is unique. There is no clear pattern of what the data ‘should’ look like. You could look at any of their data and find supposed ‘suspicious’ sections of data if you were convinced they cheated going in.
The runners that ‘know’ what happened should put their reputations on the line and come forward if they are so convinced. But when nothing was verifiable or when their claims were refuted, they fell silent.
This will be it for me here, I’m coming dangerously close to investigating this in public. If anyone has genuine questions, I’m reachable via email.
All I asked about the top 10 (twice) was what their stop times in Panamint were.
The runners that should put their reputations on the line, per Sir Derek Murphy, could face blackballing from the race. Pretty arrogant on your part that you think you can dictate what actions others must take to challenge what you say, and how you think your word is the authority.
And rich, to say the least, that you're getting upset and threatening because somebody is questioning how straightforward and pure your methods have. That's your trick.
Upset and threatening? Not at all. Point is, I spent hours analyzing specific data relating to reports. There was nothing definitive, or even close. I’m not going to write that Ashley cheated because xxx didn’t see her when I also have statements from xxx that were inaccurate regarding their own pace, etc. If the entire case is based on opinion and eyewitnesses, those eyewitnesses need to speak up or accept the result. Some people say they *know* she cheated but there’s nothing to back it up.
Where's Goggins when we need him! I want him to give his two cents and then yell at all of us to go outside.
A strong argument can be made that she's chipping away at her ultra times the same way she chipped away at her marathon times and eventually qualified for the Olympic trials. Maybe she's not all that different from someone like Goggins in her level of drive. In looking at her past ultra results, it seems she's back at it again this weekend with a 100k!
All I asked about the top 10 (twice) was what their stop times in Panamint were.
The runners that should put their reputations on the line, per Sir Derek Murphy, could face blackballing from the race. Pretty arrogant on your part that you think you can dictate what actions others must take to challenge what you say, and how you think your word is the authority.
And rich, to say the least, that you're getting upset and threatening because somebody is questioning how straightforward and pure your methods have. That's your trick.
Upset and threatening? Not at all. Point is, I spent hours analyzing specific data relating to reports. There was nothing definitive, or even close. I’m not going to write that Ashley cheated because xxx didn’t see her when I also have statements from xxx that were inaccurate regarding their own pace, etc. If the entire case is based on opinion and eyewitnesses, those eyewitnesses need to speak up or accept the result. Some people say they *know* she cheated but there’s nothing to back it up.
That's fair, and you have to live up to court room standards. Chatter on here is bar room standards. You seemed to present your findings as "I couldn't find anything to show that she cheated therefore I declare it legitimate". I would suspect that if you talked to enough Badwater runners, you probably got a ton that highly doubted her ability to pull off that run legitimately, and they're the expert witnesses on what it takes and what can actually be done. To me it's an eye roll that somehow people think you issue final judgment, the same people that hated you before you published your analysis.
I think you're great in your niche, which is analyzing marathon data and spotting cheaters. Those races are shorter, splits are much closer, pace varies a lot less, and results don't vary anywhere nearly as much. This race has some splits that are nearly a marathon apart. It's way outside of your wheelhouse. Obviously I think you're wrong, but I think you tried to get the best info you could.
The situation has a weird dynamic. Nobody will speak up publicly unless they support her. So you get what you get, especially if she opens up to you with what she wants to open up to you with and that's what you run with.
Nothing is ever going to come of this, she'll forever be the 2022 champion and she'll hold the record until it's broken. It's going to be interesting to watch and see how she does going forward, if she has duplicate performances or if this was her (pun intended) one moment in the sun.
some more data for the 1-4 people interested. as for the "missing" data points, i think that's more an apples vs. oranges (garmin connect vs. strava) thing. strava is always smoother-looking, in my experience, and that's probably the case here as well. so that point should be considered moot imo.
but since a lot of people seem most interested in the climbs, i did some breakdowns of her three main climbs, and highlighted the parts where her HR and pace vs. elevation gain are particularly impressive. i'm totally on the fence about how this was accomplished, despite my username. i just think it's interesting.
Based on the link, her average heart rate climbing at a steep grade between miles 122-131 was 120 bpm- while drinking Red Bull. Who climbs any grade with a heart rate so low, let alone after 122 miles? It doesn’t line up with her heart rate on the previous climbs.
Is it possible she did the climb at another time (while fresh) and edited the date/time? The fact she weaves all over the road (and mostly on the right side) makes it look like it’s not from the race, whereas others are on the left side of the road as required by race rules.
Today, I went on an easy run and my watch-based heart rate was 177. A little bit later, it was 143. Last fall, during a cross-country race, it read 210 (my max is 186).
Watch based HR is wildly inaccurate. The chest strap will read pretty steadily until the battery starts to go bad.
Her position with iFit until recently was live classes, in part. Many of which were interval training as well as lots of high level incline training (up to 40%). When you are leading 3+ hours a day of high level incline training while talking and encouraging others, you are building up that aerobic stamina. Her heart-rate is likely very reasonable to her given fitness level in that area.
Have you ever worn a HRM on a long run? It doesn't matter how fit you are. HR drifts up the longer you run.
Altitude, incline, heat, and time all cause HR to drift upwards if you are running the same pace. To keep the HR the same, you have to slow down. She ran for multiple hours in high heat, uphill, and at altitude. i have a tough time believing that her HR would be below 140, especially if she was chasing a CR.
This has been debated ad nauseam at this point. Ya'll just need to get out and run your own races.
It's been established that Paulson is a very solid [national class age group] marathon runner, that's got durability. She literally just won another marathon very shortly after her Badwater performance. Perhaps it's time to accept that Badwater doesn't require some crazy unique skill set that's outside of Paulson's wheelhouse.
It’s also been established that she’s more than happy to flout the rules when it suits her.
It’s also been established that a marathon isn’t an accurate indicator of 100 mile potential.
More often than not when things are too good to be true they’re exactly that.
I read every post in this stupid thread and have to say that I'm convinced that there isn't an honest runner out there.
1. Course cutting. Everybody does it. Everyone. You do it on all your races. The local cross country kids do it. The mom doing a local 5k in 30 minutes cut the course. The dad trying to impress me with his 2:15 half cut the course. I won't believe otherwise until they wear a go pro and document every step. Cops wear body cams. You can wear a go pro on your short shorts, bro.
2. Even if you prove you didn't cut the course we know every runner is doping. From the sprinters to the ultramarathon runners. They all dope. Particularly the ultra people. They are too afraid of testing to even set up a rigid system of testing. They are all guilty until I see them tested on the regular.
Unless you do these things don't tell me you accomplished anything, you cheat.
I don’t want to investigate in this thread. But, Yes I looked at other top 10 runners. I have .GPX for 5 of the top 10. All of their data is unique. There is no clear pattern of what the data ‘should’ look like. You could look at any of their data and find supposed ‘suspicious’ sections of data if you were convinced they cheated going in.
The runners that ‘know’ what happened should put their reputations on the line and come forward if they are so convinced. But when nothing was verifiable or when their claims were refuted, they fell silent.
This will be it for me here, I’m coming dangerously close to investigating this in public. If anyone has genuine questions, I’m reachable via email.
This is kind of where I'm at. Based on her past history where she tried to claim a win even after she knew she cut the course (we'll just say it that way), and with other wins where she says she went off course...and her social media profile, etc. It was low hanging fruit to be suspicious. I also heard that numerous people at the event reported suspicious behavior. And I read she had a super low heart rate on the final climb.
I made a big spreadsheet of all the splits for the top 10 finishers over the last several years, and Ashley Paulson had the single fastest last and second last both splits out of all men and women during that time. I didn't go back further because of lack of time and also the race now starts at dark so I wanted to try and restrict the comparisons to similar finishing times of day.
Of course those final splits stand out for a couple of reasons - it was getting dark for one.
When I look at the GPS and heart rate data, I do see spikes in it and everything makes sense (I wouldn't call the heart rate data "low"). The one piece I can't wrap my head around is Lone Pine to Portal Road...the GPS data is consistently pretty low heart rate with no walks that I could pick up. So if anything "weird" happened, it seems to be that was the area.
But until the people who were there actually speak up and say things publicly, all of this is speculation and hunting for answers based on questions that haven't been asked. I notice that Ashley Paulson has run almost 100 marathons, with many in the 2:30s. She has a faster marathon PR than Camille Heron who has a faster marathon, 100-mile, and 24-hour PR than folks like Scott Jurek or Harvey Lewis.
When I look at the splits, Ashley Paulson was within 0 to 2 miles max from the start all the way to Keeler (15 hours worth) of Harvey Lewis and Lee Whitaker (Lee was 4 minutes behind Ashley at Panamint Springs). If she was there all that time, then that should tell folks she was legit. If you can make it past 100 miles at those paces in that heat and you still look good and are happy, then you are legit. If she was NOT within sight all that time, then he/they should speak up (if they are indeed contending there was suspicious behavior).
If those key people are not willing to speak up and say more, then that tells you all you need to know. Based on all the data I've looked through, if this would have been any other runner who didn't have the checkered past, I wouldn't think twice about it.
I've looked at pictures to see if she has the same shoes on in various pictures (she changed shoes at least once). I've looked at the pictures when she had a hoodie on (because that could obscure a crew member looking like her)...I've looked at everything I can get my hands on, and I don't see anything suspicious at this point other than amazing splits at the end...which again in and of themselves are humanly possible, which means in and of themselves amount to nothing.
Did it ever dawn on you guys that maybe she is just doped to the gills? Don't need to cut the course when you have extra strength from PEDs.
oh there's absolutely something going on with supplementation. maybe it's legal, maybe it's not. but both her and her pacer are running 1:15-1:17 for half marathons at age 39ish? those times would put them in the top 10 in this year's half marathon championships (which makes me wonder, why aren't they competing on that circuit?)
sooo...are we all wrong to move up distances as we age? or are their results just bonkers?
Wrist based heart rate is inherently inaccurate. I’ve had many runs where my average heart rate will end up being, say 85 whilst running a pace where it should be 135. If her run is legit (and I do not claim it is or is not), I would surmise the most logical explanation is her watch heart rate worked improperly, giving a false low reading on the climb.
But if you look at Harvey's posts, there's some thinly-veiled attacks.
like what?
1. Talking about Bob Becker a week after the race and it's pretty easy to read between the lines.
Detur Digniori The final mile. Run, walk or crawl every inch of 135 miles… The only way. In the end it is honor that is all we may have in this world or the next.
2. Talking about his run streak ending the day after the race, but he starts with this line.
One can steal but they can’t steal our mojo.
3. Congratulating Courtney Dauwalter on her Hardrock CR. He never congratulated Ashley, but it's interesting what he addressed about Courtney:
What I love most about Courtney isn’t that she can enter the “pain cave” (as she calls it) as well as anyone I know, not her skill to rejuvenate when her body is nearly fully depleted, not her power to climb big mountains as fast as anyone I know while telling you a joke, but her unwavering character.
4. Talking about his race from last year and he addresses the final 3.6 last year.
One year ago! 2021 I had a 25:50:23 overall time, but you can see my (1:10:23) from the final check point 3.6 miles, even moving, was not as fast as some of the runners this year. 2022 (Top 10 Runners and final 3.6 split) Overall Time Time from final check point 3.6 23:08:20 Ishikawa Yoshihiko 1:42:20 24:02:57 Ivan Penalba Lopez 1:00:57 24:09:34 Ashley Paulson 54:34 27:16:35 Harvey Lewis 1:44:35 28:40:29 Hans Van Zenten 1:04:29 28:45:32 Georgia Jo Manta 1:03:32 29:11:09 Michael Ohler 1:09:09 29:43:44 Todd Nott 1:18:44 30:11:10 Pam Smith 1:00:10 30:12:39 Lee Whitaker 1:17:39 30 Days to Leadville 100!