John Hussman weekly commentary, The Bubble Right In Front of Investor's Faces:
John Hussman weekly commentary, The Bubble Right In Front of Investor's Faces:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
As your generation says: "Whatever."
My generation? WTF?
As of 11/12/2015 with 458 S&P 500 companies reporting, Last Twelve Month Earnings (LTM) for Q3 tracking at $90.98 a share. By comparison Q3 2014 LTM was an all-time peak of $105.96. Stock buybacks are still adding a 4% tailwind to reported earnings.,
Igy -
So I ran well - broke 17:25 handily.
I'm very happy about it - my best run in absolute terms for 5 or 6 years and best ever age graded.
POTO,
Sorry, I assumed you were a 30s something.
Igy
agip,
Very good time congratulations. About 5:30 a mile right? How were your splits? Did you finish strong?
I hope you whopped on some youngsters. It is fun to show them you've still got it!
If you haven't raced it yet, I would highly recommend the masters race at the Carlsbad 5,000. The course is perfect for a fast time, highly competitive, and in early April you can't best the Southern California weather.
Igy
I
coach d wrote:
I have done NOTHING but follow the trend since July. No trading whatsoever except to add positions in gold, palladium, and platinum in the last 2-3 weeks.
Exactly which trend following / trading system has you long gold now?
Thanks - splits were good - I'm avoiding giving my exact time because I am trying to keep some kind of anonymity, but my last mile was the fastest so I ran it wisely.
Average age of those who beat me was 22, so yeah, mixing it up with the youngsters.
The carlsbad race has been on my bucket list for years - Maybe when I turn 50 in two years I'll make a week of it and see how I do against the 50s.
Now I think I'll back off for a bit and then see if I can gear up for a good indoor season.
Looks pretty good wrote:
coach d wrote:I have done NOTHING but follow the trend since July. No trading whatsoever except to add positions in gold, palladium, and platinum in the last 2-3 weeks.
Exactly which trend following / trading system has you long gold now?
Nevermind... I see your position in gold is short.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sally V,
Didn't you own Chesapeake?
Igy
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-13/chesapeake-lenders-flee-debt-as-oil-rout-pummels-reserves-value
Still own that and I'm thinking of doubling down tomorrow. Buy low and sell high, right?
Is this what POTO meant by you diverting instead of admitting you were wrong. Or was that "whatever" comment your admission?
Sally V,
The point of the original post was never whether McDonalds would or would not have to refinance. So diversion of points goes both ways; you can trust my "whatever"comment in part reflects this thought. In the example of Chesapeake any potential refinance will be forced at higher rates. Once a corporation faces a period of stress the terms of debt refinance can easily change from a tailwind to a headwind. The Fitch ratings change article assumes that McDonalds will be rolling over (refinancing) debt that matures in 2016 and 2017. Since their debt has been downgraded by Moody and Fitch I assume it will be refinanced at higher rates. And the cause for those downgrades was the thought behind the original post. If it makes you or POTO feel better quibbling about semantics than be my guests.
Igy
Sally V,
If McDonalds debt is not retired it will have to be refinanced. Evidently McDonalds is not retiring debt but rather increasing debt, all for the sake of buying back their stock at record high prices. I guess McDonalds management thinks it is a good strategy. It has not worked out so well for CAT and IBM.
Igy
Sally V,
In regards to Chesapeake, bond holders sit higher in the capital structure versus equity holders. If the bonds are trading at 50 cents on the dollar, the bond market is telling equity holders there is a rising bankruptcy risk. In a bankruptcy equity holders usually go to zero while bond holders will have some claim to the assets of the bankrupt firm. A safer bet may be to buy the Chesapeake bonds rather than the stock.
Igy
I tried to warn you.
Yes, me too..
POTO,
For your enjoyment, or better information, another article on McDonalds and the infinite wisdom of their stock buyback program.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
If McDonalds debt is not retired it will have to be refinanced.
You're doing it again.
Look, I appreciate that you were trying to make a point with your earlier post. But you lose all credibility when you try to support it with idiotic statements like MCD will have to refinance their debt acquired at a minuscule rate. Of course they wouldn't do that.
Then you double down with the quote above. Yikes.
Sally V,
You are wrong again, unless you consider miniscule debt of $800 milion that matures in 2016 and $1 billion that matures in 2017. This debt matures, the investors have to be made whole. Where does that money come from? How, tell me is that idiotic? Either the company pays it with cash on hand or it refinances the debt. Do you really understand?
I am not sure what kind of logic or illogic you or POTO use. But hey someone must be willing to think the investment makes sense. No surprises since it happens at the top of every market cycle.
Good luck though.
Igy
Sally V,
Evidently Moodys feels that the debt issuance is a problem. POTO didn't like my MarketWatch summary, so here it is directly from Moodys.
Just the nature of a debt downgrade reflects negatively on refinancing as well as money borrowed to finance recently announced stock buybacks.
How much clearer can one be?
Reminds me of the kid with hands over the ear yellinng "I can't hear you."
Enough of this.
Igy
Have you never borrowed money? A mortgage, car loan, anything? You make a repayment agreement with the lender. It's really quite simple. You might refinance if the rates drop, but you don't HAVE to refinance...especially at higher rates.
You've lost it, Igy.