For example bought LABD 10/7/15 @ 48.72 sold 10/13 @ 54.70.
For example bought LABD 10/7/15 @ 48.72 sold 10/13 @ 54.70.
Where are all the Bulls today?
Profit margin decline is one central points of those that believe we may be at the top of the business cycle. The Wal Mart announcement today shows in part the increasing cost of labor. Businesses have been cutting costs for years and are reaching their limit. Wal Mart also announced a $20 billion stock buyback plan that did little to support the stock.
Igy
don't look now, but gold is above its 200 day moving average
but it has done this a couple times a year and subsequently collapsed
as for profit margins...they are in a range - right now they are at the low part of the range, but over the last 5 years they have rebounded from this level.
Page 14 of the holy book:
https://www.jpmorganfunds.com/blobcontentheader/202/900/1158474868049_jp-littlebook.pdf
I rate WMT (currently $60) a "buy".
agip,
According to your Holy Book it looks to me like profit margins have peaked and are rolling over.
Igy
Big,
There is certainly more value in WMT and less downside risk than AMZN.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
According to your Holy Book it looks to me like profit margins have peaked and are rolling over.
Igy
Well to my mind, rolling over implies lower lows and lower highs. What I see is just a range.
So...51 days since the August lows. Where does the time go?
and 87 days since the July highs.
US Market still around 7% off its highs
I'm back from a 5-day fishing vacation with no communications.
What did I miss? lol
I agree with agip that recommending individual stocks like coach d does is not something for the average joe. Among other things, it takes a lot of time to do the research, and to stay on top of it, and it therefore becomes a job--at which point you must ask yourself if it is a good job or not, or the best job that you can have or do, or the best job structuring of those particular tasks.
For instance, I have a friend who was in d's position. He found out that he could make out much better performing the same tasks while employed as a financial advisor, and could retain management of his extended family's portfolios.
Good stuff if you are d and you like what you are doing and how you are doing it--bad if you're like me, and don't believe enough of what you hear to make it worth sacrificing control to both individual company management and the general markets.
I have always believed that only work creates wealth. D might be doing very well, and hats off to him for doing it. I choose a different path, and I also am doing very well. The average joe, unfortunately, is not doing so well--as far as investment vehicles go, he takes a shot at a coarse dartboard, and lets others do the work that is required for the generation of wealth, and hence does not make as much. He needs to do this because he doesn't have enough to invest to enable him to leave the regular job he needs to pay the bills, where his work creates wealth most efficiently.
US markets about to open now on Thursday. One thing I have been doing very slowly is buying some physical gold--nothing big, just little bits here and there. We'll see.
Maserati wrote:
I have always believed that only work creates wealth. D might be doing very well, and hats off to him for doing it. I choose a different path, and I also am doing very well. The average joe, unfortunately, is not doing so well--as far as investment vehicles go, he takes a shot at a coarse dartboard, and lets others do the work that is required for the generation of wealth, and hence does not make as much. He needs to do this because he doesn't have enough to invest to enable him to leave the regular job he needs to pay the bills, where his work creates wealth most efficiently.
.
if even a middle class person saves for 50 years into a simple target date portfolio, he or she will no doubt make giant amounts of money.
You've seen the numbers - for example 50 years, save $5,000 per year, get 10%, you have $7.3 million
If your only goal is to be a millionaire, save $5000 a year for 31 years and you're done.
Just doesn't seem that hard to me.
That's in the past.
And if it were so easy, everyone would have that million bucks in the bank.
And even if they did, they would be senior citizens by the time they did.
And their whole lives, they would have still needed that everyday job to get that $5k to put in annually.
"will no doubt make giant amounts of money"
Change that to the past tense and it's more believable. Going forward, not so much.
Bottom line is that the average joe needs his job, of course. Meaning that he likely does not have the time left over to put the required work into hardcore portfolio management including individual stocks, as does coach d--and even at that, returns are by no means guaranteed, and you have to properly diversify to find yield, like coach d's commodity shorts.
Is the hope that earnings will propel the market higher just a fantasy?
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/15/gloomy-forecast-ahead-its-not-just-wal-mart.html
Igy
Maserati wrote:
That's in the past.
And if it were so easy, everyone would have that million bucks in the bank.
And even if they did, they would be senior citizens by the time they did.
And their whole lives, they would have still needed that everyday job to get that $5k to put in annually.
"will no doubt make giant amounts of money"
Change that to the past tense and it's more believable. Going forward, not so much.
Bottom line is that the average joe needs his job, of course. Meaning that he likely does not have the time left over to put the required work into hardcore portfolio management including individual stocks, as does coach d--and even at that, returns are by no means guaranteed, and you have to properly diversify to find yield, like coach d's commodity shorts.
well you're just guessing about future returns although highish valuations suggest the next 10 years won't be that great.
why don't people save $5000 a year? I dunno. This is America and iphones for the kids costs $2000, and big SUVs aren't extravagant.
agreed about the stocks of course.
And I left out the house - the reason peoples' homes are their biggest investmetn is that it is forced savings - you have to send in the mortgage check and it accumulates at 5% or whatever houses appreciate.
If people had that same approach to stocks and bonds they would in fact be very rich.
sp500 just set a new high in the recovery from the August lows. technicians will like to see that
now down just 5.2% from the July high
agip,
Cheer if you like. Muppets gathering at the door of the Suckers Jamboree, while slick hucksters sell their hokum.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
Cheer if you like. Muppets gathering at the door of the Suckers Jamboree, while slick hucksters sell their hokum.
Igy
ok I'll cheer
emerging markets up 17.4%! from August 25!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWGLAAYdbbcagip,
We'll see if the cheers continue after the last bottle of hokum is sold.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Retort to the sonic bomb:
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/another-recession-warning-retail-sales-show-main-street-households-are-in-deep-trouble/
classic - you read the stockman piece and you think the sky has already fallen in - that there is just a smoking heap of economy, with maybe a little gold mining at the edges.
"September retail sales were grudgingly reported by the Census Bureau this morning and they were absolutely dreadful. This followed an atrocious August report. The MSM couldn’t blame it on snow, cold, flooding, drought, or even swarms of locusts. So they just buried the story in their small print headlines. The propaganda media machine had nothing."
oh man - catastrophe!
Then you look at the numbers expecting to see what, were retail sales down 1%? 5%? 10%? Tell me how much were they down! I can take it!
Facts:
"Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in September from August, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Economists had expected a rise in September of 0.2%. The increase was largely due to a 1.8% month-over-month increase in auto sales." - WSJ
Oh. retail sales rose from August to September. Hmm. Wait, what?
(and as an aside - do retail sales count online purchases? Virtually all of my big purchases are online now - that has to be a drawdown on retail if it isn't counted)
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