Jess Hull progression - nothing to see here

twoggle wrote:

the armdumber no. 1 wrote:

No, you don't know i she is doping.

She is not 7 seconds faster than in 2023, but 6.46 seconds.

Looking at her Mile time of 4:15.34 from 2023 which converts to around 3:56.43, it's more like 5.5 seconds.

Still an enormous improvement.

You know more than WA, why don't you forward your unique knowledge to them? They immediately would ban Hull, and this would be good for the sport. Or do you prefer doped sport?

I was wondering if someone would use the mile times to post the actual improvement. I calculated a 5.8 second improvement for Hull. For Yared Nuguse, I calculated a 5.7 second improvement. Both were in modern shoes, on a fast track and dragged to an amazing time by the world’s best pacers. Hull had a major change in the type of training for the year prior.

Ellie St. Pierre went from a relatively slow 4:02.34 1500m runner to having a 4.3 second improvement in 8 months. But that improvement was run in the 2nd fastest indoor mile time in history!

Nikki Hiltz and Corey McGee had relatively big improvements in one year and they’re nearly senior citizens by some people’s standards. And both of these improvements came after running two rounds. It wouldn’t shock me if they ran even faster this year.

I choose to believe that most or all of these runners are not doping and there are several good reasons for the bigger improvements in the last few years. Thinking everyone is doping is a miserable way to be a fan in my opinion.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

So in the interests of being consistent - this is really "eye opening". Not a direct accusation but the same questions are at play with certain others that have been discussed ad nauseum on the messageboard.

For me my simple question is, how is it possible she has been soooo far off her potential over the last 3-4 seasons, especially as she been exposed to really high level racing with wavelight and of course, modern product? It's that simple?

Okay so she's improved her 3000m - yeah, by almost the same amount as she just did her 1500m time - but this just doesn't add up right now. Put it this way, I don't really see much difference in Mohamed Katir going from 3.36 to 3.28 in a season and it's actually incredibly similar when you then look at the corresponding level that has been attained relative to the WR.

It's even so incredibly similar down to Katir beginning 2021 with a 3.36.59 PR, taking a 3 second bite out of it to 3.33.62 and then the monumental jump to 3.28.76. Hull began this season at 3.57.29, takes a slightly smaller bite out of it at 3.55.97 and then the monumental jump to 3.50.83?

People will point to Hiltz going from 3.59 to 3.55 as some kind of comparison (and others) but really it's not. When you are approaching the limits of your sexes all-time potential (currently sits at 3.49.04) every second gets infinitely tougher.

I just dunno man, not sure what to believe anymore. But all I'll say is that if we were so suspicious over a dark skinned Spanish male of Moroccan descent who did one thing, we have to be equally suspicious over a white blonde Australian female who has basically done the exact same thing, just on the womans side.

kookie2.0 wrote:

No. I am arguing with a doping apologist who thinks no rational, concrete conclusions can be drawn from an established runner suddenly being able to run a time comprable to the most doped up athletes in the history of the sport and who laughably wants to eliminate experience, statistical norms, historical progressions and commonsense from the evaluation of performances in a dope addled sport. When the Ma's army showed up in 92/93 you would have been claiming they were clean despite anyone with even a rudimentary knowledge of sports knowing we were seeing an obvious East Germany redux. The apologists will always cling to the alleged absence of direct proof, knowing full well that such proof is always very rare even for the most blatant dopers. In many ways running is analogous to baseball in that statistics and past performances over decades gives fans a window into credibly performances. When players suddenly started hitting 70 hrs and the once rare 50 hr mark was being achieved by 2nd rate players, it became obvious. Well Hull just suddenly hit 70 hrs.