We've closed this thread to new posts. Please discuss this topic in a new thread given the fact she just won the race outright in 2023. Does that mean that the 2022 cheating allegations definitely have no merit?
All I wanted was for Derek to retract the story if he couldn't wrap up a proven case last week. What he did was good enough, maybe better.
There was nothing to retract. Its her scarlet letter to bare based on her past history. All she can do is keep running clean and hope with time and no further shenanigans that everything will fade away.
here's what i want to understand: she stopped 17 times between miles 90 and 115. these the most stops, and most frequent stops, of her entire race. she idles for 30-60 seconds most times, or walks for 30-60 seconds. a couple of times she idles for up to 3 minutes.
then, at mile 115, her watch allegedly cuts off for 17 minutes (and 1.5 miles), and when it resumes, she stops only 2 times, walks to 2 times, then *runs non-stop for 2 hours and 4 minutes,* up the steepest part of the course. then we see a tiny bit more walking near the finish, but no idling whatsoever up Whitney Portal.
why so many stops between miles 90-115? was she hurting? those miles were downhill and then flat, recovering from the hills of miles 70-90.
to me, it all comes down to what was happening during those 17 minutes after these very frequent stops, when the watch allegedly died, and what happened on the dark, long stretch of Whitney Portal when, to borrow Harvey's words, "no one was watching." it beggars belief that she could have run a two-hour stretch up Whitney Portal without stopping or walking, and with an average HR of 120 for that entire two-hour portion.
Comparing her to other runners doesn't turn the argument in either direction. But this type of information is what needs to be analyzed. I didn't see Derek explain this.
Strongly disagree, and this is coming from the barroom threshold, not the courtroom threshold.
Just comparing Harvey and Ashley, Harvey is absolutely faster in a normal 100 than her, by a lot. His overall endurance is elite (winner of Big Dog's Backyard Ultra, 148+ miles in 24 hours in June, trained like a beast for Barkley), and he has clearly proven that he is elite in the niche combo of heat, hills and distance that Badwater requires.
There is actually no reason to suspect that Paulson, who is not as fast, who does not have the endurance of Lewis, and who has no experience at Badwater, would fly up Father Crowley 34 minutes faster than him on a hot day with the sun straight overhead when he's ahead of his race-winning pace from 2021.
She's obviously a good athlete but that's at shorter distances. She was good-but-not-great with very limited experience in ultras and she's gonna run hard for a 100 for the first time at Badwater and instantly become the best there ever was and leave a legend at the top of his game in her dust? Not plausible at all.
Harvey had a tough day, paricularly in that section. He was more than an hour slower than he’s run it before and on four ocassions he has run that section faster than Ashley Paulson. It would be particularly difficult for anyone to cheat during the daytime and provide a gpx file that made sense.
Tough day, particularly in that section LOL! He was faster than he was when he won the race last year!
I have no theory on what she did or how she did it, but the twin/double theory has been floated out there. That would actually be the ideal spot to do it because it's too dangerous to stop or drive slow near runners and nobody is gonna notice hair with the hat with the cape.
Re the gpx file, look at the link on imgur posted above ... looks like a lot of missing data points.
Harvey had a tough day, paricularly in that section. He was more than an hour slower than he’s run it before and on four ocassions he has run that section faster than Ashley Paulson. It would be particularly difficult for anyone to cheat during the daytime and provide a gpx file that made sense.
Tough day, particularly in that section LOL! He was faster than he was when he won the race last year!
I have no theory on what she did or how she did it, but the twin/double theory has been floated out there. That would actually be the ideal spot to do it because it's too dangerous to stop or drive slow near runners and nobody is gonna notice hair with the hat with the cape.
Re the gpx file, look at the link on imgur posted above ... looks like a lot of missing data points.
You were talking about the TIME Paulson put on Harvey Lewis in that one section. In 2022, Lewis’ official time during the section that includes Father Crowley was 4:12. These are his past times for that section:
There’s no question that he was far slower than he’s been in the past in that section. He was also far slower overall than he has been. Therefore, compared to past runs, this wasn’t his best (and everyone has tough days).
Tough day, particularly in that section LOL! He was faster than he was when he won the race last year!
I have no theory on what she did or how she did it, but the twin/double theory has been floated out there. That would actually be the ideal spot to do it because it's too dangerous to stop or drive slow near runners and nobody is gonna notice hair with the hat with the cape.
Re the gpx file, look at the link on imgur posted above ... looks like a lot of missing data points.
You were talking about the TIME Paulson put on Harvey Lewis in that one section. In 2022, Lewis’ official time during the section that includes Father Crowley was 4:12. These are his past times for that section:
There’s no question that he was far slower than he’s been in the past in that section. He was also far slower overall than he has been. Therefore, compared to past runs, this wasn’t his best (and everyone has tough days).
Different elements every time. Last year it was the heavy headwind coming out of the basin, this year it was hotter and that's going to be brutal in the valley and coming up out of it. Identical time into Panamint, faster up Father Crowley in the heat. From the start line to Darwin, he was running a faster, more consistent (better!) race. To say he was having a tough day before Lone Pine is ridiculous, almost as ridiculous as saying Ashley is good enough to put the jets on him at that point.
You were talking about the TIME Paulson put on Harvey Lewis in that one section. In 2022, Lewis’ official time during the section that includes Father Crowley was 4:12. These are his past times for that section:
There’s no question that he was far slower than he’s been in the past in that section. He was also far slower overall than he has been. Therefore, compared to past runs, this wasn’t his best (and everyone has tough days).
Different elements every time. Last year it was the heavy headwind coming out of the basin, this year it was hotter and that's going to be brutal in the valley and coming up out of it. Identical time into Panamint, faster up Father Crowley in the heat. From the start line to Darwin, he was running a faster, more consistent (better!) race. To say he was having a tough day before Lone Pine is ridiculous, almost as ridiculous as saying Ashley is good enough to put the jets on him at that point.
I wouldn’t say that running over 12 min/mile and far slower than he has run on multiple ocassions is putting the jets on. Here are the observations from Eric Spencer about the different experiences of the 3 leaders (including Ashley):
“—But then she came through Stovepipe looking strong. The start of what I think best explains her final time began. She just crushed that 17 mile climb to Towne Pass. So much so that we let her go ahead to Panamint (mile 72). —my understanding from friends present at Panamint who know their stuff is that she went through the timing station with a minimal stop and proceeded on the climb up Father Crowley and later to Darwin. So her arrival-to-arrival between those stations looks extra quick. —I got to Panamint just after she departed. I’ve never seen heat like that at Panamint, and it kept getting worse and a considerable headwind picked up. Yoshi, Ivan Lopez, and Ashley had started the climb before the conditions intensified, but it was still blazing hot. —I stayed for about 2 hours, and quite simply each top 10 runner’s stop after those top 3 runners was the longest on average that I’ve ever seen. Understandably—it was brutal. They were being strategic in looking after themselves with 63 miles and the 2 worst climbs remaining.”
Looks like Ashley Won the Desert News Marathon yesterday. Lol - She either has the best recovery in the world to set a record on the hardest 100 miler in the world and then win a marathon a week later or she didn't actually run the full 100 miler.
Looks like Ashley Won the Desert News Marathon yesterday. Lol - She either has the best recovery in the world to set a record on the hardest 100 miler in the world and then win a marathon a week later or she didn't actually run the full 100 miler.
This post could be full self unawareness, or there really is a full blown cheating scam going on.
Even if she flubbed a few miles at Badwater then went on to win a marathon a wk later... still a monumental feat. (And/or she cheated in this marathon too and basically doubled down on her perceived lie)
Idk I'm a huge skeptic in general, but not feelin it here.
a guy called Sanya Kanchai here in Thailand did one of the the longest races in the country, pretty sure it was the Ultra Trail Thailand Doi Inthanon (178km), and the next week did a standard 100km, I forget the name... winning them both. And he was 47 at the time, 48 or 49 now. when you are doing so much endurance you recover quicker. i'm not saying you recover fully in a week but even if you're at only 90% and you are significantly better than everyone else running that day, it's enough.
Too many of you are being way too eager to close the books on this one. Why the hurry? Anyone explain why so few data points? There’s no way some Instagram soccer mom can pull this off. I’m not buying any of this. Can some of the Badwater runners speak up? If the data is that strange then she didn’t run the full course.
Looks like Ashley Won the Desert News Marathon yesterday. Lol - She either has the best recovery in the world to set a record on the hardest 100 miler in the world and then win a marathon a week later or she didn't actually run the full 100 miler.
She won at a significantly slower pace for her. She was vocal beforehand on why she was running it and that she would be taking it as slow as she felt needed for her body.
There’s no way some Instagram soccer mom can pull this off. I’m not buying any of this.
She's not just an Instagram soccer mom. She's been running fast races for years. She's done like a gazillion marathons in the 2:30s and 2:40s, sometimes on back to back weekends.
She has a faster marathon PR than past men's champion Harvey Lewis, who as a 46 year old schoolteacher is still one of the top guys at these races.
Do you even know who she is? She is a professional triathlete, marathon runner, etc. She runs Iron Mans regularly and is a well known fitness trainer. She has also ran the Olympic Trials. Far from some random IG soccer mom.
There’s no way some Instagram soccer mom can pull this off. I’m not buying any of this.
She's not just an Instagram soccer mom. She's been running fast races for years. She's done like a gazillion marathons in the 2:30s and 2:40s, sometimes on back to back weekends.
She has a faster marathon PR than past men's champion Harvey Lewis, who as a 46 year old schoolteacher is still one of the top guys at these races.
She will almost certainly be registered for the St George Marathon/1/2 and or the Snow Canyon 1/2 in the next few months (October and November respectively). They don't test at those but let's keep this thread going IMO for that day.
Different elements every time. Last year it was the heavy headwind coming out of the basin, this year it was hotter and that's going to be brutal in the valley and coming up out of it. Identical time into Panamint, faster up Father Crowley in the heat. From the start line to Darwin, he was running a faster, more consistent (better!) race. To say he was having a tough day before Lone Pine is ridiculous, almost as ridiculous as saying Ashley is good enough to put the jets on him at that point.
I wouldn’t say that running over 12 min/mile and far slower than he has run on multiple ocassions is putting the jets on. Here are the observations from Eric Spencer about the different experiences of the 3 leaders (including Ashley):
“—But then she came through Stovepipe looking strong. The start of what I think best explains her final time began. She just crushed that 17 mile climb to Towne Pass. So much so that we let her go ahead to Panamint (mile 72). —my understanding from friends present at Panamint who know their stuff is that she went through the timing station with a minimal stop and proceeded on the climb up Father Crowley and later to Darwin. So her arrival-to-arrival between those stations looks extra quick. —I got to Panamint just after she departed. I’ve never seen heat like that at Panamint, and it kept getting worse and a considerable headwind picked up. Yoshi, Ivan Lopez, and Ashley had started the climb before the conditions intensified, but it was still blazing hot. —I stayed for about 2 hours, and quite simply each top 10 runner’s stop after those top 3 runners was the longest on average that I’ve ever seen. Understandably—it was brutal. They were being strategic in looking after themselves with 63 miles and the 2 worst climbs remaining.”
In one post you state that it was a brutally hot day and that going up Father Crowley at 12 min/mile isn't putting the jets on. Tell me you don't know Badwater without saying you don't know Badwater.
Eric Spencer is wrong in his assessment on each of the top 4-10 runners staying longer in Panamint. And if he stayed there for two hours, he obviously didn't see what Team 100 did going up the hill. I don't know him, but if he's doing a documentary on Ashley, he certainly has a vested interest in her CR performance being legitimate.
Anyways, is it truly your argument that Harvey, who was ahead of his race-winning pace from 2021 through the first 100, was having an off day before he got to Darwin? Because the heat got him (but not Ashley)?
some more data for the 1-4 people interested. as for the "missing" data points, i think that's more an apples vs. oranges (garmin connect vs. strava) thing. strava is always smoother-looking, in my experience, and that's probably the case here as well. so that point should be considered moot imo.
but since a lot of people seem most interested in the climbs, i did some breakdowns of her three main climbs, and highlighted the parts where her HR and pace vs. elevation gain are particularly impressive. i'm totally on the fence about how this was accomplished, despite my username. i just think it's interesting.
Interesting figure re HR and pace vs. elevation gain. Looking at your summary figures her heart rate looks impressive but reasonable to me.
I looked for a bit but had trouble finding much HR data for people that did an all out effort for 24 hours (for example, I couldn't find heart rate data for Aleksander Sorokin's Aug. 2021 24-hour record of 193 miles, or Killian Jornet or Francois Dhaene runs at Hardrock this year.)
Zach Bitter's heart rate data for 24 hours and his 115 miles from Desert Solstice in December 2020 is intersting: https://www.strava.com/activities/4486965798 [He used to have the 100 mile world record, and in the linked event he was at sub-8 minute pace for around the first 50 miles, and then took it really easy. So not really totally on point, but for what it's worth his HR average 121 for the duration including the walking and breaks. In that race his 100-mile split was 17 hours 15 minutes.]
One of the most impressive 24-hour efforts in any sport was Christoph Strasser's absolutely bonkers 637.6 miles biking on the road averaging 26.56 mph. He was biking on a flat course, with an average HR of 136pm and a max HR of 156pm.
I noticed that Ashley Paulson has made her data on Garmin Connect private again. With all the abuse she has gotten on this message board probably not unreasonable. Cyclists and triathletes, like Ashley, often do just bonkers amounts of Zone 2 aerobic training and so are able to maintain impressively low HRs.
